NEXT-Gen Consoles

[tatteredpotato]

Originally posted by: Fox5
...Traditional silicon manufacturing is going to hit a wall around then, so there won't be any big shifts in technology for a while after that.

That's what they always say, I'm a believer in human innovation though

 

[herkulease]

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian

Originally posted by: Fox5
...Traditional silicon manufacturing is going to hit a wall around then, so there won't be any big shifts in technology for a while after that.

That's what they always say, I'm a believer in human innovation though

True we probably be able to move the wall. But at some point gaming wise we'll hit the wall.

when we are able to push out games at 1920x1080, 16AA, 120fps. what are they gonna push for?

 

[dougp]

I'd rather have to swap discs on my 360 than the slow ass load times on my PS3.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: dougp
I'd rather have to swap discs on my 360 than the slow ass load times on my PS3.

That is a good point... you can't overlook the advantages of MS's media choice.

Microsoft's choice of DVD has been a limitation for the PS3 almost as much as for the Xbox 360. Most cross-platform developers will develop for the lowest common denominator, so it's mostly just the PS3 exclusives that take advantage of the capacity of Blu-Ray. Carmack is stuck in the PC developer mindset, which is why he's not letting the Xbox 360's limited disc capacity constrain his games.

 

[venkman]

The economic climate has pushed back everyones next move 2 years at least.

 

[Fox5]

Originally posted by: herkulease

Originally posted by: ObscureCaucasian

Originally posted by: Fox5
...Traditional silicon manufacturing is going to hit a wall around then, so there won't be any big shifts in technology for a while after that.

That's what they always say, I'm a believer in human innovation though

True we probably be able to move the wall. But at some point gaming wise we'll hit the wall.

when we are able to push out games at 1920x1080, 16AA, 120fps. what are they gonna push for?

Well, considering we're not even close to that yet, I'd say we have a while to go.
But diminishing returns are definitely a factor, especially on a TV, which may or may not have the best visual quality to begin with, viewed at a distance.
Additionally, we may surpass the problems related to silicon manufacturing, but it's going to be a major speed bump that will slow hardware progress.

 

[brblx]

honestly, i don't think we'll ever see that. as consoles get more powerful, graphics will become more complex and be coded less efficiently. GTA6 will still be chugging along at 20fps...

 

[Injury]

I stopped reading the replies once this turned into a swamp of crap leading away from the real topic at hand, but the simple matter is that the next-gen consoles won't even be spoken about for at least another year, with releases at the ABSOLUTE EARLIEST in late 2011, but more likely late 2012+.

Simply put, the current generation is just NOW reaching the height of popularity and starting to attract some of the late-adopters. The PS2 really isn't even dead yet. Why would Sony be in a rush to have 3 generations of consoles out on the market when lots of people can't even pony up the money for a PS3? They would either have to slash the PS3 price to ridiculous levels or risk making the PS3 and "PS4" comparable in price. That would be market suicide. MS won't bring out another system until they can reduce the failure rate of the current one and save SOME face. Considering the failure rate of launch-day 360s, too many people would avoid it after being bitten by the current gen. I have a feeling lots of people would wait a year or two to buy just to see what sort of longevity it would have. The Wii doesn't need a successor now. It needs games. It needs the limits of the system to be pushed and it needs to grow up a bit. Unless Nintendo has another ground-breaking idea up their sleeve, they would fail hard by releasing a new console in the next year or two. Considering a lot of their sales have been by non-typical audiences, they aren't going to get them to buy ANOTHER console if it doesn't do something incredible.

 

[BD2003]

It'll probably be in 2011-2012 for the next microsoft and nintendo box, 2013 for the PS3.

There's a ton of reasons this gen is sticking around longer. The Wii has proven that a cheap, weak system can sell with the right software. And the PS3 has proven that an expensive, wont sell without the right software.

We're just now getting to that phase in the generation where the addons start coming out, like the sega CD/32x, 64DD, Natal, etc and of course the slim editions usually mark the near end.

