News Nvidia cuts 4Q18 revenue guidance

[Hitman928]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/nvidia-shares-tank-after-chipmaker-cuts-guidance.html

The company lowered its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter citing "deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China."

Nvidia reports earnings on Feb. 14, and now expects quarterly revenue of $2.20 billion, down from previously stated guidance of $2.70 billion. The company also said quarterly margin will be impacted by charges related to "current market conditions."

In addition, sales of certain high-end GPUs using NVIDIA's new Turing™ architecture were lower than expected.

So Apple, Intel, and Nvidia all have lowered revenue expectations and cited China as a main source of lowered revenue. AMD reports earnings tomorrow, it will be interesting to see where they end up in terms of revenue guidance and the 'China problem' as well.

 

[AtenRa]

Its not only the gaming market but Datacenter fell as well, next quarter revenue (Q1 2020 FY) could be even lower than 2B.

 

[JoeRambo]

Great to see customers properly punishing company that got too greedy. That is capitalism in action, and one can bet a farm that NV beancounters have swift response ready.

Plenty of people were buying previuos flagship 1080 TI ( amazing card at competitive price compared to its siblings, i have one). Now RTX stuff was and is ridiculously priced. I can afford it, but there is zero reason to do so from performance point, and from RTX features there is by a mile not enough incentive to buy one.

 

[PingSpike]

They probably did the right thing strategically(for NVidia) by bringing RTX in this generation, so that when better 7nm RTX arrive in 1-2 years, there might actually be some decent RT Software to run on them. If they waited for the next release, they would still have the chicken and egg problem with no software because there were no cards to run it on. New technology usually has a rocky start, take the rocky start in this: The "RT preview" generation. The real RT generation starts a year+ down the road.

I've thought that as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they originally planned to be more aggressive on price but the mining bust left them with an inventory problem they had to solve so they overpriced the RTX to help unload the old stock.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Wow. Its really great news. Now we have to wait longer for new and better hardware.

I guess playing all those outdated console ports is just enough for some people...

Not only are there few if any games that use ray tracing, there is a lack of games in general that show any kind of innovation that would lead someone to upgrade. Just sequel after sequel in every genre. I do not mean to excuse nVidia's pricing and lack of performance increase, because that is certainly the main problem, but the game market IMO is very stagnant. I was just looking at the "new" pc games coming out on PC gamer: another Resident Evil, another Tropico, another Doom, another Metro, and on and on.

 

[maddie]

I got a 2080 which was roughly the same price as the 1080ti for roughly the same performance. I got a couple new features (that are not really valuable for me), but at that price point it seems like it was better to get the 2080 over the 1080ti.

However, I had been waiting for the reveal in the hopes that we'd have a shift of the price/performance curves, and unfortunately that didn't happen.

Moore's Law is slowing, and since 7nm is just getting off the ground I think it will be a little while before we get that large generational improvement that we've come to expect over the last 30 years of significant semiconductor process improvements. Maybe when 7nm ramps up we will get another jump, but until then it seems we are treading water a bit.

My 2080 is a nice card though, plays games great and runs very quiet. I'm happy with the purchase but would have liked to have spend a few hundred less $$$$ for the same performance. I was coming from a GTX680, so the increase for me was substantial.

-AG

I think this is key.

If you need a card, then the 2xxx series will take the sale, but for the usual generational upgraders, baring the ultimate crowd, not an urgent purchase.

 

[sontin]

Not only are there few if any games that use ray tracing, there is a lack of games in general that show any kind of innovation that would lead someone to upgrade. Just sequel after sequel in every genre. I do not mean to excuse nVidia's pricing and lack of performance increase, because that is certainly the main problem, but the game market IMO is very stagnant. I was just looking at the "new" pc games coming out on PC gamer: another Resident Evil, another Tropico, another Doom, another Metro, and on and on.

There wont be any raytracing games without Turing. It just the typical life circle of new features.

But that is the problem for nVidia. Those 1:1 console ports are just not advanced enough. Raytracing is resetting the clock but people dont see any benefits of it. So now they think that 4K with all those rasterizing artefacts looks better than 1440p with Raytracing.

