No bottom in sight for AMD

[trajan2050]

http://www.marketwatch.com/new...0962C8%7D&siteid=yhoof

AMD is now trading below $6.50 a share. A few weeks ago there were discussions on this forum where some individuals advised buying at 9 or even 10. AMD's liabilities signifigantly greater than assets at the moment.

 

[v8envy]

Oh, I don't know about that. If you remember I was the one advising against going long AMD during the down trend at $10, $9, 8 because the chart looked like roadkill and the down trend was very much in progress and confirmed by every indicator I put faith in.

I'm seeing a very likely bottom at $5.10, at least in the 3-6 month timeframe. In fact, there may even be a short term bounce to 6.5 later today. My chart reading tea leaves tell me so.

 

[n7]

AMD has nothing decent coming out for as long as their roadmaps go (i'm ignoring their plans that aren't going into production anytime soon, since plans don't mean much coming from AMD).

How that i affects stocks i don't know for sure, but i can't see it being good.

I don't see how they're going to survive actually, but let's hope they have some miracle they can pull out here in 2008, since everything else indicates otherwise...

 

[Pocatello]

I'm pretty sure some companies are looking to buy AMD right now, especially the Asian ones, they have the cash. The price is not right yet.

 

[Killrose]

I was thinking of buying some stock when it hit $7.25 or so. I will still buy some, but yeah, it has not hit bottom yet. The only thing holding them now in a hover has got to be sales of 3850/3870 GPU's. I'm thinking they might first sell off the ATi venture which I think Intel would still love to have bfore the final spiral into the ground. Evidently the B3 Phenoms (Cavalry off in the distance) are not comming anytime soon to save the day.

 

[Viditor]

And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

 

[heyheybooboo]

Wow. $6.20 when I checked. Puts market cap at <$3.5 bil.

I never thought it would go this low. Even with all their problems and debt they are still a $5-$6 bil rev company. If they cave we are all Chipzilla roadkill ...

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: trajan2050
http://www.marketwatch.com/new...0962C8%7D&siteid=yhoof

AMD is now trading below $6.50 a share. A few weeks ago there were discussions on this forum where some individuals advised buying at 9 or even 10. AMD's liabilities signifigantly greater than assets at the moment.

It's been better fer sure. Their operating loss in Q3-06 was less than $200 mil. Q4 must of been a real dawg for 'em ...

 

[trajan2050]

Intel last year: 52wk Range: 18.75 - 27.99 still in the middle of trading range at 22.56

AMD last year 52wk Range: 6.75 - 20.63
Now 6.12

AMD down more than 70% in the last year. This is much more than short term price fluctuations.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: trajan2050
Intel last year: 52wk Range: 18.75 - 27.99 still in the middle of trading range at 22.56

AMD last year 52wk Range: 6.75 - 20.63
Now 6.12

AMD down more than 70% in the last year. This is much more than short term price fluctuations.

It's all just selective BS...
Compare Intel and AMD from when Athlon was first introduced.

Aug 1999, AMD was at a split adjusted $8.50, and Intel was at a split adjusted $33.20...
AMD is down 20% and Intel is down 31% from then...

What's your point here?

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: Viditor
And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

Yep Intel is taken a beating because AMD chips are filling the channel . When I seen the report yesterday . I got excited. I am ready to take my profits on shorted AMD stocks. I hope intel keeps dropping . I could really do well with this.

AMD is setting at $6.14 I believe it will end the day @ $6.02. The volumn is the most I ever seen from AMD . 34 million 5x normal daily volumn.

That means A big house is unloading AMD stock and Another House is buying into AMD .

Same with Intel Way more volumn than normal

 

[Nemesis 1]

Come on Viditor I shorted AMD @ $39 and change. Don't even go there . You get spanking.

Lets take both companies from day 1 . Than tell me all about it. Viditor your always looking for things that fit your agenda. AMD has not even come close to rewarding its investors as Intel has. How much is AMD paying out in dividends.

Comparing Intel stock movement to AMDs at a time you choose is complete BS and you know it. Your comparing INTELs $150 billion value To AMDs $ 3.4 billion dollar company .

If you bought Intel stock at issue you be wealthy now. lets say $5,000 investment at issue = Millions now . take the same Amount and Invest in AMD @ issue price and Your not going to see 1 million

 

[v8envy]

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1

Originally posted by: Viditor
And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

Yep Intel is taken a beating because AMD chips are filling the channel . When I seen the report yesterday . I got excited. I am ready to take my profits on shorted AMD stocks. I hope intel keeps dropping . I could really do well with this.

