Question Next CPU/Platform Upgrade Timing?

[dsc106]

Specs in my sig: essentially, a 2012 Sandy Bridge E 3.2ghz 6-core build (2nd gen core i7). 64gb RAM. Upgraded with GTX 1080 TI. Still kicking well, but I'm a video editor, and gamer on the side.

This nothing urgent, but my timeline is beginning to feel like "within the next 18 months, 2 years tops" for a core system upgrade. But here are my questions:

1. How noticeable would a CPU upgrade today be? For 4K video with HEVC, I am guessing it would be noticeable. For everything else, i.e. games, I am guessing kinda-sorta but not really worth it?

2. Thoughts on timing? Ice Lake 10nm is around the corner, and that seems like a good time to move on, so sometime in early 2020, or by the end of year 2020. Thoughts?

3. I am not familiar with Intel's usual product plans: should we expect an Ice Lake 10nm Extreme Chip within the next 18 months? Or will I find myself preferring a 14nm Extreme Chip with more cores for video editing?

My thoughts for an upgrade are the following:

- Move from 64gb RAM to 128gb.
- Move from 6-core 3.2ghz to as many cores as I can and as fast as I can (12 core 4.5ghz??)
- Acquire new chip tech that better supports HEVC, h.265, 4K, HDR, 10-bit color, etc.
- Motherboard with all new features for easy use of PCI-E M.2 SSDs and lots of SATA ports, etc.

Will next year be good timing? Or is this year just as good as any, or is my system strong enough and upgrade benefits minimal enough that I should press through longer for a big breakthrough in 2021?

It seems DDR5 isn't going to be worth waiting for and the CPU upgrade cycles have really slowed down.

I am also wondering if my Corsair 850 PSU will be good to keep chugging on a new rig, or if I need to upgrade it for either age (it will be 8 years old in 2020) or power (is 850w enough for a high powered rig these days / next year?)

If this seems premature, it is because I need to start budgeting and planning now to project my upgrade next year, and also want to get an idea of what I should target roughly for timing. It's nice to be in a place where there is no pressing need, but also realizing that as 4K h.265 HEVC, HDR, and other things keep moving forward the time is drawing near where a new, strong platform may serve me well for another 7-10 years (I can't believe that's how long upgrade cycles for PCs have moved to! I remember having to upgrade every 2 years "back in the day"...)

Thank you!

 

[Markfw]

Thank you all! I am going to keep my eye on this. And I think you have answered all you feasibly can - much appreciated - so let me just ask in summary to make sure I am tracking all I reading here and online correctly:

1. TR3, while an unknown quantity, MAY not see the same decline in gaming/single threaded performance as the current 2000 generation due to a new design? But this is TBD, but there are some hopeful indicators?

2. Threadripper in general is a beast when it comes to cores + some high end features such as quad-channel memory up to 128gb. However, the performance gains here are questionable in most of today's benchmarks, including Adobe Premiere and Davinci Resolve, due to sub-optimal multicore optimization at high core counts? And, they may be made even less beneficial in light of Ryzen 3 having a 12-core CPU?

If #2 is the case, it's a tough one. All it takes is a software update to these programs to really unlock the potential of Threadripper, especially if #1 ends up being that the single threaded performance stays high on TR3. But then, even Ryzen 3000 with 12-cores is pretty compelling, sans the 64gb memory cap (well, I guess you can technically get around that and do 128gb dual channel... technically). It's just a shame I can't get an AM4 board and Ryzen 3000 and then simply swap out to a TR3 when it launches if its worth it.

I'll play the waiting game a bit longer here and watch for developments. I wouldn't spring before August, and if TR3 is worth it and around the corner it wouldn't be too much of an issue for me to wait until Q1 2020.

Ryzen 3000 has much better memory management, and Threadripper 3000 series will likely be a real killer. But again, wait for benchmarks.

 

[dsc106]

One more question: this can't tell the whole story, but looking at Passmark my current old 3930k VS the top end threadripper:

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/compare/Intel-i7-3930K-vs-AMD-Ryzen-Threadripper-2990WX/902vs3309

Single threaded rating is hardly any better on the Threadripper. The overall score is much higher, but how much software really takes advantage of that theoretical speed?

Compared to the Ryzen 7 Pro, a bit more of a boost in single threaded and only a 50% increase overall?

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/compare/Intel-i7-3930K-vs-AMD-Ryzen-7-PRO-2700X/902vs3292

I would have thought after these years, even the current gen would be a bigger jump?

 

[Markfw]

One more question: this can't tell the whole story, but looking at Passmark my current old 3930k VS the top end threadripper:

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/compare/Intel-i7-3930K-vs-AMD-Ryzen-Threadripper-2990WX/902vs3309

Single threaded rating is hardly any better on the Threadripper. The overall score is much higher, but how much software really takes advantage of that theoretical speed?

Compared to the Ryzen 7 Pro, a bit more of a boost in single threaded and only a 50% increase overall?

https://www.cpubenchmark.net/compare/Intel-i7-3930K-vs-AMD-Ryzen-7-PRO-2700X/902vs3292

I would have thought after these years, even the current gen would be a bigger jump?

As I said, in MT score, it demolishes what you have. In single thread, the 3000 series probably is much higher. If you want MT score, and now, get threadripper. If you want single threaded score, wait for benchmarks, and decide if 12 core is enough or do you want threadripper 3000 series

 

[dsc106]

No one seems to have mentioned AMD's lower AVX performance than Intel's?

AVX performance is pretty important for what I do.

Thoughts?

(Also, RE: the above on benchmarks, I was merely pointing out my surprise that CPU advancements (regardless of vendor), in regards to single core performance, VS my sandy bridge, are surprisingly non-substantial even after 7 years).

 

[Markfw]

No one seems to have mentioned AMD's lower AVX performance than Intel's?

AVX performance is pretty important for what I do.

Thoughts?

(Also, RE: the above on benchmarks, I was merely pointing out my surprise that CPU advancements (regardless of vendor), in regards to single core performance, VS my sandy bridge, are surprisingly non-substantial even after 7 years).

Ryzen 3000 series has double the AVX performance. Wait until benchmarks are out to decide, but there will be a big jump.

 

[jpiniero]

No one seems to have mentioned AMD's lower AVX performance than Intel's?

Skylake Client and friends is the same flops/cycle as Zen 2. Most apps people use here (games) don't use AVX-512.