Since you know the specific programs you will use, look at individual benchmarks for those programs. The Athlon is faster than the P4 in many programs and the P4 is faster than the Athlon in many others. Far too many people will jump on this thread and say: get processor X it is better no matter what on all programs. Ignore these people since they are obviously biased and obviously wrong.
The P4 runs at a faster frequency. However, it has a bigger penalty when it incorrectly guesses which path to follow when it reaches a fork in the road. (Processors predict which path to follow BEFORE it has enough information on which one it should follow). Thus programs with few branches run better on a P4 (Quake 3 and
Fluent are examples). Other programs have many branches and run better on the Athlon (3D Mark and MP3 recording are examples). Overall though, the speeds are nearly identical on average (Who cares about 1 or 2 extra frames per second in a game).
Tomshardware and
Anandtech are places to start.
PC1066 will be a boost to some programs. The current P4 chip barely needs the full bandwidth of PC800. Thus the first few P4s with PC1066 will not see any benefit from the extra bandwidth. However, the latency (delay for the first bit of data only) of the new RDRAM will be drastically reduced (even less latency than current DDR SDRAM). This latency decrease may make a significant boost in a few programs. Rambus (the company that owns the rights to RDRAM) announced about 6 months ago that PC1066 will cost about the same as PC800, but who really knows.
Other people will know more about the Northwood than I do. However I think it will come out quickly (January) at about $600. This is significantly higher than the $250 for the equivalent Athlon. I've heard many guesses on the Northwood performance, but I don't know exactly what will be different. Possibilities are: double the L2 cache (I'd expect a 10% boost on a few programs if that occurs), increasing the bus to 533 MHz (I'd expect a 15% boost on all programs if that occurs), changing to a .13 manufacturing process (expect cooler temperatures, less energy consumption, and maybe better overclocking if that occurs).
My conclusion: wait for the Northwood benchmarks. If it truely does have even a 10% speed boost, get one as it will be the fastest current processor in the next month or two (unless AMD has something up its sleeve). If Northwood benchmarks are basically the same as the current P4, get the Athlon as you will save a few bucks.