No COVID boosters this Fall?

[manly]

From reading Dr. Prasad Memorandum on why he made the decision he did I don't see a anti-vax outlook. More of a desire for the vaccine companies to demonstrate that the COVID boosters actually cause a risk reduction in the general population. Especially when you deal with non-high-risk individuals. Also this policy change draws the US more inline with inline with international consensus in recommending COVID-19 boosters to children and non-high risk adults.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/24b944c1a77fbed7/209038df-full.pdf

For the record, I was agreeing with you. There has to be a cost-benefit analysis to public health policy, but it's understandable for a knee-jerk reaction since RJK Jr is Secretary of HHS. Quite frankly, his track record over just 5 months speaks for itself.

Obviously people here want to know that scientists are driving the decisions rather than a kook.

 

[Moonbeam]

What will gun toting vengeful Trumpists do when they discover their so called God killed a beloved family member?

 

[pete6032]

What will gun toting vengeful Trumpists do when they discover their so called God killed a beloved family member?

They will thank him for making America great again.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

From reading Dr. Prasad Memorandum on why he made the decision he did I don't see a anti-vax outlook. More of a desire for the vaccine companies to demonstrate that the COVID boosters actually cause a risk reduction in the general population. Especially when you deal with non-high-risk individuals. Also this policy change draws the US more inline with inline with international consensus in recommending COVID-19 boosters to children and non-high risk adults.

https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/24b944c1a77fbed7/209038df-full.pdf

I mean, the dumb thing about that is that to prove it, you need to wait for dead bodies to show up and prove that it was covid (and that the vaccine would have saved them). Or you could, y'know, keep giving everyone the vaccine and trust the science that's worked for actual centuries.

 

[Moonbeam]

They will thank him for making America great again.

That was my estimation too. How would you like waking up to the realization that you voted to kill people you love. Can you imagine mow much devotion to self awareness that would take. As I so often say, people would rather die than wake up, their self hate is that deep.

 

[Brovane]

I mean, the dumb thing about that is that to prove it, you need to wait for dead bodies to show up and prove that it was covid (and that the vaccine would have saved them). Or you could, y'know, keep giving everyone the vaccine and trust the science that's worked for actual centuries.

What do you think you know that the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands doesn't know?

This is because the younger age group (flu vaccine group aged 18–49 years) has a lower risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19 compared to the older age group (flu vaccine group aged 50 years and older), and because the burden of disease has decreased over the past few years. A COVID-19 vaccination does not have enough added value for this younger group at this time.

 

[balloonshark]

Every single freakin' policy they have come up with steers the average American towards being eternally in debt to the donor class.

 

[MrSquished]

only boosters allowed will be 99% Ivermectin and 1%Liberal Tears

 

[MtnMan]

I'm sure there will be a recommendation this fall from HHS to stick a light bulb up your ass while drinking your urine.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

What do you think you know that the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands doesn't know?

This is because the younger age group (flu vaccine group aged 18–49 years) has a lower risk of serious illness and death from COVID-19 compared to the older age group (flu vaccine group aged 50 years and older), and because the burden of disease has decreased over the past few years. A COVID-19 vaccination does not have enough added value for this younger group at this time.

Honestly, because older age groups are at a higher risk, everyone should get the stick, regardless if it has added value for them personally. Maybe the Netherlands has a much higher quality of doctor/hospital care and can handle the extra load from a sicker older population, but the US is already strained as it is. If our manufacturing base and govt coordination can ease the load on the hospitals, they should.

 

[Iron Woode]

I just checked our Province's (Ontario) guidelines for covid vaccines and they are unchanged here:

unless you are in a high risk group, you can get your vaccine starting in the autumn/winter season.

 

[feralkid]

I expected JFK to ban the covid vaccine entirely, so I'm not surprised. Look what he going to do to the vaccine schedule of kids.

Back from the grave?

 

[Brovane]

Honestly, because older age groups are at a higher risk, everyone should get the stick, regardless if it has added value for them personally. Maybe the Netherlands has a much higher quality of doctor/hospital care and can handle the extra load from a sicker older population, but the US is already strained as it is. If our manufacturing base and govt coordination can ease the load on the hospitals, they should.

Why would everyone getting a booster ease the load on the Hospitals? If a 25 year old already has been vaccinated against COVID. Getting a booster isn't meaningfully going to lower their chance of getting Severe COVID (The kind that requires medical resources). You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Why would everyone getting a booster ease the load on the Hospitals? If a 25 year old already has been vaccinated against COVID. Getting a booster isn't meaningfully going to lower their chance of getting Severe COVID (The kind that requires medical resources). You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either.

Did I miss some research papers that showed evidence that COVID antibodies developed in 2020 persist indefinitely against all future strains?

 

[Pens1566]

Why would everyone getting a booster ease the load on the Hospitals? If a 25 year old already has been vaccinated against COVID. Getting a booster isn't meaningfully going to lower their chance of getting Severe COVID (The kind that requires medical resources). You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either.