AMD is setting at $6.14 I believe it will end the day @ $6.02. The volumn is the most I ever seen from AMD . 34 million 5x normal daily volumn.

That means A big house is unloading AMD stock and Another House is buying into AMD .

Same with Intel Way more volumn than normal

It could also mean institutionals are dumping AMD and small fry are lining up to buy the 'bargain', hoping for a white knight to come in and buy the company.

Looks like I was full of crap re: 6.5 bounce today. Guess I may have to eat more crow at $5.10, but only time will tell.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1

Originally posted by: Viditor
And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

Yep Intel is taken a beating because AMD chips are filling the channel . When I seen the report yesterday . I got excited. I am ready to take my profits on shorted AMD stocks. I hope intel keeps dropping . I could really do well with this.

AMD is setting at $6.14 I believe it will end the day @ $6.02. The volumn is the most I ever seen from AMD . 34 million 5x normal daily volumn.

That means A big house is unloading AMD stock and Another House is buying into AMD .

Same with Intel Way more volumn than normal

I don't pay a great deal of attention to volume but it seems to me that the AMD downhill rollercoaster over the past few months has been trading 25-35 mil shares on 'crazee' days ...

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1

Originally posted by: Viditor
And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

Yep Intel is taken a beating because AMD chips are filling the channel . When I seen the report yesterday . I got excited. I am ready to take my profits on shorted AMD stocks. I hope intel keeps dropping . I could really do well with this.

AMD is setting at $6.14 I believe it will end the day @ $6.02. The volumn is the most I ever seen from AMD . 34 million 5x normal daily volumn.

That means A big house is unloading AMD stock and Another House is buying into AMD .

Same with Intel Way more volumn than normal

Intel is taking a beating because we're on the verge of a recession, not because of AMD...
During a recession, chips are one of the first things to get tightened.

AMD was NOT downgraded today...they are down today because Intel and the CPU sector in general is down (the BofA downgrade on Intel and AMD was yesterday).
Intel is also trading at 5x their 10 day average today...
154.8 Million shares so far...

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1

Originally posted by: Viditor
And Intel has dropped from $27.45 to their current $22.70 in a week as well...

The entire CPU market has been downgraded, so what has this to do with AMD's business (other than short term price fluctuations)?

Yep Intel is taken a beating because AMD chips are filling the channel . When I seen the report yesterday . I got excited. I am ready to take my profits on shorted AMD stocks. I hope intel keeps dropping . I could really do well with this.

AMD is setting at $6.14 I believe it will end the day @ $6.02. The volumn is the most I ever seen from AMD . 34 million 5x normal daily volumn.

That means A big house is unloading AMD stock and Another House is buying into AMD .

Same with Intel Way more volumn than normal

Intel is taking a beating because we're on the verge of a recession, not because of AMD...
During a recession, chips are one of the first things to get tightened.

AMD was NOT downgraded today...they are down today because Intel and the CPU sector in general is down (the BofA downgrade on Intel and AMD was yesterday).
Intel is also trading at 5x their 10 day average today...
154.8 Million shares so far...

A recession should do more damage to Intel as they stand to lose a greater percentage of lucrative high-margin sales by the forthcoming tight-fisted consumers versus AMD whose existing products (low ASPs) are likely to be "less unfavored".

I would think Apple, whose product mix is dominated by high-end sales, stands to have their financials impacted even more so than Intel's.

Online pr0n and beer brewers should do just fine though.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Intel is 20X more recession proof than AMD. As far as processor selling at the lowend . All intel has to do is price 1 qcore 1 dual core at same as AMDs lowend and its over. Intels last margins were 50%+ What was AMDs . It seems to me Intel is holding 4 aces and a wildcard.

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: trajan2050
Intel last year: 52wk Range: 18.75 - 27.99 still in the middle of trading range at 22.56

AMD last year 52wk Range: 6.75 - 20.63
Now 6.12

AMD down more than 70% in the last year. This is much more than short term price fluctuations.

It's all just selective BS...
Compare Intel and AMD from when Athlon was first introduced.

Aug 1999, AMD was at a split adjusted $8.50, and Intel was at a split adjusted $33.20...
AMD is down 20% and Intel is down 31% from then...

What's your point here?

Include reinvested dividends and what does total return look like?

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: Nemesis 1
Intel is 20X more recession proof than AMD. As far as processor selling at the lowend . All intel has to do is price 1 qcore 1 dual core at same as AMDs lowend and its over. Intels last margins were 50%+ What was AMDs . It seems to me Intel is holding 4 aces and a wildcard.

