No need to upgrade until 2029

ochadd

Senior member
May 27, 2004
408
0
76
Has personal computer technology reached a point where it is possible to avoid expensive upgrades for the forseeable future? Has it been there for 10 years?

A friend asked me if it's possible to build him a computer that would last 10 years. I told him it was no problem. I'm sure there are few people today who are accurately predicting what the PC circa 2019 will be able to achieve and I don't claim to either. Saying that a user buying a PC today will be satisfied with it 10 years down the road is not a stretch.

After building a new personal machine each year my old one gets either sold or given to family and friends. A result of this is that I've been able to verify that every one of my personal computers from 1998 on is still in use today. Every person I've been able to contact who I built a machine for is still using that machine or has a parent currently using it. They range from 266mhz Pentium II up until my most recent give away of an X2 3800 machine.

Strangely enough most are happy with what they have. We all know just because grandma thinks her machine is snappy doesn't mean it is. As an exercise I decided to make my rounds over the Christmas vacation to say hello and check on some of my old machines to see how they run.

My sister runs my old Athlon X2 3800 with 2GB of memory I built in 2005. I swear that thing is as fast than my Core 2 @ 3.4ghz when doing typical activities. Everything I do on my own machine, short of high res gaming, can be done on this.

Friend of mine runs a 1.6Ghz Athlon XP w/ 1GB of memory I built for him around 2002. The fan on the CPU heat sink died almost 5 years ago and the side case fan has kept it cool. Email, spreadsheets, web surfing, etc runs fine. He even does some minor picture editing and is satisfied with it.

My mother runs an 800 mhz AMD Thunderbird I originally built in 2000. Since then I've taken it up to 1GB RAM, and replaced the hard drive. It has run Windows 95, Windows 98, Windows ME, and now runs Windows XP. It's extremely usable for email, web
surfing, viewing pictures, etc. I could use this for the necessities no problem and do several times a year.

A friend's grandfather runs my very first computer I bought myself. 266mhz Pentium II running Windows 95. He plays solitare on it and wouldn't even let me open the case. Solitare was very playable and I left voluntarily before he chased me out. Whoever made that hard drive deserves a thank you.

I'm convinced. Unless ISPs start offering 10 gigbit internet service and solitare developes a memory leak a Nehalem along with a RAID set will last the every day man until 2029.
 

mpilchfamily

Diamond Member
Jun 11, 2007
3,559
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Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.
 

InflatableBuddha

Diamond Member
Jul 5, 2007
7,416
1
0
:thumbsup: for reusing old technology. Sounds like you've even done some upgrades and repairs on the old machines.

Just make sure not to get roped into doing full-time tech support ;).
 

JackMDS

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 25, 1999
29,545
422
126
Yeah you are right. I have a friend with huge collection of 78RPM Records. He is happy with them.

In many places on this planet they do not even have 768RPM Disks, they are very happy if they just have enough food.

I.e. every thing is always Relative.

But hey Albert Einstein said it almost 100 hundred years ago and it is still the State of the Art of the Relativity Theory.:thumbsup:

P.S. Actually it is going this way.

Western civilization in principles are based on.

Moses gave us the Ten Commandments and thus "The Law is Everything?.

Jesus thought us that "Love and Compassion are Everything".

Karl Marx got it, "Money is Everything (Das Capital)?.

Freud insists that "Sex is Everything."

Einstein theorized that "Everything is Relative".
 

Koharski

Senior member
Jan 27, 2006
622
1
76
I gave my sister my old PIII 600 desktop when I left home, she still uses it now for webbrowsing and msn. At this point I can safely say that she has "no need" to upgrade, I threw 512 ram in that thing and tweaked firefox a bit to account for the slower system, and it works fine.

BUT if that was my only computer I would definately need an upgrade. My computer is constantly downloading 5-6 things while browsing the internet with 5-6 tabs or editing photos in photoshop or re-encoding HD footage from a video camera onto dvd.

If your granny checks her email once a day for a total of 5 mins, then why would she need anything more powerful than a PIII or even a PII in some circumstances. Does this mean that anybody should be able to get by on a 10 year old computer? hardly.
 

ochadd

Senior member
May 27, 2004
408
0
76
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

My experience is that overclocked CPUs and hard drives are the only thing that suffer from wear and tear. Break downs are another story but my theory is that basic PC usage can be satisfactory on any machine made in the last several years using Windows.