Each generation has had a fairly game changing innovation behind it - whether it was mode7/many buttons for the 16bit era, CDs and analog sticks for the 32/64bit era, DVDs and HDDs for the last gen, and HD graphics, motion/IR and major online capabilities for this gen.

2nd gen motion control like natal need to be tried and tested before the next gen, just like CDs and online were tested with earlier gens. Direct downloads may also be huge, but there's 100% absolutely going to be disc drives in them - not enough of the US has broadband.

Diminishing returns on image quality as 3d hardware progresses also is going to drag it out.

Since ex-PC developers are really driving the software and hardware (at least in the US), I hope they take the opportunity to build some scalability into the next gen of consoles. I'd really love the opportunity to spend more money and get a faster box than can display at higher/resolution framerate than the standard next gen box. This is fairly easy to accomplish as long as proper standards are set by microsoft ahead of time- theyve done a very good job with the 360, forcing baseline standards like HD and widescreen for all games.

 

[BenSkywalker]

BTW, I think the next consoles would be smart to hold off until 2012/2013. Traditional silicon manufacturing is going to hit a wall around then, so there won't be any big shifts in technology for a while after that.

I find that extremely unlikely. The 'wall' we are going to run into is always ~five years out. I think we are getting closer to having issues using silicon, but not within the relatively close future.

I'd rather have to swap discs on my 360 than the slow ass load times on my PS3.

Only games I've had issues with are the onest that don't let you install. For those that do, seems the PS3 is normally a reasonable amount faster loading then the 360.

That is a good point... you can't overlook the advantages of MS's media choice.

Outside of allowing them to launch earlier/cheaper what else is there? Holding the industry back? If Sony didn't have an install option that allowed for significantly faster then optical media packed into every console I think that would certainly be a very valid point, but slower load times on the PS3 are almost always the fault of the devs not utilizing the hardware(and we aren't talking about advanced parallel programming tasks on souped up DSPs, just talking about installing).

Microsoft's choice of DVD has been a limitation for the PS3 almost as much as for the Xbox 360. Most cross-platform developers will develop for the lowest common denominator, so it's mostly just the PS3 exclusives that take advantage of the capacity of Blu-Ray.

Exactly, and the later in the life cycle we get, the more apparent this is becoming.

Carmack is stuck in the PC developer mindset, which is why he's not letting the Xbox 360's limited disc capacity constrain his games.

That may be true to some extent, but he already changed his vision from 5 zones to two to allow 360 development to continue. He brought up another issue at his keynote in QuakeCon this year too, besides the limitation of the physical media(which he implied was MS's biggest mistake- guess he must be a PS3 fanboi too ) the PS3 also has the advantage of using considerably more demanding compression methods due to the additional cores on the system. To be fair, he did again lament the difficulty of developing for the PS3, but then again he also talked about they pretty much had a person whose job it has been to try and figure out how to get everything to fit on 2 DVDs for MS as an ongoing process throughout development.

Simply put, the current generation is just NOW reaching the height of popularity and starting to attract some of the late-adopters.

We are likely still no higher then 1/3 of the consoles for this generation that will sell(for the HD systems anyway).

Since ex-PC developers are really driving the software and hardware (at least in the US), I hope they take the opportunity to build some scalability into the next gen of consoles.

Scalability would help destroy the console market, probably better then anything except taking away removeable media. Developers can write exceptionally tight code right now, any scalability on the hardware side and that quickly becomes a major issue. Either developers will completely ignore it overwhelmingly(as they did with the N64- to my dismay) or they will utilize it and fractionalize the market dropping game sales a staggering amount, perhaps as low as PC levels. Scalability has no place in the console market, it will not work. I'm not saying I wouldn't like it, I bought most hardware add ons for every console, just none of them have worked out well at all in the long run.

 

[RESmonkey]

Quit bitching about toys, people. They're both okay.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Queasy
Probably not until 2012 due to several factors such as the economy, being able to offer new features via software, new motion controls coming out, etc.

I want a simple game pad. Thats the fun. I I want to swing a baseball bat, I will go outside and do so.