New polling says Obama has big leads in key states...

[SP33Demon]

Link

October 14, 2008
Poll Update: Obama has big leads in key states
Posted: 12:20 PM ET

From CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Obama has taken a wide lead in Colorado, and several other states.

(CNN) ? A string of new state polls out Tuesday show John McCain continues to face an unfavorable landscape in several key battlegrounds with three weeks remaining until voters weigh in at the polls.

A series of new surveys from Quinnipiac University, the Wall Street Journal, and WashingtonPost.com suggest McCain is significantly behind in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado ? a state that hasn't voted Democratic in 16 years, and one where a loss could prove to be a fatal blow to McCain's White House hopes.

?Obama is surging nationwide, and we?re now seeing that reflected in almost all of the state polls,? noted CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. ?Bush?s record low approval ratings have combined with a tanking economy, an unpopular war, an off-balance McCain campaign, and one of the largest fundraising disparities in campaign history to create the perfect political storm.

In Minnesota, the new Quinnipiac poll has Obama up 11 points over McCain, 51-40 percent. Incorporating other recent surveys from the state, a CNN poll of polls in Minnesota shows Barack Obama's lead over the Arizona senator there is now about 9 points.

It's a similar picture in Wisconsin, where the Quinnipiac poll has Obama up 17 points, and where a new CNN poll of polls there shows the Illinois senator with an 11 point lead. That's nearly double the Democratic nominee?s lead just two-and-a-half weeks ago.

In Michigan, the state the McCain campaign officially pulled out of earlier this week, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Obama with a 16 point lead. Since McCain has pulled nearly all his staff from the state and essentially conceded its 17 electoral votes to Obama, there have not been enough recent polling there for a CNN poll of polls.

In what could be particularly bad news for McCain, the new Quinnipiac survey also shows the Arizona senator down 9 points in Colorado ? a steep decline from polls taken earlier this week that suggested the race was tied there. With McCain's path to the nomination continuing to narrow, Colorado may just be a must-win state for the Arizona senator's White House chances to stay alive.

"Obama?s lead in Colorado ? a state the Democrats have won only twice since 1952 ? should be particularly worrisome for McCain," Silverleib said. "Obama can win the White House without Colorado?s nine electoral votes; McCain almost certainly cannot.?

Very alarming about Colorado here. Can McCain win without Colorado? In addition, did you think that McCain would be losing by double digits in Minnesota and Wisconsin as well as abandoning his campaign in Michigan as a lost cause? What are your thoughts?

 

[Red Dawn]

LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

 

[StageLeft]

He needs to get more mavericky with his campaign. Then he can win.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

He's so desperate I think he's doing that just to avoid being assinated by some hick after he loses the election.

 

[yowolabi]

I'm trying not to get too confident. I remember thinking that there's no way Bush can win... twice.

 

[yowolabi]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

Apparently McCain has never heard the story of the Briar Patch.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

If I were Obama, my response would be:

Senator McCain, I have tried to keep this campaign about the issues. You yourself said in 2000 that "I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." Now, in 2008, according to a recent study by the University of Wisconsin, virtually all of your campaign ads are negative, and you have been unable or unwilling to articulate a clear or consistent vision for how this country can dig itself out of its current financial mess.

I do know Bill Ayers, though I haven't spoken with him in years. He and I served together on the board of a charitable organization working on children's education in Chicago that was funded by Walter Annenberg, a longtime Republican philanthropist who served as Ambassador to England under Richard Nixon. The Bill Ayers I knew was a tenured college professor, not a bomb-throwing radical. I know he did some horrible and foolish things in his past, when I was 8 years old, and I have always condemned those actions in the strongest possible terms.

Now, while I prefer to keep this campaign positive, you have made that impossible by falling into the same kinds of dirty tricks campaigning that President Bush ran against you 8 years ago. With that in mind, Senator, let me point out that only one of this on this stage has been reprimanded by the US Senate for taking hundreds of thousands of dollars and tropical vacations from Charles Keating, who was trying to block investigation into the sames kinds of financial abuses that created our current financial crisis, forcing the last huge bailout of financial institutions by the federal government. That person is you. And only person running for vice president has been found by independent investigators to have abused her authority and violated state ethics regulations by trying to fire a cabinet official for personal reasons. That person is your running mate, Governor Palin.

Now, let's put all this nonsense aside. What the American people care about is the issues. Let's focus our attention on helping them, not on tearing each other apart.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

Especially when they are not in your favor.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

Neither does Bush. Seems to have served us all well

 

[Lemon law]

Almost all of the recent swing to Obama may be due to the recent financial crisis. If a total meltdown can be avoided, McCain might regain some of his losses. Three weeks to go folks, and a lot of current events can happen in those remaining three weeks to aid either Obama or McCain.

But at this point, I think its fairly clear, McCain is only preaching to his own choir when he tries to score on Ayers, Resco, and Wright. Hillary tried the same tactic, and it won her second place.

McCain has yet to find his issue, and he is, tic tock, running out of time.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

Especially when they are not in your favor.

OR rather since they can be made to say just about anything.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

You probably should. Here are two links that show the RCP final polls the morning of the election and one that shows the actual vote:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...toral_Count_Final.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

As you can see they only missed one state. They had Wisconsin for Bush based on a 0.9 percent Bush lead in the polls. It went for Kerry by .47 percent.

 

[Lemon law]

As for Cad, who does not put much weight in polls, McCain would win by a landslide if everyone thought like Cad. The point being, most people do not think like Cad does, and Cad is very likely to wake up this coming
November 5'th, a very unhappy camper.

