That's a great point indeed. I think AMD will have learned from this and not allow for 1.5 years to pass between flagship cards. Even it means going back to the old days of releasing refreshes with 10-15% more performance, they will have to do that. However, the situation is a lot more complex than that because NV users keep paying nearly double for a 980 over 290X, $80-100 more for 970 over after-market 290, nearly double for 980 CF over 290X CF/295X2, and still purchase 750Ti over much faster R9 270/270X, or 960 over the superior 290/280X. Even if AMD showed up on time, they have a brand issue at hand and extremely loyal customers with the competitor.
You will see a similar situation on March 1st when Samsung unveils the new Samsung S6 on 14nm 7420 SoC. It will have:
1) Superior screen quality to the iPhone 6/6+
2) The overall world's fastest smartphone SOC
3) Superior front and rear cameras than iPhone 6/6+
4) Standard 32GB of storage on-board with microSD expansion
5) By far superior battery life in the real world usage, with 50% recharging in 30-40 min, and nearly a week of low-power usage state battery life
6) Cheaper price
But none of these factors will allow Samsung S6 to outsell iPhone 6/6+ worldwide. None of these factors will allow the Samsung S6 to have the same resale value of the iPhones in 2-3 years either. Often market perception trumps the actual quality of a product.
There are many examples of products in the world from Beats to Bose to BMW where brand sells the product despite superior products available. Beats and Bose are probably the best 2 examples in the audio world where generally average to mediocre products sell at exorbitant prices because of marketing and brand value. No knowledgeable and informed consumers on audio would purchase Beats and Bose over AKG/Sennheiser/Shure/Audeze/Beyerdynamic, etc. but yet Beats makes something like 65% of the world's headphone profits and probably has similar market share.
I am not saying NV only makes average to mediocre products ,but that even
when NV does in fact release turds like FX5200/5500/GTS450/GTX550/GTX650/650Ti/960, they still sell, and sell very well. That is the power of brand name and marketing where the high quality of your high-end / premium line allows you to sell inferior products in lower market segments at much higher prices than you normally would have been able to get away with. AMD has no such benefits at all. It's also why the average gamer would easily take a GTX770/960 over an after-market R9 290 and why people actually paid $100-150 more for 780 over 290 and $150 more for 770 4GB over 280X.
I'll give you another 2 examples that blew my mind.
Tide which is considered Procter & Gamble's premium laundry detergent in Canada and United states is a budget/mid-range P&G laundry detergent brand in Europe and Asia. Procter & Gamble's premium laundry detergent in those regions of the world is actually Ariel or other P&G branded products. Want another example?
Everyone in North America or UK knows that P&G's
Oral-B Pro-Health / Pro-Expert toothpaste is a premium brand and it competes directly with Colgate's premium toothpastes. This is not the toothpaste that competes on price with AquaFresh or some other lower brands.
Oral-B Pro-Health - Premium toothpaste in North America
Go to many parts of Central Europe or Asia and Oral-B sells
identical toothpaste called Blend-A-Med Pro-Expert but it's priced as as mid-range / budget toothpaste (about 50% of the cost of Colgate) because it cannot possibly compete with the established Colgate brand. That is the advantage Colgate has accumulated over decades of market presence and competitive advantage in those regions before P&G arrived. You can see some mind-blowing scenarios where in Israel or UAE or some poorer Central Asian countries where you can hardly find Pepsi products and mostly everyone loves Coca-Cola. You'd think Pepsi makes horrible products from such observations but it's simply the power of marketing in those regions.
Just like NIKE sells hundreds of millions of running shoes, despite them being inferior in function and performance to Saucony's Kinvara or Cortana lines or Asics' / Brooks runners. You can spend all day trying to tell someone with Nike Air Max that their shoes are crap for running but they don't care. What they care is what they believe, not what the real world results are, even if they are verified by professional runners, like Runner's magazine and so on.
^ THAT is the power of marketing.
If you look at where NV is gaining the most market share, per their financial reports and JHH commentary, it's Asia and South America. Asia and South America typically tend to be countries where people are crazy obsessed about brand names and brands value, and they especially love premium and/or American brands. It's countries where Coca-Cola, Apple, BMW, and many popular American brands sell (as well as premium Italian fashion/cars, etc.). That means in many countries like Brazil, Russia, Central Europe, Asia where stronger brand names and higher prices usually and historically have equated to better products (you need to live in those places for years to understand the historical significance of American brands and brand value and how people perceive more expensive = better), AMD has 0 chance against NV in those markets unless it changes its strategy completely.
AMD is basically like P&G trying to sell Oral-B Pro-Expert Toothpaste to countries where Colgate is the established brand for 10-15 years. Even a company like P&G with billions of marketing dollars backing it cannot beat Colgate in those markets.
You need the world's best marketing and supply chain execution strategy if you want to claw back market share against established brands in highly populated countries where for a lot of consumers brands and what their friends think is 90% of their purchase:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...owth-by-dominating-jakarta-stalls-retail.html