Throwing small linux distros into the mix makes them go even further.
 

Denithor

Diamond Member
Apr 11, 2004
6,298
23
81
Originally posted by: Koharski
If your granny checks her email once a day for a total of 5 mins, then why would she need anything more powerful than a PIII or even a PII in some circumstances. Does this mean that anybody should be able to get by on a 10 year old computer? hardly.

Exactly. It's all about usage and how much time the system spends on. If it's an hour a day for ten years and all it does is basic email and surfing, sure, you can easily build a system today that will last for the next ten. If it's on 24/7 running F@H then no, components (notably anything moving - fans, harddrives, etc) are going to fail before the ten years is up. Not to mention, someone who wants to run F@H is also going to demand more performance out of a system and is not going to be satisfied with a ten year old box.
 

geokilla

Platinum Member
Oct 14, 2006
2,012
3
81
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

You're wrong. I got a Pentium 3 at 750Mhz or thereabouts, and this PC was dead, then we used it as a chair for like 2 months. Then couple months later, booted it back up and it ran no problems at all. Nothing was changed except for the hard drive. Right now, it's using a hard drive which I believe was made back in 2002.

I also got a Pentium 4 at 1.5Ghz here using RDRAM, and it runs XP fine. Granted it's slower than the Pentium 3 but hey, it does what ti's supposed to do.
 

HopJokey

Platinum Member
May 6, 2005
2,110
0
0
Originally posted by: geokilla
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

You're wrong. I got a Pentium 3 at 750Mhz or thereabouts, and this PC was dead, then we used it as a chair for like 2 months. Then couple months later, booted it back up and it ran no problems at all. Nothing was changed except for the hard drive. Right now, it's using a hard drive which I believe was made back in 2002.

I also got a Pentium 4 at 1.5Ghz here using RDRAM, and it runs XP fine. Granted it's slower than the Pentium 3 but hey, it does what ti's supposed to do.

LOL at Rambus RAM!
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,572
10,208
126
I know several people still using P3 1Ghz machines, with 512MB of RAM, running XP, as web-browsing, DVD-watching, e-mail machines.
 

Zap

Elite Member
Oct 13, 1999
22,377
7
81
Originally posted by: JackMDS
Freud insists that "Sex is Everything."

Einstein theorized that "Everything is Relative".

I thought he was just talking about incest. :confused:

Anyways, regarding how long computers "last..."

I've known people to use computers for YEARS. As long as they keep doing the same tasks and using the same software...

Then one day they see a new piece of software or hardware doodad that promises to make their life better, and they buy it... and find out that their system is inadequate.

So, as long as you don't try using anything that just came out on a 10 year old system...
 

jharkin

Junior Member
Jan 3, 2008
1
0
0
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

Not sure where you get these figures. Typical MTBF for modern hard disks if 500,000 hours or more. That's an average of one disk failure for every 57 years of 24/7 use.

I cant find data on CPU lifetimes, but as an example we had an old 80286 box in the attic that I booted up a couple years ago just for grins. It came right up, booted to Dos (5 or 6.x I think) from the old 10MB full height IBM HDD no problem. Thats probably just over 20 years old and everything still works. Even a couple of the 5.25 floppies were readable.


 

bruceb

Diamond Member
Aug 20, 2004
8,874
111
106
I have a Dell Dimension 8200 (with Rambus Memory) from 2002 running a P4 at 1.8Ghz .. didn't think at the time to max out the RAM so it has only 512MB but it still does pretty good. Of course, it would not suffice for a lot of games out there.
 

hurtstotalktoyou

Platinum Member
Mar 24, 2005
2,055
9
81
My Dad still uses his P2-400 w/128MB RAM & Win98FE, and has never upgraded since he bought it ten years ago. He has gotten along in part because I built a Sempron box for my mother a couple years ago, which he uses when the P2 can't keep up. I'm going to force him to get a new PC this February, I think.

