No recovery in 2010 says Harvard...

[Dari]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Yes, I am aware of what I wrote. But I still dont understand how what I wrote above rebuts what I wrote there. The feds are still dealing with inflation\deflation in both cases. Only according to this guy they dont take into account asset appreciation. Which in the case of the housing bubble if they did could have cooled the market before it got so big it imploded.

Because it may have forced their hand and they wanted to milk the upswing of the business cycle for as long as possible, irrespective of what the risks to that was. As Friedrich von Hayek said roughly 70 years ago, this was nothing more than state planning on the part of the Federal Reserve when they should've been nothing more than good custodians of the interest rate.

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: OrByte
Harvard can't be right....

There is an economic "boom" just around the corner.

Don't you guys remember the stimulus(s) ???

Which one?

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Why do you call him a grad student? He's a full professor.
2004?present Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University and William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School

Edit: What does he mean by Safe Haven Status USA has?

Edit2: I like this guy he is one of the few who sees China as our best friend I've been talking about for years.

Treasury notes with negative yields while back... we get a phenomenal deal on our deficit financing. Think 0% lifetime APR.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: SickBeast

Originally posted by: Zebo
Why do you call him a grad student? He's a full professor.
2004?present Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History, Harvard University and William Ziegler Professor of Business Administration at the Harvard Business School

Edit: What does he mean by Safe Haven Status USA has?

Edit2: I like this guy he is one of the few who sees China as our best friend I've been talking about for years.

I edited the op to reflect that he's a prof.

As far as the Safe Haven status goes, I think he's referring to the ability of the US to protect itself with its military. Apparently the US spends as much on its military as the rest of the world combined. US companies and assets are "safe" from aggressors.

I'm not sure he sees China as a "friend" to the US. The two countries are inextricably bound at this point. It's definitely a codependent relationship. If the US gets too protectionist, everything could unravel. There are signs that this may happen as well.

Wow you couldn't be more wrong...

He's talking about the fact that whenever shit hits the fan, investors load up on U.S. Treasuries. This drive's down the yields and make our deficit financing (debt) super cheap.

 

[TheSlamma]

I don't really see anything amazing about predicting the economy won't get better in 2010. Honestly I don't see how anyone can think it will get better before then.. What jobs are going to be hiring?

Machines have replaced humans in so many jobs and the rest have been sent overseas. We just don't have as much work to be done as we have people here.

 

[chess9]

Thanks for that article. Very informative stuff.

-Robert

 

[Zebo]

Main reason we will not recover is we have to many deadbeats. Most economic models do not figure in the sociological and anthropological but instead rely on models of the past. A past which had different mores, morals, atmospherics, etc. I have some in my family (doesn't everyone nowadays?) kids, now men, who grew up upper middle class and pissed their life away and are deadbeats. Unskilled, immoral, undisciplined, noncommittal, uneducated and basically totally unemployable. There are millions of them in our prisons, in section 8 housing, everywhere - even on college campuses and in the workplace. A wealthy productive society can not exist with so many deadbeats. And look at congress now, more more more - no one is a libertarian when it's needed most..alas it will be forced upon us by the market. I am virtually certain now we are headed for GD 2.0 AND will stay there for a very long time.

 

[Hacp]

Its pretty interesting. When Bush was president, the recession was projected to last no further than 2009. Now that Obama's taken over and spent billions we don't have, the recession is projected to last up to 10 years.

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Yes, I am aware of what I wrote. But I still dont understand how what I wrote above rebuts what I wrote there. The feds are still dealing with inflation\deflation in both cases. Only according to this guy they dont take into account asset appreciation. Which in the case of the housing bubble if they did could have cooled the market before it got so big it imploded.

Yes, excellent points. Greenspan screwed the pooch by keeping interest rates low. He's admitted as much. In his defense, it looked good at the time and from a distance. He couldn't predict housing values would go to hell in a handbasket, or that the derivatives market would spiral out of control. He should have seen some retrenchment in housing values however....Perhaps if he'd been a little smarter he would have saved us from the wholesale loss of home values by letting interest rates rise? The decline in home values might have been modest and manageable. There are some good lessons in this whole affair, and economists now have a whole new playground to infest with their "drugs" (ideas).

-Robert

 

[Zebo]

Interest rate low is a minor factor when home prices are rising 20% per annum. Perhaps we need to look at the other government agency - congress - who guarantees every loan known to man making almost any loan a win/win proposition for banks?

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Main reason we will not recover is we have to many deadbeats. Most economic models do not figure in the sociological and anthropological but instead rely on models of the past. A past which had different mores, morals, atmospherics, etc. I have some in my family (doesn't everyone nowadays?) kids, now men, who grew up upper middle class and pissed their life away and are deadbeats. Unskilled, immoral, undisciplined, noncommittal, uneducated and basically totally unemployable. There are millions of them in our prisons, in section 8 housing, everywhere - even on college campuses and in the workplace. A wealthy productive society can not exist with so many deadbeats. And look at congress now, more more more - no one is a libertarian when it's needed most..alas it will be forced upon us by the market. I am virtually certain now we are headed for GD 2.0 AND will stay there for a very long time.

The U.S. population is richer and more well educated than it ever has been. We set new records for college graduates as a percentage of the population every single year. Frankly, this nonsense doesn't really make any sense. Deadbeats?

 

[Zebo]

Sure. That's we we are off shoring like crazy even high tech and import H1B's for those jobs we can't quite yet.

Educated in what? Basket weaving 101, or worse, economics? India and China graduates a order of magnitude more science and engineering grads as we do and companies are making the move over there daily.

 

[First]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Sure. That's we we are off shoring like crazy even high tech and import H1B's for those jobs we can't quite yet.

Educated in what? Basket weaving 101, or worse, economics? India and China graduates a order of magnitude more science and engineering grads as we do and companies are making the move over there daily.

rofl. I know facing facts is hard, but when your entire argument centers on subjective shit like "basket weaving" instead of hard data on college graduation rates and superior schooling techniques compared to prior generations, there's really not much to talk about. And people coming over from other countries and contributing to our science and tech become American citizens, they're part of American culture. Welcome to immigration trends dating back 200 years.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: Hacp
Its pretty interesting. When Bush was president, the recession was projected to last no further than 2009. Now that Obama's taken over and spent billions we don't have, the recession is projected to last up to 10 years.

Yup, the early "09 Recovery" were way wrong.

 

[TheSlamma]

Originally posted by: Hacp
Its pretty interesting. When Bush was president, the recession was projected to last no further than 2009. Now that Obama's taken over and spent billions we don't have, the recession is projected to last up to 10 years.

Obama needs to work harder to put food on your family.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Topic Title: No recovery in 2010 says Harvard...

Bernanke says we will recover by 2010 in a testimony to congress, stocks jump 200+ points.
Which to believe...

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: Evan

Originally posted by: Zebo
Sure. That's we we are off shoring like crazy even high tech and import H1B's for those jobs we can't quite yet.

Educated in what? Basket weaving 101, or worse, economics? India and China graduates a order of magnitude more science and engineering grads as we do and companies are making the move over there daily.

rofl. I know facing facts is hard, but when your entire argument centers on subjective shit like "basket weaving" instead of hard data on college graduation rates and superior schooling techniques compared to prior generations, there's really not much to talk about. And people coming over from other countries and contributing to our science and tech become American citizens, they're part of American culture. Welcome to immigration trends dating back 200 years.

There are more students in the top 24th percentile in China than in the entire United States. In India, it's the top 28th percentile. Zebo is right; you cannot underestimate or ignore India and China. The end result of what is happening is that we will have the exact same quality of life as them.