No New Graphics Architectures in 2008, says AMD

[TheSlamma]

I hope AMD is firing management where needed. cause taking a year out of this market is a big mistake.

 

[BlueAcolyte]

They haven't fired Hector yet...

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: BlueAcolyte
They haven't fired Hector yet...

they aren't going to ... he is firmly in charge ... for now

he said will NOT step down in April when his contract is up for renewal

 

[Munky]

Just because there's no new architecture, doesn't mean Ati can't produce competitive products. Technically, the r420 was not a new architecture either, being mostly a r300 derivative, but it still beat the nv40 in performance. Granted, the r300 was a much stronger starting point at the time than the r600 is for this generation, but I don't agree with all those claiming Ati is doomed for the next year.

 

[RussianSensation]

Originally posted by: njdevilsfan87
What the hell is AMD blaming ATI for. I actually blame AMD for the problems ATI was/is having.

AMD is going to have to writedown goodwill associated with the purchase of ATI. My understanding is that ATI missed the introduction of HD 2900 series and cards that follow it allowing NV to control the DX10 space for the most part. The estimates are that AMD overpaid roughly 20% for ATI, but we won't know until next week.

More importantly, ATI lost a lot of sales related to selling chipsets to Intel due to acquisition so the value of ATI was already reduced as a part of the transaction to begin with. The issue now is that to return to profitability AMD will do everything to please investors in the SHORT-TERM which means cutting costs left right and center and taking away attention from AMD's 4 year processor design fiasco by focusing investors attention on how poorly ATI is doing lately. In the long-term though they are hurting themselves only as ATI needs product to remain competitive, not to mention employee morale must be all-time low.

And munky, you are right that you can be competitive with old generation tech assuming improvements in manufacturing processes which lets you ramp clock speeds which is how X850 competed against 400mhz clocked 6800U. But R680 is going to be multi-chip design from what I've read. Therefore, now you introduce additional risk of hardware scaling and programming complications. Crossfire scaling hasn't really been that great.

However, you still have to commit funds towards research because sooner or later you'll have to introduce a new gen product. Without having it in development, you'll still end up behind no matter what.

Also let's not forget that ATI is doing so poorly despite having revenue from Xbox360 and the Wii. This shows how important it is to produce competitive products in the desktop space (and notebook market where ATI has completely flopped last 1.5 years).

 

[Regs]

I think ill being doing as n7 said, and completely give up on AMD. I'll likely build a Penyrn or Nethlem system with my tax return next year in the Spring. I figure if AMD still has nothing to show in the Spring next year, they never will.

Maybe AMD can have a Cinderella story in 09'.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Originally posted by: munky
Just because there's no new architecture, doesn't mean Ati can't produce competitive products. Technically, the r420 was not a new architecture either, being mostly a r300 derivative, but it still beat the nv40 in performance. Granted, the r300 was a much stronger starting point at the time than the r600 is for this generation, but I don't agree with all those claiming Ati is doomed for the next year.

They are doomed. Look at it this way. Nvidia has released a card that sells for $300 that beats anything AMD can produce at any price point. All they have to do is occupy the $500+ market with a card that has no equal. People willing to pay that much for a video card have no competitor so will definately buy it. Then they can revamp the $300 lineup with another card that further outperforms AMD's offerings. There is no way AMD can get more out of the R600 architecture. If they could, they would have already. They have had a full year to do it.

 

[thilanliyan]

Originally posted by: Zstream
Now you want AMD to continue releasing products that are behind the competition for the next year and lose a ton of money? I am as mad as you, surely I can expect prices to sky rocket now but it is what it is.

Just stick it out and want till 2009, save the money and buy a nice pc then.

What I mean is if they release worse products AND they're market share goes down as a result of this...they have even less capital to invest in R&D, which will make their future products suffer as well. They can't continue on this path or they really will be in trouble.

Who knows...maybe 2009 will be better for them but as TheSlamma mentioned, 1 year in the computer industry is a LONG time.

I really hope they take that year and do something useful with it...then we'll all benefit as well.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: munky
Just because there's no new architecture, doesn't mean Ati can't produce competitive products. Technically, the r420 was not a new architecture either, being mostly a r300 derivative, but it still beat the nv40 in performance. Granted, the r300 was a much stronger starting point at the time than the r600 is for this generation, but I don't agree with all those claiming Ati is doomed for the next year.

Yup. As long as they stay competitive in the Midrange Market they'll be ok, perhaps even better off than they would be trying to be King of the Hill right now. They probably have realized that they were on a course to failure, so it's better to halt that course and start a new one.

^^conjecture^^

 

[Deathray2K]

I don't think ATi will be competitive even in the midrange market much longer. NVidia is readying to release the 9200 and 9800. The 9200 will effectively be their new midrange card, with the 8800GT (I believe, maybe the 512MB GTS) essentially becoming the low-end. This is going to further lower the 8800s' prices, and I just don't see how ATi is going to combat that without even any new architecture to bolster their high-end.

 

[Greenman]

Why does everyone think that having the highest performing card is all that matters? I had always thought that the money was in the low end and midrange, is that not correct?

 

[thilanliyan]

Originally posted by: Greenman
Why does everyone think that having the highest performing card is all that matters? I had always thought that the money was in the low end and midrange, is that not correct?

