No hyperinflation pending, TIPS are retreating

[werepossum]

My boss's ARM rate was adjusted down very recently from his 2004 purchase.

Ah, so it's RICH people getting the breaks! J/K

 

[First]

So you are smart enough to say it is just around the corner, but not smart enough to say where or when the corner is at? In that case, your words are useless. You can't predict something and then be unable to even give an approximate description of your predictions.

You're responding to a guy that is perfectly content to not contribute to discussions he doesn't understand...but still post what little he believes he gets in these discussions nonetheless. You aren't going to get numbers from him the way you won't suddenly get Ron Paul to admit he has been wrong about economics for 4 decades. They don't actually desire to understand other theories or alternatives. That's why they're Austrians, Libertarians, etc.

 

[bamacre]

So you are smart enough to say it is just around the corner, but not smart enough to say where or when the corner is at? In that case, your words are useless. You can't predict something and then be unable to even give an approximate description of your predictions.

Nonsense. Are you willing to give your own predictions for inflation/deflation in the coming years?

You could, but you'd look as dumb as the poster before me who 15 months ago said we'd be out of this economic mess in 12 months.

 

[LegendKiller]

Nonsense. Are you willing to give your own predictions for inflation/deflation in the coming years?

You could, but you'd look as dumb as the poster before me who 15 months ago said we'd be out of this economic mess in 12 months.

You can't even get 12 months right so you have no room to talk.

 

[First]

Recovering jobs, GDP, and wage growth says I was right. Meanwhile others still wimp out of their own predictions.

 

[dullard]

You claim deflation. Then you ask "When is high inflation coming?" Then I present you with 16.8% PPI in January.

I think you misread the PPI. It did NOT go up 16.8% in January. One component of PPI went up 16.8% (crude energy materials, mostly due to a natural gas price spike), PPI only went up 1.4% seasonally adjusted. The year-over-year PPI change is 4.6%. 4.6% is a big number, higher than desired, but it certainly isn't 16.8%.

If you follow what I post, I've been saying that deflation is more likely to cause problems than inflation (ie mild deflation is painful but mild inflation is not and that high inflation is very unlikely). Then I proceed to post CPI numbers that range from mild deflation to mild inflation. That isn't me saying that deflation is definately coming. I do not believe I ever made a post that said that, nor did I ever intend to. If I did, then I retract that post.

I think I have a very open mind by posting data that ranges from mild deflation to mild inflation. But, if that is close-minded to you, how can I open my mind?

After doing the math, IMO, we'll have very mild inflation (1.0%-3.0% year-over-year on average with monthly spikes lower and higher than that range) for the next 2-3 years. I certainly cannot predict anything beyond that period. Thus, I'll just assume we'll return to historical data which is 3.0%-4.0% for the years 2013-2015. Although, I reserve the right to change that 2013-2015 estimate as new data comes in. I'll be glad to sit back and watch how 2010 unfolds with you. All predictions in this paragraph are year-over-year changes on CPI as currently defined. Thus, for my prediction to be true, the CPI for Jan 2011 will be in the 218.9 to 223.2 range (1% to 3%). The CPI for Jan 2012 will be in the 221.0 to 229.9 range. The CPI for Jan 2013 will be in the 223.3 to 236.8 range.

Nonsense. Are you willing to give your own predictions for inflation/deflation in the coming years?

See my prediction in this post. I'm willing to put concrete estimates with concrete dates. I'll let history prove me right or prove me wrong. I challenge you to do the same with your predictions.

 

[dullard]

Thus, for my prediction to be true, the CPI for Jan 2011 will be in the 218.9 to 223.2 range (1% to 3%).

One year later: 220.223. That is right near the center of my range.

I was willing to "give your own predictions for inflation/deflation in the coming years" and I did not "look as dumb as the poster before me who 15 months ago said we'd be out of this economic mess in 12 months."

Your turn: when will we have the hyperinflation?

 

[dullard]

CPI for Jan 2012 will be in the 221.0 to 229.9 range... I'm willing to put concrete estimates with concrete dates. I'll let history prove me right or prove me wrong.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

2 years after my prediction: 226.665. Again, right in the middle of my prediction range.

Not that anyone cares.

 

[halik]

I do, forgot how awesome this thread was. Still waiting for hyperinflation and weimar republic, 4 years alter. Yaay ron paul-o-nomics.

 

[First]

rofl. Don't think bamacre even posts here anymore. Too bad, would have been fun.

 

[fskimospy]

That's some pretty powerful ownage.

Not that Austrian 'economics' needed any more discrediting.

 

[momeNt]

That's some pretty powerful ownage.

Not that Austrian 'economics' needed any more discrediting.

How to spot someone that isn't an Austrian economist? They give a prediction.

