Newest State Polling.... Holy Crap edition

[Stoneburner]

First, some CNN ones:

CNN / TIME / ORC
9/21-23/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Colorado 794 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0

Michigan 755 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46
Obama 49, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Pennsylvania 730 LV, 3.5%
Obama 53, McCain 44
OBama 51, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 1

West Virginia 694 LV, 3.5%
McCain 50, Obama 46
McCain 49, Obama 44, Nader 5, McKinney 1

Montana 737 LV, 3.5%
McCain 54, Obama 43
McCain 49, Obama 40, Nader 1, Barr 1


Looks good for Obama.

On the national front: NBC is showing obama up 48 to 46. THis is curious because this poll is VERY highly regarded. It runs contrary to most other polls though. Ras shos obama up two as well, but WAPO, FOx, DIAGEO, Gallup, and research 2000 are showing much larger national leads for bama. IT boils down to this: Obama is ahead nationally for whatever its worth.

Back to the states!

StrategicVision: FL, PA (9/21-23)

By Eric Dienstfrey

Strategic Vision (R)
9/21-23/08; 1,200 LV, 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida
McCain 48, Obama 45

Pennsylvania
Obama 47, McCain 46

Good pollster, showing tight races in these two.

INsider Advantage has Obama up 50 to 41 in CO (Good pollster)

Markwest has Obama up 47 to 45. FIrst poll in a while to show an obama lead. However, I HAVE NO IDEA what the rep of this pollster is

_______________________________________________________________________________


















First, some raskassmussen:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_mn_nc_918.php

Obama up 52 to 44 in Minn!
McCain up 50 to 47 in NC!

Even more shocking is Hagan up 51 to 45 against Liddy Dole for the SEnate Seat! Is Dole the new Santorum? Probably more of a George Allen, looks to be losing a VERY close one.

Some more surprising numbers:

http://www.sefermpost.com/sefe...9/michigan-poll-b.html

Never heard of these peoples but it has Obama up 50 to 41 in Mich.

There's a suffolk Uni poll showing mccain 46 to 45 in Nevada.

And finally, A SUSA showing Obama up 51 to 46 in Virginia.

Damn near tie in NC and Obama rising in Virgiia ... both states with lots of african americans...

 

[jpeyton]

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Obama established his ground game early, and had a lot of money in the primaries to do it with.

In crucial swing states like New Mexico (which is now almost solid blue), Obama has 4x as many field offices as McCain, packed with paid and volunteer staffers who have helped register hundreds of thousands of new Democrats to vote in the primaries and for the general.

That's why most respected pollsters are saying that Obama will almost certainly over-perform compared to his polling numbers by a few points. If a state is tied going into election day, the huge disparity in new registrations for the Democrats will put Obama over the top. And if a state is leaning Dem, it will be solid Dem when the actual numbers come in.

That's how the extended primary helped Obama greatly increase his chances of winning. When he wins on election day, that will be the second hard-fought political battle he has won this year.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Obama established his ground game early, and had a lot of money in the primaries to do it with.

In crucial swing states like New Mexico (which is now almost solid blue), Obama has 4x as many field offices as McCain, packed with paid and volunteer staffers who have helped register hundreds of thousands of new Democrats to vote in the primaries and for the general.

That's why most respected pollsters are saying that Obama will almost certainly over-perform compared to his polling numbers by a few points. If a state is tied going into election day, the huge disparity in new registrations for the Democrats will put Obama over the top. And if a state is leaning Dem, it will be solid Dem when the actual numbers come in.

That's how the extended primary helped Obama greatly increase his chances of winning. When he wins on election day, that will be the second hard-fought political battle he has won this year.

Yeah, the ground game is understimated by most people. Why do people think McCain has been running a desperation campaign for so long? He sees the fundamentals. He just doesn't have the resources and the structural efficiency to do what Obama is doing. He should have been digging in roots after securing the nomination. INstead he's running a bizzare flip flopping campaign that has CONSERVATIVES worried about his sanity. He's runnng a national attention campaign.

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Obama established his ground game early, and had a lot of money in the primaries to do it with.

In crucial swing states like New Mexico (which is now almost solid blue), Obama has 4x as many field offices as McCain, packed with paid and volunteer staffers who have helped register hundreds of thousands of new Democrats to vote in the primaries and for the general.

That's why most respected pollsters are saying that Obama will almost certainly over-perform compared to his polling numbers by a few points. If a state is tied going into election day, the huge disparity in new registrations for the Democrats will put Obama over the top. And if a state is leaning Dem, it will be solid Dem when the actual numbers come in.

That's how the extended primary helped Obama greatly increase his chances of winning. When he wins on election day, that will be the second hard-fought political battle he has won this year.

Yes, Obama has a superb organization at almost all levels. Here's a black man beating first Hillary and now, just maybe, slightly UP on McCain. A year ago Obama was a nobody and most blacks thought he couldn't get the nomination let alone win. The smart money was on Hillary and Giuliani! LOL!