It is but what if say the 8800 series becomes the midrange/lowend and ATI has nothing to compete with...they're gonna be totally screwed, unless they chop prices heavily.

 

[MegaWorks1]

Well I'm buying two 3870 for my next CrossFire setup on a intel X38 board, hope that helps AMD.

 

[SickBeast]

Originally posted by: keysplayr2003
This might mean AMD is pulling resources toward Fusion.

Or that they're just going multi-core (and multi-GPU), which is what the R680 rumours point toward.

 

[Wreckage]

My prediction is that the R700 will be the last high end GPU from AMD.

 

[bryanW1995]

if they GET to the R700.

AMD is rapidly approaching the event horizon. If I was a lemming on that ship I'd be jumpin' off quick....

 

[Killrose]

Originally posted by: SickBeast

Or that they're just going multi-core (and multi-GPU), which is what the R680 rumours point toward.[/quote]

I'd guess there going to call it good for awhile with multi-GPU untill things get better? but I hope they have at least some sort of team working on the next gen. I dont think they have finished optimizing the 3800 series core yet, the power consumption is higher than it should be and we will probably see improvements with new revisions I would hope.

 

[taltamir]

Originally posted by: thilan29

Originally posted by: Greenman
Why does everyone think that having the highest performing card is all that matters? I had always thought that the money was in the low end and midrange, is that not correct?

It is but what if say the 8800 series becomes the midrange/lowend and ATI has nothing to compete with...they're gonna be totally screwed, unless they chop prices heavily.

thats a very SMALL what if... in a few monthes the new GF9 HIGH end chips arrive...
The G92 was originally slated to be the mid range GF9... the new GF9 midrange will be a G92 derivative with DX10.1 support (so about the same performance)...

So yea, expect the 8800GT to be mid range in two monthes...

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: taltamir

Originally posted by: thilan29

Originally posted by: Greenman
Why does everyone think that having the highest performing card is all that matters? I had always thought that the money was in the low end and midrange, is that not correct?

It is but what if say the 8800 series becomes the midrange/lowend and ATI has nothing to compete with...they're gonna be totally screwed, unless they chop prices heavily.

thats a very SMALL what if... in a few monthes the new GF9 HIGH end chips arrive...
The G92 was originally slated to be the mid range GF9... the new GF9 midrange will be a G92 derivative with DX10.1 support (so about the same performance)...

So yea, expect the 8800GT to be mid range in two monthes...

this entire thread is "what if" based on "what ifs"
:roll:


--i like it

personally, i think AMD will do fine going after their chosen market

 

[Cheex]

I guess it now goes to show that I'll be better of not upgrading now and just getting 'whatever-the-hell' Nvidia puts out in February.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: Cheex
I guess it now goes to show that I'll be better of not upgrading now and just getting 'whatever-the-hell' Nvidia puts out in February.

sure the 'ultra' for $850


:Q

 

[cmdrdredd]

Originally posted by: Greenman
Why does everyone think that having the highest performing card is all that matters? I had always thought that the money was in the low end and midrange, is that not correct?

Because without a high end card to play the new DX10 games at good framerates with the resolutions we play at today, there is no need to upgrade at all from what we have now.

 

[cmdrdredd]

Originally posted by: apoppin

Originally posted by: Cheex
I guess it now goes to show that I'll be better of not upgrading now and just getting 'whatever-the-hell' Nvidia puts out in February.

sure the 'ultra' for $850


:Q

If you wanna have the top cards you gotta pay for it. You can thank ATI for not having a competitor in the marketplace.

 

[Demoth]

One thing bothers me about AMD, and that is the sinking notion that AMD only bought ATI in order to offer the masses an integrated solution. They probably saw and see high end cards as gravey in the $50-$200 price point with higher price points considered too much R&D for the payoff. This might be true for the next few years until they will need to do a lot of R&D to start designing the new X-Box GPU (or whoevers contract they can win). After that, spin off technology should provide some good cards again.

There is a chance AMD is intentionally weakening themselves and writting off everything they can. Keep in mind, AMD is going to win some of the international suits against Intel and this will amount into the billions. AMD looking weaker and on verge of collapse stands to get very much more from liberal EU judges.

However, if ATI gets the drivers right, the current multi-GPU setup on the current platform could compete with Nvidia for 2 years taking into account Nvidia always seems to slow down their releases to stay just above ATI but not extremely ahead performance wise. On paper these GPUs are more powerful then the 8800 series, they will need better drivers and some architecture modification, but not any major R&D for a whole new design.

 

[Munky]

Originally posted by: Deathray2K
I don't think ATi will be competitive even in the midrange market much longer. NVidia is readying to release the 9200 and 9800. The 9200 will effectively be their new midrange card, with the 8800GT (I believe, maybe the 512MB GTS) essentially becoming the low-end. This is going to further lower the 8800s' prices, and I just don't see how ATi is going to combat that without even any new architecture to bolster their high-end.

I hightly doubt that. The 9200 will be a low end card, and there's no way it would perform anywhere close to a 8800gt. And nobody knows how close Nvidia actually is to releasing the 9 series, but I don't think they're just sitting on their butts and waiting for the right moment.