I guess the next round on 7nm with new console will give nVidia the next boost.

 

[NTMBK]

Not only are there few if any games that use ray tracing, there is a lack of games in general that show any kind of innovation that would lead someone to upgrade. Just sequel after sequel in every genre. I do not mean to excuse nVidia's pricing and lack of performance increase, because that is certainly the main problem, but the game market IMO is very stagnant. I was just looking at the "new" pc games coming out on PC gamer: another Resident Evil, another Tropico, another Doom, another Metro, and on and on.

Yeah, nothing like it was back in the good old days of the 90s, with the second Doom, the third Duke Nukem and the second Civ!

 

[coercitiv]

Raytracing is resetting the clock but people dont see any benefits of it.

People don't see the benefits because there's none to see - with mind or vision. Raytracing as tech is the future, but people paying upfront for that future is not the way it works in free markets.

Some posters here have this weird idea that gamers might as well start paying monthly checks for big corporate R&D: it's like some twisted dystopian world view in which consumers face the worst of capitalism and socialism combined, while companies yield the benefits. Bemoaning new tech development hardship just after the biggest boom this market has ever seen in terms of sales is comical and very sad.

Years after years we were told 4k is the future, we need to invest in 4k capable hardware, gaming in 4k is a thing of beauty. The future was 4k, the future was glorious VR, the hardware was expensive and early adopter tax was unforgiving. And what happens when RTX entered the scene? 4k is suddenly less important than real time reflections, high refresh gaming is no longer a desired topic, rasterization is the new bitmap sprite, and gamers are morally responsible for the future of graphics development.

 

[Arkaign]

People don't see the benefits because there's none to see - with mind or vision. Raytracing as tech is the future, but people paying upfront for that future is not the way it works in free markets.

Some posters here have this weird idea that gamers might as well start paying monthly checks for big corporate R&D: it's like some twisted dystopian world view in which consumers face the worst of capitalism and socialism combined, while companies yield the benefits. Bemoaning new tech development hardship just after the biggest boom this market has ever seen in terms of sales is comical and very sad.

Years after years we were told 4k is the future, we need to invest in 4k capable hardware, gaming in 4k is a thing of beauty. The future was 4k, the future was glorious VR, the hardware was expensive and early adopter tax was unforgiving. And what happens when RTX entered the scene? 4k is suddenly less important than real time reflections, high refresh gaming is no longer a desired topic, rasterization is the new bitmap sprite, and gamers are morally responsible for the future of graphics development.

And thus far we've seen exactly zero scenarios where the trade-off is both worth the lower framerate AND higher price to buy in.

I won't outright say it's impossible and will never show up for this gen of RTX cards, but it certainly isn't giving me very much confidence. Ironically big AAA flagship type stuff rely so heavily on consoles that I expect only cursory support there. Wildcard might be PC or PCVR indie/AA devs coming up with some cool uses for it that aren't so punishing on the hardware.

20XX is not a compelling purchase right now for almost everyone in every price bracket of any volume. The delay from 10xx launch to this gave tons of gamers immense time and choices to go with something already.

Buyers of :

1050/1050ti/RX470/480/570/580/1060/1070/1070ti/Vega/1080/1080ti, and all of the AIB/OC editions thereof, have at all of those price points, nothing to re-buy into that offers a compelling upgrade whatsoever.

Complicating things is that buyers further have better options $/perf just buying a used card, should that be something they're comfortable with.

And the under $350 range is not filled out at all. It looks like some $200+ skus are hitting, but nothing that will replace what was sub $200 1050ti etc.

Nvidia at this point is competing with it's own past, and losing.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Yeah, nothing like it was back in the good old days of the 90s, with the second Doom, the third Duke Nukem and the second Civ!

Of course it has always been this way, but now we are on the 4th, 5th, 6th generation of a lot of games.

 

[LTC8K6]

Of course it has always been this way, but now we are on the 4th, 5th, 6th generation of a lot of games.

Movies, music, video games.

They just keep recycling them every few years.