You have those backwards.

 

[Brovane]

Did I miss some research papers that showed evidence that COVID antibodies developed in 2020 persist indefinitely against all future strains?

Yes apparently you did. Which is why a lot of countries in Europe decided there was no added value of COVID boosters for lower risk groups.

You have those backwards.

Can you expand on that statement?

 

[Pens1566]

Yes apparently you did. Which is why a lot of countries in Europe decided there was no added value of COVID boosters for lower risk groups.



Can you expand on that statement?

It's the measles vaxx that (typically) produces lifetime coverage. COVID ones require boosters like the flu.

Either way, the COVID vaxx does in fact protect you from disease impacts.
Mayo Clinic FAQ

Unless you're (mistakenly) suggesting that the measles vaxx produces sterilizing immunity. There are no vaccines currently in widespread western use that provide sterilizing immunity (HPV is debatable).

It might just be that you're conflating infection and disease symptoms. They are two entirely different things. See CMV and Aspergillus.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Yes apparently you did. Which is why a lot of countries in Europe decided there was no added value of COVID boosters for lower risk groups.



Can you expand on that statement?

Alright, let's look at the numbers since I apparently have nothing else to do on my lunch break.
CDC recommends boosters, specifically focusing on the LP8.1 strain.

COVID-19 Vaccines for Use in the United States Beginning in Fall 2025

FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met on May 22, 2025, to discuss and make recommendations on the selection of the 2025-2026 Formula for COVID-19 vaccines for use in the United States beginning in the fall of 2025.

www.fda.gov

WHO advises that if you've been boostered for JN.1 or KP.2, you're probably good on LP8.1

WHO advisers say current strains OK for COVID vaccine production

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Both of those strains were included in the 2024 shot.
COVID booster rates for 2024 in the US was less than 25% on average.

Vaccination Trends

Vaccination uptake & intent for COVID, flu, and RSV

www.cdc.gov

I didn't feel like doing a lengthy month-by-month analysis but I found a NOV2024 article celebrating that US citizens 60+ had reached a whole 40% vaccination rate.

Many more seniors are getting COVID shots this year, CDC reports

Nearly 4 in 10 seniors have gotten vaccinated for COVID so far this year.

www.cbsnews.com

For the Netherlands (since you brought it up), they reached 46% 60+, and and 60% in 80+.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/more-than-25-million-covid-19-vaccinations-administered-in-2024-autumn-round

Last I read, unvaccinated individuals were about 2.5x as likely to die from infection than someone unvaccinated. Neither of those countries should be backing off the vaccines with numbers like that, but the US has a lot more people, a lot more travel, and a lot higher population densities in its population centers (not to mention a shittier medical system in many ways).

 

[Brovane]

It's the measles vaxx that (typically) produces lifetime coverage. COVID ones require boosters like the flu.

Either way, the COVID vaxx does in fact protect you from disease impacts.
Mayo Clinic FAQ

Unless you're (mistakenly) suggesting that the measles vaxx produces sterilizing immunity. There are no vaccines currently in widespread western use that provide sterilizing immunity (HPV is debatable).

It might just be that you're conflating infection and disease symptoms. They are two entirely different things. See CMV and Aspergillus.

What I am saying is that if you get vaccinated for Measles the level of immunity you receive from the vaccine, if you are exposed to measles you will not get sick with measles and become a spreader of measles. That is why in general having significant parts of the US Population vaccinated for Measles provides overall herd immunity. That is why it is so important to get vaccinated for Measles which apparently is lost on some people.

However even if I am vaccinated for COVID and then get the latest booster I can still get sick with COVID and I can still spread the disease. The level of infection might be mild or even asymptomatic but I am still contagious. So the COVID vaccine/booster doesn't create the same level of herd immunity that the Measles vaccine does which is why the COVID-19 continues circulating even in areas with high numbers of people vaccinated.

 

[Brovane]

Alright, let's look at the numbers since I apparently have nothing else to do on my lunch break.
CDC recommends boosters, specifically focusing on the LP8.1 strain.

COVID-19 Vaccines for Use in the United States Beginning in Fall 2025

FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) met on May 22, 2025, to discuss and make recommendations on the selection of the 2025-2026 Formula for COVID-19 vaccines for use in the United States beginning in the fall of 2025.

www.fda.gov

WHO advises that if you've been boostered for JN.1 or KP.2, you're probably good on LP8.1

WHO advisers say current strains OK for COVID vaccine production

www.cidrap.umn.edu

Both of those strains were included in the 2024 shot.
COVID booster rates for 2024 in the US was less than 25% on average.

Vaccination Trends

Vaccination uptake & intent for COVID, flu, and RSV

www.cdc.gov

I didn't feel like doing a lengthy month-by-month analysis but I found a NOV2024 article celebrating that US citizens 60+ had reached a whole 40% vaccination rate.

