I used to work a siesmic crew, you see by creating an explosion and examining the shock wave against what an oil feild shock wave looks like you can be pretty sure there is oil underground. You see its called science not a guess, Saudi Arabia who has most of the worlds easy to get oil is already having to resort to horizontal drilling and pumping water into the ground to keep producing at current levels.
One of my siesmic buddies spent a year in the desert on a crew.
"Simmons didn't. Instead, two years ago, he pulled about 200 technical papers from the files of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and performed his own assessment. His conclusion: The Saudis are increasingly straining to drag oil out of aging fields and could suffer a "production collapse" at any time."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industrie...rgy/2005-10-16-oil-1a-cover-usat_x.htm
I had lunch with a comproller for BP when I was in Barbados on vacation, he was from
Europe, he was quit lamentfull of the prospect of the future of oil basically he said there isn't one that it is an industry in decline.
http://www.energy.gov/engine/content.do?BT_CODE=OIL
"One way to prevent an oil supply disruption is to ensure our domestic production of oil is maintained. Remaining U.S. oil fields are becoming increasingly costly to produce because much of the easy-to-find oil has already been recovered. Yet, for every barrel of oil that flows from U.S. fields, nearly two barrels remain in the ground. Better technology is needed to find and produce much of this ?left-behind? oil,"
OK now take note of this, and this is what I said, EASY to GET OIL, oil will always be around but the cost to get it out will be prohibitive if even possible.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html
"Proved reserves are estimated quantities that analysis of geologic and engineering data demonstrates with reasonable certainty are recoverable
under existing economic and operating conditions"
http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm...ature5/?fs=www7.nationalgeographic.com
"Yet as the Enterprise drillers know, slaking the world's oil thirst is harder than it used to be. The old sources can't be counted on anymore. On land the lower 48 states of the U.S. are tapped out, producing less than half the oil they did at their peak in 1970. Production from the North Slope of Alaska and the North Sea of Europe, burgeoning oil regions 20 years ago, is in decline. Unrest in Venezuela and Nigeria threatens the flow of oil. The Middle East remains the mother lode of crude, but war and instability underscore the perils of depending on that region. "
"Before 1998, I was on the side that said, 'Technology solves all problems,' " says Roger Anderson of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. "The problem is, after $12 oil, oil companies responded by merging and firing large portions of their technical staff."
Now, the International Energy Agency in Paris estimates that $5 trillion in new spending is needed over the next 30 years to improve exploration and production"
I got stuff like this all day buddy. I never said oil was running out I said peak production and easy to get oil and we are looking at decades not centuries of an oil economy,when people beatch about prices at 3$ a gallon they are in for a rude awakening.
BTW I'm not in favor of 3$ price fix on gas I am in favour of gov't regulation of the auto industry and power industry tho. When the gov't gave Outboard boat engine manufacturers a deadline of 2005 to get rid of 2 stroke pollution engines they met and exceeded pollution standards by switching to either 4 stroke or direct fuel injection engines. All this before 2001 now the auto industry already creates clean burning fuel efficient engines but they can do better.
105 MPG and note the date, 2001