New study, more guns = LESS safe

[MagickMan]

http://www.wmctv.com/story/24027638/police-warn-of-knockout-game-injuries-crimes

Memphis is almost as much of a shithole of corruption and violence as Detroit, Chicago, or Miami, it's our "Florida" and if we (Tennesseans) could give it away to another state, we would. :\

 

[zinfamous]

Guess he doesn't live in the problem areas.


How much do you want to bet that most of Missouri's violent crime is concentrated in areas of St Louis and Kansas City.

...which is just like what is going on in Chicago. Why do people defend the conservative states for isolated and concentrated violence not representing the larger community, but ignoring the exact same thing occurring in a famously liberal big city?

odd, isn't it?

 

[rudeguy]

...which is just like what is going on in Chicago. Why do people defend the conservative states for isolated and concentrated violence not representing the larger community, but ignoring the exact same thing occurring in a famously liberal big city?

odd, isn't it?

because you are comparing a city to a state? Should we also exclude all the high crime areas of cities?

Compare apples to apples and its fair. Compare apples to orange groves and its not.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

...which is just like what is going on in Chicago. Why do people defend the conservative states for isolated and concentrated violence not representing the larger community, but ignoring the exact same thing occurring in a famously liberal big city?

odd, isn't it?

How much you want to bet the large cities in most states are under Democratic/liberal control? As well as these cities are where most of the state's violent crime occurs.

 

[TerryMathews]

...which is just like what is going on in Chicago. Why do people defend the conservative states for isolated and concentrated violence not representing the larger community, but ignoring the exact same thing occurring in a famously liberal big city?

odd, isn't it?

I wasn't aware of those cities having draconian gun control laws like Chicago. Link?

Chicago is used as an example because it is a large diverse city and had implemented basically all of the liberal gun control ideas except for micro stamping.

 

[HumblePie]

How much you want to bet the large cities in most states are under Democratic/liberal control? As well as these cities are where most of the state's violent crime occurs.

Not a bet I would take.

 

[Zargon]

How much you want to bet the large cities in most states are under Democratic/liberal control? As well as these cities are where most of the state's violent crime occurs.

naaaah

Chicago la democratic states
naaaaaaah


NOLA, STL, Detroit new york decades of DEM mayors (Bloomberg was a super fake replublican...seriously....big gov telling you what to own and what to eat or drink)

DC

naaaaah

 

[rudeguy]

So was the study ever released?

 

[Venix]

So was the study ever released?

Study

NRA-ILA analysis of study

As always, a healthy dose of skepticism for both sources is strongly advised.

 

[halik]

Unless the thesis is that there's some impulse-repsonse relationship that decays, I would imagine that the later data (2013, 2014) would destroy any sort of Granger causality they saw in the 3 years they looked at.

Spurious correlations generally indicate a latent variable, rather than decaying relationship.

 

[fskimospy]

Study

NRA-ILA analysis of study

As always, a healthy dose of skepticism for both sources is strongly advised.

The NRA source appears to lack analytic rigor and doesn't control for the country seeing a large overall decrease in homicides as a trend, something the study specifically attempted to control for. That's a pretty basic failure.

Then again the NRA piece is from a legislative action arm of a political advocacy group. It's job isn't to research, but to advance its agenda. While skepticism of any source is healthy, the NRA here should have a HUGE dose of it.

 

[Meghan54]

I've read this thread.....well, mostly....and I have a few questions maybe someone can answer.

First, why are the terms "violent crime" and "murder" used interchangeably by some? Murder is just a subset of violent crime, which also includes, and this is taken from the FBI's UCR (Uniform Crime Report, 2013, link below):

The descending order of UCR violent crimes are murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, followed by the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc...olent-crime-topic-page/violentcrimemain_final (Second paragraph, labeled Data Collection)

Seems quite a lot of violent crime can be and is committed without using guns, which seems to be the focus. So, to me, equating violent crime stats with murder stats seems rather useless. How many motor vehicle thefts involve guns?


This perusing of the FBI UCR brings up another point. What region of the U.S. would you more than likely become a victim of violent crime vs. other regions of the U.S.?

Give up?

The South by a good margin.

For all violent crime, the South had 41.1% of all reported violent crime in the U.S. in 2013, and 43.8% of all reported homicides, a number double any other region.
Northeast...16.1% of violent crimes and 13.8% of the nation's reported homicides.
Midwest...19.4%, 21.4%
West...23.5%, 21%

And people wonder why.......

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/uc...nd_population_distribution_by_region_2013.xls

 

[fskimospy]

An important thing to note is that by census region the south has about 37% of the population. (The land area deemed to be 'the south' is huge.) so while the south IS more violent than other regions, it's not as dramatic as all that.

 

[sm625]

This isnt a new study. While it is true that the murder rates in Missouri rose 17 percent relative to the rest of the US after the law was changed, it had actually increased by 32 percent during the five years prior to the change.

Missouri has been going downhill for a while. Just look at Ferguson. If you look at the trends you can see that the rate of increase in the murder rate did drop even though the murder rate itself still increased. But you have to have some rudimentary understanding of calculus to even comprehend this data. So it is not surprising that the gun grabbers continually latch onto this bogus study even though it really says nothing. It's actually kind of sad that the gun grabbers with all their bloomberg funding cannot come up with anything better than this.

 

[fskimospy]

This isnt a new study. While it is true that the murder rates in Missouri rose 17 percent relative to the rest of the US after the law was changed, it had actually increased by 32 percent during the five years prior to the change.

Missouri has been going downhill for a while. Just look at Ferguson. If you look at the trends you can see that the rate of increase in the murder rate did drop even though the murder rate itself still increased. But you have to have some rudimentary understanding of calculus to even comprehend this data. So it is not surprising that the gun grabbers continually latch onto this bogus study even though it really says nothing. It's actually kind of sad that the gun grabbers with all their bloomberg funding cannot come up with anything better than this.

Very bad source there. That is the website written by John Lott, a guns rights activist and the guy who wrote "More Guns, Less Crime", which is a pretty embarrassingly badly written book. (there are huge holes in his framework that he has refused to address)

As for his point here, it's basically the definition of cherry-picked data:

Guess what year Mr. Lott decided to use as his baseline? Yeah, the one in the middle of the big outlying trough. The researcher chose the years after the change because it was all the data that was available. Mr. Lott picked a single year where the rate of murders as compared to the US was particularly low and then extrapolated his figure from there. That's a big analytic no-no. Outliers should not be your baseline.

You don't need to understand calculus to see why this is a bad idea, basic research training lets you see through things like this. People such as John Lott will try and dupe you if you let them.

 

[moonbogg]

Guns are bad, ok? They kill people. I still like mine though. Don't tread on me.