The problems for the Dems are:

1. Keep the black community heavily committed to voting;
2. Get the kids to the polls; (they can get laid after the vote)
3. Getting Biden to make fewer smart remarks and more intelligent ones, such as "Being a veteran is not the same as being there for the veterans";
4. Being on the right side of the huge economic issues now confronting Congress and the nation;
5. Slowly pushing the McCain/Palin agenda onto an ice floe in the Bering Straits.


-Robert

 

[heyheybooboo]

In NC Dole is losing steam because of her 'double-talk' express ...

Doles Are Investors In Lehman Oil Hedge Fund

Oil is becoming a major issue in the surprisingly tight U.S. Senate race in North Carolina between incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. But it?s also apparently a financial consideration for the senator, despite her claims to the contrary.

Dole?s husband, former Senate majority leader and 1996 Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole, has at least $1 million invested in an offshore Lehman Brothers hedge fund that invests in oil, gas and natural gas, Politico reports, citing Senate financial disclosures.

Dole has attacked Hagan, a North Carolina state senator, for her investments in oil wells and oil stocks. The senator also claimed that neither she nor her husband ?own oil stocks,? which is technically true. But the couple did earn between $51,000 and $100,000 last year from their investment in the Lehman oil hedge fund

 

[BoberFett]

Are we supposed to be surprised that MN is voting Democrat? Remember, we're the only state Mondale won. This place is solidly blue.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: BoberFett
Are we supposed to be surprised that MN is voting Democrat? Remember, we're the only state Mondale won. This place is solidly blue.

It was pretty close after the convention

McCain -"it was all good just a week ago"

 

[Genx87]

Though it has been close the last two elections. 2 and 3% wins by Democrats respectively.

The MN results go up and down and all over the place. I have tried to find a guage but one day a poll comes out with one tied. The other has a large lead.

The senatorial race is amusing because last week there was a poll that had it as 41 Coleman, 38% Franken and 18% barkley.

This week 47 Coleman, 47 Franken, Barkley at 3%.

I'd predict a comfortable 5% win for Coleman and a 3-5% win for Obama in MN come November.

 

[Moonbeam]

McRichElitist McDonald is ahead in rural America by 10% because of he carries a pitch fork and has a hairy tail and hooves and reminds the guys of their first love.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
McRichElitist McDonald is ahead in rural America by 10% because of he carries a pitch fork and has a hairy tail and hooves and reminds the guys of their first love.

And who does the inner city crackheads think Obama reminds them of?

 

[Stoneburner]

What' surprising about the polling is how SUDDEN the shifts are. McCain had a typical national bounce with a rise and slow drop but with the state polling, the ball went up and immediately deflated.

I thought NC and VA were moving out of contention. Now it seems only OH is moving out of contention while FLorida, VA, NC, MT and MO are moving rapidly back to toss up status.

And the drop off correlates more with Palin's botched interview rather than the Financial Meltdown...

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
First, some raskassmussen:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_mn_nc_918.php

Obama up 52 to 44 in Minn!
McCain up 50 to 47 in NC!

Even more shocking is Hagan up 51 to 45 against Liddy Dole for the SEnate Seat! Is Dole the new Santorum? Probably more of a George Allen, looks to be losing a VERY close one.

Some more surprising numbers:

http://www.sefermpost.com/sefe...9/michigan-poll-b.html

Never heard of these peoples but it has Obama up 50 to 41 in Mich.

There's a suffolk Uni poll showing mccain 46 to 45 in Nevada.

And finally, A SUSA showing Obama up 51 to 46 in Virginia.

Damn near tie in NC and Obama rising in Virgiia ... both states with lots of african americans...

I can affirm that in Northern VA, all I see is Obama stickers. Everywhere. I've seen maybe two McCain stickers in two weeks. So not surprised about the poll for VA.

 

[Stoneburner]

Obama is up 46 to 44 in PA according to an NBC poll

Obama is up 53 to 41 in NM according to PPP

 

[UberNeuman]

Originally posted by: Genx87

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
McRichElitist McDonald is ahead in rural America by 10% because of he carries a pitch fork and has a hairy tail and hooves and reminds the guys of their first love.

And who does the inner city crackheads think Obama reminds them of?

You mean the ones in Wasilla, Alaska?

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
First, some raskassmussen:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_mn_nc_918.php

Obama up 52 to 44 in Minn!
McCain up 50 to 47 in NC!

Even more shocking is Hagan up 51 to 45 against Liddy Dole for the SEnate Seat! Is Dole the new Santorum? Probably more of a George Allen, looks to be losing a VERY close one.

Some more surprising numbers:

http://www.sefermpost.com/sefe...9/michigan-poll-b.html

Never heard of these peoples but it has Obama up 50 to 41 in Mich.

There's a suffolk Uni poll showing mccain 46 to 45 in Nevada.

And finally, A SUSA showing Obama up 51 to 46 in Virginia.

Damn near tie in NC and Obama rising in Virgiia ... both states with lots of african americans...

I can affirm that in Northern VA, all I see is Obama stickers. Everywhere. I've seen maybe two McCain stickers in two weeks. So not surprised about the poll for VA.

