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NVidia GT300 yields under 2%?

Can it be that bad? Sure, it can always be zero.

Let's just assume ALL of Charlie's numbers and sources are 100% correct...its four wafers.

Getting low yields on four wafers is not exactly uncommon. And it especially comes as no surprise for a hot lot as typically hot lots have nearly all the inline inspection metrology steps skipped in order to reduce the cycle-time all the more.

Those inline inspections are present in the flow for standard priority wip for a reason, related to both yield (reworks and cleanups) as well as cost reduction (eliminate known dead wip earlier in the flow).

I really pity anyone who is wasting their time attempting to extrapolate the future health of an entire product lineup based on tentative results from four hot-lotted wafers. That's not a put down to anyone who is actually doing just that, including Charlie, its an honest empathetic response I have for them because they really are wasting their time chasing after something with error bars so wide they can't see the ends of the whiskers from where they stand at the moment.

Now if we were talking about results averaged from say 6-8 lots and a minimum of 100-200 wafers ran thru the fab at standard priority (i.e. with all the standard yield enhancement options at play) then I'd be more inclined to start divining something from the remnants of the tea leaves here.

But just four wafers? Much ado about nothing at the moment, even IF all of the claimed details themselves are true.

This would have been far more interesting had the yields on those four wafers came back as 60% or 80%, again not that such yield numbers could be used to say anything about the average or the stdev of the yield distribution but it would speak to process capability and where there is proven capability there is an established pathway to moving the mean of the distribution to that yield territory.

But getting zero, or near-zero, yield is the so-called trivial result, it says almost nothing about process yield to get four wafers at zero yield. All it takes is one poorly performing machine during one process step and you get four wafers with yield killing particles spewed on them.
 
Thanks for the insight IDC. I think I'll ask to get this thread locked as it doesn't seem to be worth going into any more detail.
 
His main source that he linked to he used a translator but when you use other translators it differs:

He refers to this Translation for the crux of his ramblings:

Google -- NVIDIA GT300 is an Engineering sample of nine will be completed in January of this year's fastest 12 to begin shipping in January.

However if you use BabelFish or Bing:

Babelfish -- NVIDIA makes Engineering sample of GT300 COMPLETE in September, with most speed starts of shipment in December of this year.

Bing -- NVIDIA is GT300 engineering sample completed in September, fastest in December of this year to start of delivery.

A poster named Jolle was the first that tried a different translator and deserves credit.
 
Originally posted by: thilan29
Thanks for the insight IDC. I think I'll ask to get this thread locked as it doesn't seem to be worth going into any more detail.
Click to expand...

Originally posted by: Clinkster
Well, I'm glad this way cleared up. They were still going bananas over this at xtremesystems.
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thilan if I may suggest it, please keep the original thread title and don't ask for the thread to be locked.

If my post added value to yourself and other readers here then it may serve some value to readers who haven't seen it yet and to those folks who are seeing the topic on other forums before coming this direction.

I didn't mean to dismiss the subject of talking about charlie's article or talking about the ramifications of low-yield on small lotsize wafer counts, etc. I just meant to add clarity as to the extent to which we should hold his conclusions with confidence.

xs does well when someone with a little sanity like jumpingjack steps in and injects some logic amidst all the panic and fearmongering, but he's been mia lately. (and no, I am not a poster there, merely a lurker)
 
I like the starkist attitude . Sorry Charlie, YOU STINKY TUNA.

FOR stinking he gets it right alot . Odds are he is right in this article. The odds of VV getting a chip that can compete on the first tap out not good. NOT many have done it the way NV is trying with any successs. New arch on a cell that is playing hardball.
ATI had a hell of a time trying to make the R600 ORginal spec DX10 capable . Failure after failure. Until MS changed the specs , Because NV had nothing and ATI was working with MS on Xbox which gave them a leg up. BUt it hurt ATI ORGINAL DX10 specs were Hard to achieve . And even theR600 failed. THE next gen fixed it.

NV may very well go threw the same thing with the 385.

It was hard on ATI and its cheerleaders The R600. I know Iwas 1.

Fanboisism is more of a game than anything else. I hope . Or there other things going on. Which would be bad.

So as an opposing cheerleader for the red team . YA kickem hard when there down and run up the score . Beat them to submission if possiable . GO RED team go .

Fanbois at his best or Is it worst?
 
Either way, Nvidia price/performance wise will have to at least meet ATI's when they come to market with their new part or they will fail.
 
Originally posted by: Wag
Either way, Nvidia price/performance wise will have to at least meet ATI's when they come to market with their new part or they will fail.
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What are you basing that off of? 4890 is the best price/performance part I have seen in my time as an enthusiast, and it didnt gain ATi anything. They lost $$$ in the last quarter, and gained back 3% of the market share that they had lost the in the previous couple quarters.
 