I am not talking about the health of the company.

I am referring to the magnitude of change that the companies financials will undergo (heard of PFO?) when market dynamics shift as much as a recession will shift them.

AMD's PFO is much more low-margin centric, so metrics of business finances such as PFO are less likely to "shift to the downside" than a company whose PFO is more enriched with high-margin stuff.

This has nothing to do with the health of the company, this has everything to do with wallstreet and the expectations of impact to earnings, PFO, etc.

I'd expect Apple stock to take a very substantial hit on inflation rumors than AMD stock. But I agree that in the event of a recession the health of AMD is more suspect than the health of Apple.

 

[Viditor]

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: Viditor

Originally posted by: trajan2050
Intel last year: 52wk Range: 18.75 - 27.99 still in the middle of trading range at 22.56

AMD last year 52wk Range: 6.75 - 20.63
Now 6.12

AMD down more than 70% in the last year. This is much more than short term price fluctuations.

It's all just selective BS...
Compare Intel and AMD from when Athlon was first introduced.

Aug 1999, AMD was at a split adjusted $8.50, and Intel was at a split adjusted $33.20...
AMD is down 20% and Intel is down 31% from then...

What's your point here?

Include reinvested dividends and what does total return look like?

You and Nemesis are completely missing the point...which was "It's all just selective BS..."

There are dozens of different time frames you can choose from to try and make any kind of point you want to here, but none of them really matter.

Edit: BTW, to answer your question, ROI on AMD would still be higher than Intel in that timeframe, even with an Intel DRIP account (Dividend ReInvestment Program).

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: v8envy
Oh, I don't know about that. If you remember I was the one advising against going long AMD during the down trend at $10, $9, 8 because the chart looked like roadkill and the down trend was very much in progress and confirmed by every indicator I put faith in.

I'm seeing a very likely bottom at $5.10, at least in the 3-6 month timeframe. In fact, there may even be a short term bounce to 6.5 later today. My chart reading tea leaves tell me so.

Impressive . But I said a year ago that AMD was going to $7 or lower per share I believe It was close to exactly 1 year ago. NO one anywhere made that call but myself. I owe a lot to Dothan . I could see clearly Intel was ascending and AMD was descending. Of course the $7 price I stated at this forum was 1 year ago but way earlier at other forums. Actually I made the call befor Intel Demoed C2D. I was a little late on Shorting AMD . Margin calls had me pretty nervious. But it worked out great.

 

[nyker96]

Phenom is delayed again, so by then they will put out something that's like very old and intel would have already out with 45nm parts, this is going to be another slaughter. Don't know what happened to that company and who is screwing with the r&d department. even a few core revisions of X2s would help the company but not even that. Maybe they should just experiment in putting out a 45nm X2 and glued up twoo X2 to a quad, maybe that'd be better. I expect the company to fall below $5 in 6 months time if further technical problem are announced.

 

[v8envy]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

A recession should do more damage to Intel as they stand to lose a greater percentage of lucrative high-margin sales by the forthcoming tight-fisted consumers versus AMD whose existing products (low ASPs) are likely to be "less unfavored".

I would think Apple, whose product mix is dominated by high-end sales, stands to have their financials impacted even more so than Intel's.

Online pr0n and beer brewers should do just fine though.

Exactly the opposite -- recessions hit the 'average joe' in the wallet, not so much people who aren't working for a living. Apple's products fit more into the 'luxury item' niche than basic computing. People are and will continue forking over for that.

Both companies are going to be impacted. I doubt Intel will take a higher % hit in the server space. Or the desktop space. Or mobile space. A few tens of dollars isn't going to make a big difference to the consumer -- the decision will be 'buy or not buy', not "hmm I can save twenty bucks by going with this Phenom thing I've been hearing so many terrible things about..."

 

[konceptz]

I'm going to set up a paypal donation site for AMD. I would almost consider that a wise investment even though I'm an Intel guy.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Viditor I would have loved to bought MS whem Lotus 123 was hot . $5,000 invested than and we be on easy street. I bought Lotus I did alright But MS would have been nice.

Funny thing is My wife talked me into buying Home shopping network . We couldn't of hit it better . I bought 1 month befor the hugh short sqeeze . Talk about fast splits it was one hell of a ride. and I jumped out on the 4th split. I held the shares less than 2months and made close to 7x my orginal investment. To bad I young than and didn't have the resources to take advantages of all the opertunities of that time. God those were wild times DEC overtook IBM in market cap andless than 1 year DEC was gone. IBM should have been held accountable. Talk about a monopoly at the time IBM was it.