 

[sontin]

People don't see the benefits because there's none to see - with mind or vision. Raytracing as tech is the future, but people paying upfront for that future is not the way it works in free markets.

If people dont pay upfront their wont be any advancement. Who do you think are paying for the next product? The current buyer.

If nobody buying the products new products are delayed. So you have to wait even longer to get to the future...

 

[railven]

I guess the market is just a bunch of "entitled SJWs", as certain individuals were claiming. Yeah, that's all it is. No siree, no blame with nVidia whatsoever.

Living rent free in this bold knight's head since 2019!

Hugs and kisses!

 

[railven]

Nvidia is gonna pay hard for the price hikes. Wonder how things would turn around with Pascal drying up and if they drop prices...with half their stock value wiped out, me thinks the gold shower days are over!

Here is hoping to cheaper RTX 2.0 series! (or Intel to save us all, doubtful ).

 

[thigobr]

My only fear is that if R&D and production costs are really getting up they might choose to not launch any new gaming focused products and innovation might stall.
What they are seeing is that there is always a limit to what consumers are willing to pay and they are probably crossing that limit...

 

[kawi6rr]

My only fear is that if R&D and production costs are really getting up they might choose to not launch any new gaming focused products and innovation might stall.
What they are seeing is that there is always a limit to what consumers are willing to pay and they are probably crossing that limit...

I don't think innovation will stall out they'll still need to create products people want and are willing to pay for.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Nvidia is gonna pay hard for the price hikes. Wonder how things would turn around with Pascal drying up and if they drop prices...with half their stock value wiped out, me thinks the gold shower days are over!

Here is hoping to cheaper RTX 2.0 series! (or Intel to save us all, doubtful ).

-Or from another perspective, the golden showers are just beginning

 

[Mopetar]

-Or from another perspective, the golden showers are just beginning

Just as long as they don't try to tell me that their lack of a windfall is a kind of rainfall.

 

[Guru]

Who knows, they are still the best in terms of GPUs but that share price went nuts during the past year or two. I'll still probably buy my next card from them should they lower prices. I sold my 1080 ti because the prices didn't make sense and am just using my back up 1070 right now. It does the job even at 1440p 144hz.

A lot of uneducated people who don't even know how to start up a computer are buying Nvidia stock based on misguided and misleading info by Nvidia itself overselling its capabilities and market strength.

If you've watched closely you'll know that their $200+ value stock was WAYYYY overblown. I think their real stock value is probably about $50 and I think AMD stock is way undervalued. AMD are well positioned in the CPU and GPU market.

 

[StrangerGuy]

Not only are there few if any games that use ray tracing, there is a lack of games in general that show any kind of innovation that would lead someone to upgrade. Just sequel after sequel in every genre. I do not mean to excuse nVidia's pricing and lack of performance increase, because that is certainly the main problem, but the game market IMO is very stagnant. I was just looking at the "new" pc games coming out on PC gamer: another Resident Evil, another Tropico, another Doom, another Metro, and on and on.

It doesn't help that AAA games are becoming more and more like interactive movies with the same old forgettable tired game mechanics tackled in as an afterthought; I'm increasingly feeling why bother playing them myself or even build the gaming hardware for it, when I don't really miss out on that much anyway by watching Youtubers streaming them on 60 FPS, for the low, low price of $0. Also, the interesting indie games also don't need much HW horsepower to begin with.

Zelda: BOTW for all it faults and Mario Odyssey was the only games I played lately that actually felt like games, which is why I'm loving the Switch so much.

 

[frozentundra123456]

A lot of uneducated people who don't even know how to start up a computer are buying Nvidia stock based on misguided and misleading info by Nvidia itself overselling its capabilities and market strength.

If you've watched closely you'll know that their $200+ value stock was WAYYYY overblown. I think their real stock value is probably about $50 and I think AMD stock is way undervalued. AMD are well positioned in the CPU and GPU market.

I agree nVidia was way overvalued, but no way AMD is still way undervalued. They will undoubtedly take some share of the cpu market, but most likely not a much as the hype predicts, and their gpu division is a complete disaster.