You claim the 4890 is the best price/performance, other would tend to differ. The 260, was and is still a good deal even now.
 
Originally posted by: Idontcare
xs does well when someone with a little sanity like jumpingjack steps in and injects some logic amidst all the panic and fearmongering, but he's been mia lately. (and no, I am not a poster there, merely a lurker)
Click to expand...

Your first post has been quoted at XS in their thread. 🙂
 
Ya when I was your age I learned something about myself.

My dad started racing in 1959, I was 8 and instantly loved working on the car.
My dad raced for fun and was very threfty. I was really good at making the car run at very early age by the time I was 12 I could build a car complete.

Dad wasn't a winner by anyones standard but my own . I loved how he stayed out of trouble and drove the way I think a Christian in sports should play. I loved to watch him . For myself I dreamt of being a Winner and champion for 12 years.

I finally decided to build a car forself at age 20 . As my younger brother and his friends were able to take upkeep of dads car.

I remember My first race , I had to start in back new car. My foot was shaking so bad I couldn't push throttle down . LOL

Well the way the rules worked low point cars start on the poll . So the next week I was up front.

As we were coming around to get green flag and I said to self . You recall how scarred you was last week in the back . I said ya to self , Than self said them bastards are all behind ya . I swallowed hard . Came infor green And took off for an easy win . Both heat and feature. I won all but 6 races I was in that year 32 feature wins,
And of course all the glory that goes to a champion.

The Thing I learned that year was something that may have Hurt me forever or helped I don't know which it is.

But that first race I won . As I was taking that long saught after Victory lap . I recall saying to myself Is this it . Is this all there is. I was disappointed. I also relized I really didn't like driving a few years later it got me off track.

Because of my belieFs and when being responsiable is actually applicable. I relized as we picked up speed I was less and less in control of what happens to others , Not self .
I relized that if I drove a car as hard as I could the chances of me injuring someone was high . NO this makes me responsiable for my action. It destoyed a really good driver . But the driver never was A driver , He was a car owner builder and that he loves almost sinfully.

I let my son race , and I set a bar for him I didn't think he could achieve but he is faster than hell on the bottom were I Insite my car runs or ya don't drive it . I want control not glory . You show me you can control a car at those speeds I don't care how ya finish but same lap times and that driver will get my stamp of approval. Because that Driver will be a Driver who be a Champion the way I could never be, I cant run the bottom real well myself infact I suck there. LOL. IF I could have things would have turned out differantly .

But running high and hard is risky for my appoint. I not willing to risk his well being . FOr something I find no glory in .

Point is you don't know me If you did instead of dislikeing me , You would hate me . I am honest in my heart as to what I say . I call a rock a rock not a mineral, THe world is a horriable place. If there be a hell this be it. My life has been good but what about the billions I cry for them yet nopthing I do can change anything nothing . TO change things I would have to be like those who have brought us to this place in time . That would be defeat.

DO not say that you understand my fanbois. Because ya don't you couldn't possiably know. I am a pure fanbois, I am a fanbois of the ARCH the tech . I choose along time ago who I believe the Tech leaders are . If you want to compare that to marketing or anything else it may be true for most . But not me not ever.

I have only Hurt 1 person in my whole life because I lost Awareness, It was my best friend. I have never injuryed another since , hopefully thats how my life ends ., If it does I consider myself half assed winner. Why half assed because I never tried to change what so obviously is wrong with us Never trying to help make it better for ALL not just a neighboror a friend . Flat out just not caring, I sicken myself.

OCguy
Lifer

Posts: 12530
Joined: 03/14/2008

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1

Fanbois at his best or Is it worst?

^


I agree, worst. At least you arent afraid to admit it.
 
CES 2010, you can almost bank on that being when the GT300 is unveiled. I've mentioned it many times, Nvidia was really caught off guard this time around and that is what they are aiming for at this point. Don't expect any "new" product from them until then unless we see some 4770'esque low end respins before then.
 
Originally posted by: thilan29
Originally posted by: Idontcare
xs does well when someone with a little sanity like jumpingjack steps in and injects some logic amidst all the panic and fearmongering, but he's been mia lately. (and no, I am not a poster there, merely a lurker)
Click to expand...

Your first post has been quoted at XS in their thread. 🙂
Click to expand...

Cool, hope it adds some value for those folks as well.

While my post dealt with the addressing the statistics involved, I don't want us to overlook the prospects of Charlie's information itself simply being entirely incorrect as SirPauly's post suggests.

I was hoping he'd come back and elaborate more on his post, but that didn't happen so I'll make a further inquiry to him.