Many more seniors are getting COVID shots this year, CDC reports

Nearly 4 in 10 seniors have gotten vaccinated for COVID so far this year.

www.cbsnews.com

For the Netherlands (since you brought it up), they reached 46% 60+, and and 60% in 80+.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/more-than-25-million-covid-19-vaccinations-administered-in-2024-autumn-round

Last I read, unvaccinated individuals were about 2.5x as likely to die from infection than someone unvaccinated. Neither of those countries should be backing off the vaccines with numbers like that, but the US has a lot more people, a lot more travel, and a lot higher population densities in its population centers (not to mention a shittier medical system in many ways).

I would direct you to read Dr. Prasad statement on why they are changing the recommendations for boosters. https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/24b944c1a77fbed7/209038df-full.pdf


The randomized clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines performed in 2020 and 2021 demonstrated acceptable efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19. Subsequent efficacy assessments for updated vaccine formulations against omicron subvariants have been based on immunogenicity data and observational or real-world data. Our ability to estimate clinical efficacy against novel COVID-19 variants from these types of studies is limited because the amount of protection conferred by an increase in neutralizing antibodies is unclear. A 2025 observational study found antibody response to be significantly correlated with protection against self-reported repeat infection. Although individuals with the highest neutralizing antibody titers were found to have fewer repeat infections, it is unclear if the protection stemmed from factors innate to these individuals rather than from the absolute quantity of antibodies. Protection against future severe COVID-19 may predominantly come from other facets of the immune system, such as innate immunity or cell-mediated immunity. A causal relationship between a rise in neutralizing antibody titers and a diminished risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes has not been established, nor has the precise strength of such a relationship.

 

[Pens1566]

What I am saying is that if you get vaccinated for Measles the level of immunity you receive from the vaccine, if you are exposed to measles you will not get sick with measles and become a spreader of measles. That is why in general having significant parts of the US Population vaccinated for Measles provides overall herd immunity. That is why it is so important to get vaccinated for Measles which apparently is lost on some people.

However even if I am vaccinated for COVID and then get the latest booster I can still get sick with COVID and I can still spread the disease. The level of infection might be mild or even asymptomatic but I am still contagious. So the COVID vaccine/booster doesn't create the same level of herd immunity that the Measles vaccine does which is why the COVID-19 continues circulating even in areas with high numbers of people vaccinated.

That's more a function of the pathogens themselves as opposed to the vaccines.

Also, a main reason why measles was eradicated (until lately) was due to the enormously high % of vaccine recipients. Something we don't have because of discussions like this one we're having now.

edit: I'd add it's a largely pointless discussion.

 

[hal2kilo]

Why would everyone getting a booster ease the load on the Hospitals? If a 25 year old already has been vaccinated against COVID. Getting a booster isn't meaningfully going to lower their chance of getting Severe COVID (The kind that requires medical resources). You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either.

They are still carriers when they get infected.

 

[Brovane]

That's more a function of the pathogens themselves as opposed to the vaccines.

Also, a main reason why measles was eradicated (until lately) was due to the enormously high % of vaccine recipients. Something we don't have because of discussions like this one we're having now.

edit: I'd add it's a largely pointless discussion.

"You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either."

My original point that the COVID vaccine doesn't provide the same level of protection(As you say the pathogens are different) that the Measles vaccine provides because which would be a good reason to push more people to get vaccinated/boosted. The COVID vaccine works more like a pre-infection treatment to lower the severity of your infection. While the Measles vaccine can prevent you from getting sick at all and becoming infectious. If there was a COVID vaccine available that is shown to significantly lower the chance of someone getting COVID and being infectious that would be a good reason to try and encourage everyone to get a updated booster. Even those in low risk groups. Until we have that type of vaccine we should focus on people in the highest risk groups getting vaccinated to lower the severity of their infection.

 

[Brovane]

They are still carriers when they get infected.

Yes you can still be a carrier of Measles when infected but you are not likely to get Measles if vaccinated and you are exposed to the virus. Something like the rate of 3 out of 100 for fully vaccinated people. Which is why the Measles vaccine is so effective at stopping the spread of the Measles virus unlike the COVID vaccine stopping the spread of COVID-19.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

"You would have a point if getting the booster lowers a person chance of getting COVID at all(The type of protection that the Measles vaccine gives a person), but the Booster doesn't do that either."

My original point that the COVID vaccine doesn't provide the same level of protection(As you say the pathogens are different) that the Measles vaccine provides because which would be a good reason to push more people to get vaccinated/boosted. The COVID vaccine works more like a pre-infection treatment to lower the severity of your infection. While the Measles vaccine can prevent you from getting sick at all and becoming infectious. If there was a COVID vaccine available that is shown to significantly lower the chance of someone getting COVID and being infectious that would be a good reason to try and encourage everyone to get a updated booster. Even those in low risk groups. Until we have that type of vaccine we should focus on people in the highest risk groups getting vaccinated to lower the severity of their infection.

Are we running out of vaccine? Why do we need to focus on only one group?