Supposing you spent $2000 on a PC (box only) today, I don't see how it could last a serious computer user ten years like that--much less twenty--unless it is complemented down the road by a second PC in the house. I mean, it's possible, I'm sure, but it would be a silly, pointless endeavor.
 

ochadd

Senior member
May 27, 2004
408
0
76
Originally posted by: hurtstotalktoyou
My Dad still uses his P2-400 w/128MB RAM & Win98FE, and has never upgraded since he bought it ten years ago. He has gotten along in part because I built a Sempron box for my mother a couple years ago, which he uses when the P2 can't keep up. I'm going to force him to get a new PC this February, I think.

Supposing you spent $2000 on a PC (box only) today, I don't see how it could last a serious computer user ten years like that--much less twenty--unless it is complemented down the road by a second PC in the house. I mean, it's possible, I'm sure, but it would be a silly, pointless endeavor.

Even serious computer users only "need" to do a few things. The best, biggest, and most important thing a PC does is allow you to communicate with the outside world in a variety of ways.

Email, web access, IM, message boards, buying, and selling. On top of communications it's all gravy. The necessities of today require most people to be competant in the above. Missing out on iTunes, torrents, video editing, gaming, is not something society requires.

I might forget a message from Uncle Willie asking how to rip a dvd. I won't however dodge a message asking how to setup an email account.

The necessities can be done with some pretty ancient hardware.
 

imported_Graphite

Junior Member
Dec 28, 2008
17
0
0
Personal computer longevity... I love the conundrum of it, and agree that I have a few stories about old PC's out-living expectations.

I had our family's first laptop hiding in a corner and that had a Pentium (133MHz?), 16MB of RAM, Windows 98 and 1GB HDD. No battery life, but it saved my neck on a couple of projects way back when :p It did what I needed it to do! Donated to my secondary school in 2007 to display with a 486 box, and it was still working then...

Everything is definitely relative, and it all depends on what you use the machine for - as others have said, IM, web browsing, e-mail, MP3 playback, word documents; these are the major things many typical end-users use these days. All these tasks are do-able on a 10 year old machine. So why can't a new PC last for 10 years for the typical end-user?

(Hardware failure permitting, of course :p)
 

BurnItDwn

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
26,330
1,841
126
Computer cases can easily last beyond 10 years

Keyboards can easily last beyond 20 years

mouses tend to die within a few years

hard drives are usually reliable for around 5 years of mid-heavy use, then their reliability starts to drop (still can be reliable in some cases, just general observation)

If they game, video cards become obselete after about 2-3 years if you like modern games with decent eyecandy, you may be able to stretch it to 5 years if you don't mind 800x600. I've had old PCI video cards that work 10 years after I bought them, and I've had video cards that died after just a few years. With all the heat that they generate nowadays, I don't think the majority of video cards will survive 20 years of usage.

CPU's are often good for 5-10 years, but eventually, they start to "wig out"

Motherboards sometimes are good for 10+ years, but sometimes they die a LOT sooner, or parts stop working after several years.

Optical Drives never seem to last me more than about 5 or 6 years ... Maybe just bad luck

GOOD Power supplies will last for a long time, but over time, components within a power supply do decay to some extent, so their lives are not infinite. I have an Enermax that I bought in 2001 that still runs strong. Between 2000 and 2001 I must have killed at least 3 or 4 generic power supplies that I had picked up cheap ....

I've had nics, sound cards, ram chips, and fans die inside a case. There is pretty much a 100% chance that while some components will run for 20+ years, there will probably be at least half a dozen hardware failures by that time....

Honestly, he's better buying a new system every 5-7 years if he doesn't want hassles. If he wants to simply pay less money, then he should buy 2 or 3 year old used computers for like $100, and keep them for 3-4 years.
 

RebateMonger

Elite Member
Dec 24, 2005
11,586
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I've had personal computers since around 1979, and I can't think of any that were "usable" for more than about ten years. I still have a Celeron 600 in daily use (I don't have to use it myself), with XP, but it's pretty hard to "bite the bullet" and actually USE it.

Operating systems have become much more reliable over the years, so even if the hardware still functions, the old OS is hardly usable compared to current OSes.