The ones that give predictions may like some principles of Austrian economics, they may like gold, they may like Ron Paul. One thing they are not is true Austrian economists, predictions are kind of antithetical to the whole framework of a priori deductive reasoning.

Walter Block calls them Austrian Thymologists.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/block/block168.html

 

[First]

^ Um, horseshit.

 

[momeNt]

^ Um, horseshit.

Are you trying to tell me that you have not heard this?

What degree of Austrian economics and praxeology have you been exposed to if you immediately call what I wrote horseshit?

 

[First]

Are you trying to tell me that you have not heard this?

What degree of Austrian economics and praxeology have you been exposed to if you immediately call what I wrote horseshit?

Yes, it's horseshit analysis by people trying to segregate Austrians into groups of the ones they like from the ones they don't. Nowhere has the most preeminent Austrian (Hayek) claimed his economic ideology should not and could not predict or forecast behavior. The fact that someone would follow an economic ethos that claims to be correct qualitatively while simultaneously admitting to having no predictive value shows a rare level of cognitive dissonance.

 

[feralkid]

I am drawing a big blank on how many politicians ever commit political suicide to actually do what is best for their constituents. Are there any; has a president ever gone and knowingly screwed his chances of a second term by doing an unpopular but right (and subsequently proven right) thing in his first?

LBJ

Carter.

Bush 1.









.

 

[momeNt]

Yes, it's horseshit analysis by people trying to segregate Austrians into groups of the ones they like from the ones they don't. Nowhere has the most preeminent Austrian (Hayek) claimed his economic ideology should not and could not predict or forecast behavior. The fact that someone would follow an economic ethos that claims to be correct qualitatively while simultaneously admitting to having no predictive value shows a rare level of cognitive dissonance.

It's the economics of freedom broski.

 

[Jaskalas]

I do, forgot how awesome this thread was. Still waiting for hyperinflation and weimar republic, 4 years alter. Yaay ron paul-o-nomics.

The US is still able to issue debt, people haven't stopped buying it. Until that happens the sky is the limit for racking it up year after year, trillions after trillions. !@#$ doesn't hit the fan until you're forced to add money to the system.

So long as we keep expanding deficit spending, the seriousness of the problem grows. No we're not the rocket scientists of economics we can't give you can exact date. We don't know how far down the rabbit hole this goes.

We can tell you what it'll be like to hit bottom one day.

 

[First]

It's the economics of freedom broski.

Sure it is.

We can tell you what it'll be like to hit bottom one day.

Sure you will.

 

[Blackjack200]

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

2 years after my prediction: 226.665. Again, right in the middle of my prediction range.

Not that anyone cares.

Damn. Ownage of the decade?

Edit: I was fooled by some of the older posts and thought that Moonbeam and LegendKiller were posting again

This forum misses them greatly.

 

[Darwin333]

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

2 years after my prediction: 226.665. Again, right in the middle of my prediction range.

Not that anyone cares.

Very well done.

 

[Ninjahedge]

I do, forgot how awesome this thread was. Still waiting for hyperinflation and weimar republic, 4 years alter. Yaay ron paul-o-nomics.

While Ronnie boy does not exactly look like the most level of shelves, he does have good points.

The only thing to be careful of is not to completely dismiss the possibility of a flood just because someone said that we would have one soon, but have not. If the potential is there, there may be other factors at play.

The housing bubble is a good example. I saw the over-inflation of that thing about 4 years before it popped. Unfortunately, I could have made a SHITLOAD of money on it had I not been so (rationally) cautious. (Hoboken NJ, where $95K condos topped $250K in less than 5 years).

The bubble popped and many people got stuck with their $500K+ places that were now at $450K market value, but it happened several YEARS after what would have been a "normal" and "healthy" "correction".

What market is being used as the canary in this coal mine? I know that food prices have been jumping around quite a bit over the past few years. Of all the products out there, I am most worried about what I need every day doubling in price than the price of a new LCD TV....

 

[Jaskalas]

REPORT: Real inflation at 8%...

Forget the modest 3.1 percent rise in the Consumer Price Index, the government's widely used measure of inflation. Everyday prices are up some 8 percent over the past year, according to the American Institute for Economic Research.

The Feds want to print more money / issue more debt to 'protect' the economy through the next year.

 

[halik]

REPORT: Real inflation at 8%...


The Feds want to print more money / issue more debt to 'protect' the economy through the next year.

Ah yes, when reality diagrees with your dogmatic economic view, you make new data to support it. You don't find it odd that no traded instruments implies inflation anywhere near that? Those guys are like the US version of Dagong rating agency, but exist for even dumber premise.

 

[momeNt]

You don't think there's a bubble in gold?

When will gold bubble pop.

Let's see that master's education hard at work. We'll even all give you the answer to the first 2 years for free