IT was North VA that pushed Webb over the top too. I don't have much internal information on VA ... Is it Mark Warner who is pushing up Obama's numbers? I Mean Webb, Warner, and Kaine, and now a former republican governor are all pushing for Obama. Even during McCain's bounce the polling was relatively close. IS it just demographic change?

 

[GTKeeper]

I think the most interesting aspect of this whole election will be how much did the new voter registration drives help Obama and how well were they measured BEFORE the election.

 

[Moonbeam]

That would be 'who do' you think he reminds the Homies of.

I guess a Whodo.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
First, some raskassmussen:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rasmussen_mn_nc_918.php

Obama up 52 to 44 in Minn!
McCain up 50 to 47 in NC!

Even more shocking is Hagan up 51 to 45 against Liddy Dole for the SEnate Seat! Is Dole the new Santorum? Probably more of a George Allen, looks to be losing a VERY close one.

Some more surprising numbers:

http://www.sefermpost.com/sefe...9/michigan-poll-b.html

Never heard of these peoples but it has Obama up 50 to 41 in Mich.

There's a suffolk Uni poll showing mccain 46 to 45 in Nevada.

And finally, A SUSA showing Obama up 51 to 46 in Virginia.

Damn near tie in NC and Obama rising in Virgiia ... both states with lots of african americans...

I can affirm that in Northern VA, all I see is Obama stickers. Everywhere. I've seen maybe two McCain stickers in two weeks. So not surprised about the poll for VA.

IT was North VA that pushed Webb over the top too. I don't have much internal information on VA ... Is it Mark Warner who is pushing up Obama's numbers? I Mean Webb, Warner, and Kaine, and now a former republican governor are all pushing for Obama. Even during McCain's bounce the polling was relatively close. IS it just demographic change?

I can only speak for the North VA urban areas (DC Metro - Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax area), but the ground game for Obama is noticeable. I've seen them at a bunch of Metro stops (blue line to VA) helping people register to vote. But of course this area is pro-Obama. You make a good point about the key figures who are also helping VA. Can anyone comment that's from southern VA (Richmond, Norfolk, etc) on what it's like in your area?

 

[Starbuck1975]

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Kudos go to Obama for leveraging the power of the internet and his skills as a community organizer to mobilize the populace and change the way campaigns are run and fought.

I respect Obama's ground game, and as the first to do so to such an extent, this will be part of his legacy, regardless of whether or not he wins the election.

In essense, Obama is the anti-Rove...where Rovian tactics utilize a top down approach of misinformation and aggressive campaigning, Obama's approach is very much bottom up.

He deserves to win if his election strategy proves smarter, more versatile and more dynamic than McCain's.

Interestingly enough, the nucleus of Obama's campaign is the remnants of the Dean campaign...young, smart and polically active, this core team learned some hard lessons in the wake of Dean's implosion, and have adjusted accordingly...although Dean is not getting much credit, his campaign team set the foundation for Obama.

 

[Stoneburner]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...mccain_46_abcpost9.php

Another poll showing a VA shift.

I hate to pull a Steve Doocy but this is HOOOOOOOJ if Obama flips VA

 

[Blackjack200]

Originally posted by: Starbuck1975

Ground game...it's what wins elections.

Interestingly enough, the nucleus of Obama's campaign is the remnants of the Dean campaign...young, smart and polically active, this core team learned some hard lessons in the wake of Dean's implosion, and have adjusted accordingly...although Dean is not getting much credit, his campaign team set the foundation for Obama.

I agree with this. Howard Dean doesn't get half the credit he deserves.

 

[dmcowen674]

Listen to my Podcast

I said in the words of the late Tim Russert this time it will be:

North Carolina North Carolina North Carolina

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
McRichElitist McDonald is ahead in rural America by 10% because of he carries a pitch fork and has a hairy tail and hooves and reminds the guys of their first love.

As usual, Moonbean is correct, what is more depressing for the GOP is that are used to being up 20% in rural America with GWB type candidates. And since that 20% is needed to barely offset the more numerous urban voters not inspired by Pitchforks and straw shoveling, McCain needs to do more muckraking.

 

[Stoneburner]

Starbucks, I don't think Rove was entirely top down. OBama's campaign strategy, in my opinon, is Bush 2004 on steroids. Rove used the evangelical types for his ground game and he microtargetted communities AND demographics.

Obama = Dean Plus Rove times steroids.

 

[Lemon law]

I think this whole thread is going off into a delusional side tangent that files for divorce from reality.

This is still Hatfield v McCoy, 2008 edition. As its again the same Dimocratic part vs. the Republiratic party both asking for a chance to be the biggest banana, the highest possible goal in feudlandia.

Now we can focus on the various shortcomings of McCain or Obama, which this thread is doing, and divorce ourselves from reality.

Or we can refocus this thread back to results, and realize that John McCain is getting his ass kicked because he endorses the same policies that are failing all over the place. And no, my friends, the State of the American economy is not strong. And when McCain said that just it was, it was maybe not only wrong, but all clueless Republirats can offer in denial.

The family feud war for the even semi rational hearts and minds are over, and the McCoys, the McCains, and McBush's have done lost. And on a certainty, in the battle ground of deliver the bacon results.