My own strategy:
a) Don't buy the latest and greatest hardware. Buy stuff that was new a year or two ago.
b) Similarly, don't use the latest and greatest OS for at least a year after release. I didn't switch to Vista and Office 2007 until a few months after SP1 was released.
c) Replace hardware only when it breaks or won't run needed software.
 

SunSamurai

Diamond Member
Jan 16, 2005
3,914
0
0
Originally posted by: jharkin
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

Not sure where you get these figures. Typical MTBF for modern hard disks if 500,000 hours or more. That's an average of one disk failure for every 57 years of 24/7 use.

I cant find data on CPU lifetimes, but as an example we had an old 80286 box in the attic that I booted up a couple years ago just for grins. It came right up, booted to Dos (5 or 6.x I think) from the old 10MB full height IBM HDD no problem. Thats probably just over 20 years old and everything still works. Even a couple of the 5.25 floppies were readable.

Way to make your first post a dumb one.

1. Hard drives fail on average after "57 years of 24/7 use." ? Are you stupid? If you actualy believe that, thats sad. Typical hard drives will fail around 5 years of use. Thats actual USE. Not just being on. Learn the difference.

2. CPU lifetimes differ from CPU to CPU as each has a different makeup. Was your old 80286 box running 24/7 doing intencive processes for 10 years? Fuck no. Lean what happens to a CPU as it gets older when electrons arte smaking the hell out of it. They weaken. Esp the ones with high rates of heat radiation.
 

BurnItDwn

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
26,330
1,841
126
Originally posted by: RebateMonger
I've had personal computers since around 1979, and I can't think of any that were "usable" for more than about ten years. I still have a Celeron 600 in daily use (I don't have to use it myself), with XP, but it's pretty hard to "bite the bullet" and actually USE it.

Operating systems have become much more reliable over the years, so even if the hardware still functions, the old OS is hardly usable compared to current OSes.

My own strategy:
a) Don't buy the latest and greatest hardware. Buy stuff that was new a year or two ago.
b) Similarly, don't use the latest and greatest OS for at least a year after release. I didn't switch to Vista and Office 2007 until a few months after SP1 was released.
c) Replace hardware only when it breaks or won't run needed software.

That strategy seems awfully logical and well thought out. Why would you say a thing like that? ;)
 

RebateMonger

Elite Member
Dec 24, 2005
11,586
0
0
Originally posted by: aeternitas
1. Hard drives fail on average after "57 years of 24/7 use." ? Are you stupid? If you actualy believe that, thats sad. Typical hard drives will fail around 5 years of use. Thats actual USE. Not just being on. Learn the difference.

aeternitas.

There's no need for personal insults here. Please refrain from them

RebateMonger - AnandTech Moderator
 

geokilla

Platinum Member
Oct 14, 2006
2,012
3
81
Originally posted by: HopJokey
Originally posted by: geokilla
Originally posted by: mpilchfamily
Anything you build will go for about 6 years tops. Parts start failing after that. Besides it would be outdated after the first 3 years of use if not sooner.

CPUs are designed fro a life of about 10 years. RAM is made for about 8 years and HDDs for about 5 years. You quickly reach a point where you will be replacing just about everything in the system after the first 6 years. Also the wear and tear on the items slow them down.

You're wrong. I got a Pentium 3 at 750Mhz or thereabouts, and this PC was dead, then we used it as a chair for like 2 months. Then couple months later, booted it back up and it ran no problems at all. Nothing was changed except for the hard drive. Right now, it's using a hard drive which I believe was made back in 2002.

I also got a Pentium 4 at 1.5Ghz here using RDRAM, and it runs XP fine. Granted it's slower than the Pentium 3 but hey, it does what ti's supposed to do.

LOL at Rambus RAM!

Ehh? What's wrong with RAMBUS? I admit my dad spent WAY too much for a Pentium 4 machine when he coulda spent less on an AMD machine and got the exact same performance or better.
 

Pelu

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2008
1,208
0
0
I dunno you guys... but my hardware works fine for 12 months up to 18 months... after that they start getting busted... some pieces... my old radeon 1900xtx got busted... my old mainboard too.... old processor too... old PSU too... well... what else can u expect from a computer that is taking a beating all days 7 days a week.. lol... and is close to be a 24/7