Originally posted by: SirPauly
His main source that he linked to he used a translator but when you use other translators it differs:

He refers to this Translation for the crux of his ramblings:
.
.
.
A poster named Jolle was the first that tried a different translator and deserves credit.
Click to expand...

SirPauly, is this from another thread here in the forums or are you and "Jolle" engaged in a discussion on another forum from which these interesting tidbits are coming?

This will be seriously bad PR, second only to getting caught out for completely fabricating an article, if the entire basis of Charlie's article is built around a mistranslation of a blog somewhere.
 
Charlie mentioned that he did some digging. Would he lie?

Kyle confirms Charlie's findings.

FWIW, I heard very similar information from two other sources recently.
Click to expand...

Something is going on in that regard.

Edit: Let's just hope NV plays some tricks with all of us. 🙂
Maybe they will show ES cards on the day AMD lifts NDA.
 
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
FOR stinking he gets it right alot . Odds are he is right in this article. The odds of VV getting a chip that can compete on the first tap out not good.
Click to expand...

FWIW Charlie's article is addressing the ramifications of poor functional yield (real or imagined) which is not the same thing as parametric yield (clockspeed/power-consumption/etc) or design reliability (bugs, does 1+1=2, etc).

Hot lots are done after a tapeout so they can rush whatever functional chips they get out of the fab into the design verification phase so as to generate actionable data regarding the necessity to do a respin versus pulling the trigger on initial production ramp; of which those early lots to come off the line will then be highly scrutinized for early signs of actual yield (both functional and parametric) issues.

This is why functional yield is de-emphasized as a trade-off to aid in reducing cycle-time with hot-lots. They just need enough functional chips from the hot lot as to populate their verification testers to get on with generating the actionable information the company's decision makers need.

(unless the hot lot itself is a process engineering hot lot intended to generate data to aid in the resolution of a yield issue, those types of hot lots exist as well)
 
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I recall saying to myself Is this it . Is this all there is. I was disappointed.
Click to expand...

Isn't it so often the case in life that the journey itself ends up being the memorable/enjoyable part; whereas, the end result of the completion of a particular milestone in life ends up being quite anti-climatic?

I think it is one of those attributes that really defines the human experience of life versus that of most other terra-based lifeforms...our insatiable need for journey which is the driving force behind every civilization reaching milestones.

Flying in our atmosphere wasn't enough, we had to build rocketships and go to the moon. Etc.

Living in the moment is so much more enjoyable than living for the moment, at least that's my personal feeling on the topic.

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I have only Hurt 1 person in my whole life because I lost Awareness
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Oh come now, I find it hard to believe that you didn't hurt a few bonnie-lasses in your day what with your mastery of the poetic prose and all 😉

I'm sure you've heard "you had me at hello" a few times in your life, only to leave the lasses with an achy-breaky when you followed them up with a "sure, but two noweth the treuth of hellos . is to be ONE who haz been experienced with . the sorrows of goodbuys . so, later bitch!" :laugh:

edit: (I made that last part up myself, sorry if my humor is too crass here)
 
Actually I had encounters , Foolish ones . That always ended with apology and gratitude, They were my friends and remain so , I will pay for my folly as we all shall. I love love and I understand sex huge differance.
 
Originally posted by: Idontcare
Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
I recall saying to myself Is this it . Is this all there is. I was disappointed.
Click to expand...

Isn't it so often the case in life that the journey itself ends up being the memorable/enjoyable part; whereas, the end result of the completion of a particular milestone in life ends up being quite anti-climatic?

I think it is one of those attributes that really defines the human experience of life versus that of most other terra-based lifeforms...our insatiable need for journey which is the driving force behind every civilization reaching milestones.

Flying in our atmosphere wasn't enough, we had to build rocketships and go to the moon. Etc.

Living in the moment is so much more enjoyable than living for the moment, at least that's my personal feeling on the topic.
Click to expand...

+1

So true, I always feel a little sad/empty when I finally complete a new PC build/upgrade. The months leading up to the purchases and assembly are the most exciting I find. All the research, combing over countless articles, figuring out exactly what it is I need for my new system, the anticipation of receiving each component in the mail, and the nervousness of putting everything together is much more thrilling to me than actually finishing a build. I'm always relieved when everything works of course, but it is a little anti-climatic once everything is running smoothly. It's exactly as Nemesis said, "Huh. Is this it? Am I done?"

I can't wait until I have to upgrade my system again. 🙂 I look forward to comparing ATI to Nvidia, AMD to Intel, HD vs SSD, ??? vs ??? when I next upgrade.

Journey for the win!
 
Until the GT300 or the HD 5870 are in full production, I doubt there's any way to come up with an accurate yield. Heck, even after a card has been in production for months we still have a tough time getting yield figures.
 
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