 

[RichardE]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

If I were Obama, my response would be:

Senator McCain, I have tried to keep this campaign about the issues. You yourself said in 2000 that "I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." Now, in 2008, according to a recent study by the University of Wisconsin, virtually all of your campaign ads are negative, and you have been unable or unwilling to articulate a clear or consistent vision for how this country can dig itself out of its current financial mess.

I do know Bill Ayers, though I haven't spoken with him in years. He and I served together on the board of a charitable organization working on children's education in Chicago that was funded by Walter Annenberg, a longtime Republican philanthropist who served as Ambassador to England under Richard Nixon. The Bill Ayers I knew was a tenured college professor, not a bomb-throwing radical. I know he did some horrible and foolish things in his past, when I was 8 years old, and I have always condemned those actions in the strongest possible terms.

Now, while I prefer to keep this campaign positive, you have made that impossible by falling into the same kinds of dirty tricks campaigning that President Bush ran against you 8 years ago. With that in mind, Senator, let me point out that only one of this on this stage has been reprimanded by the US Senate for taking hundreds of thousands of dollars and tropical vacations from Charles Keating, who was trying to block investigation into the sames kinds of financial abuses that created our current financial crisis, forcing the last huge bailout of financial institutions by the federal government. That person is you. And only person running for vice president has been found by independent investigators to have abused her authority and violated state ethics regulations by trying to fire a cabinet official for personal reasons. That person is your running mate, Governor Palin.

Now, let's put all this nonsense aside. What the American people care about is the issues. Let's focus our attention on helping them, not on tearing each other apart.

So your the *man*

(Obamas speechwritere)

 

[Hugh H]

As many people have said, Obama has pretty much ALL Kerry 2004 states locked-up, plus Iowa, plus New Mexico.

He only needs ONE state out of Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, or Missouri to win.

Out of those, Virginia and Colorado are averaging over a 6-point advantage for Obama, while McCain is tied in NC and leading in none.

If nothing major happen in 3 weeks (read something like terrorist attack), this is over.

 

[jpeyton]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

Text

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

You probably should. Here are two links that show the RCP final polls the morning of the election and one that shows the actual vote:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...toral_Count_Final.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

As you can see they only missed one state. They had Wisconsin for Bush based on a 0.9 percent Bush lead in the polls. It went for Kerry by .47 percent.

That's a good point and you can see how Colorado was a Republican stronghold. Bush was up 5.2 pts going into the last week of the 2004 election.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

Especially when they are not in your favor.

:laugh:

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: Don Vito Corleone

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
LOL, McCain just said that he'll bring up Ayers in the next debate. This should really help his campaign:laugh:

If I were Obama, my response would be:

Senator McCain, I have tried to keep this campaign about the issues. You yourself said in 2000 that "I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." Now, in 2008, according to a recent study by the University of Wisconsin, virtually all of your campaign ads are negative, and you have been unable or unwilling to articulate a clear or consistent vision for how this country can dig itself out of its current financial mess.

I do know Bill Ayers, though I haven't spoken with him in years. He and I served together on the board of a charitable organization working on children's education in Chicago that was funded by Walter Annenberg, a longtime Republican philanthropist who served as Ambassador to England under Richard Nixon. The Bill Ayers I knew was a tenured college professor, not a bomb-throwing radical. I know he did some horrible and foolish things in his past, when I was 8 years old, and I have always condemned those actions in the strongest possible terms.

Now, while I prefer to keep this campaign positive, you have made that impossible by falling into the same kinds of dirty tricks campaigning that President Bush ran against you 8 years ago. With that in mind, Senator, let me point out that only one of this on this stage has been reprimanded by the US Senate for taking hundreds of thousands of dollars and tropical vacations from Charles Keating, who was trying to block investigation into the sames kinds of financial abuses that created our current financial crisis, forcing the last huge bailout of financial institutions by the federal government. That person is you. And only person running for vice president has been found by independent investigators to have abused her authority and violated state ethics regulations by trying to fire a cabinet official for personal reasons. That person is your running mate, Governor Palin.

Now, let's put all this nonsense aside. What the American people care about is the issues. Let's focus our attention on helping them, not on tearing each other apart.

I can just picture McCain's left cheek getting all red and pulsating after Obama lays that smack down on him

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

And? I guess I'm missing your point...oh wait that's because it's missing all together...

I bolded the facts about Colorado. You don't think that it's alarming for a Republican to be losing Colorado by 5-9pts this close to an election?

No, I don't put much weight in polls.

You probably should. Here are two links that show the RCP final polls the morning of the election and one that shows the actual vote:

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...toral_Count_Final.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

As you can see they only missed one state. They had Wisconsin for Bush based on a 0.9 percent Bush lead in the polls. It went for Kerry by .47 percent.

That's a good point and you can see how Colorado was a Republican stronghold. Bush was up 5.2 pts going into the last week of the 2004 election.

Final result in Colorado in 2004 was Bush by 4.67 percent

 

[Thump553]

Like CAD, I don't put much faith in polls. Especially after the primary season this spring, when the only consistency was the polls were usually way off.

But Quinnipiac is usually pretty reliable as far as polls go.

I think one of the great untold stories of this election is the sea change in the electorate. Single hot button voters (guns, gay marriage, etc) don't have so much influence anymore, and the electorate is growing very tired of legislating "morality." We want the government to perform governmental functions on a rational basis, and otherwise stay the heck out of our lives. The religious right has made some really bad stands over the last eight years, like stem cell research, that just don't gib with the modern world.

 

[Hugh H]

Colorado also has a large Hispanic population, which I believe is contributing geratly to Obama doing well in the polls there. The Republican Party went into a immigrant-hate frenzy during the last two years, and the only person in that party to go against that view, John McCain, largely backtracked from his position and fell in line with the anti-immigration stance (altough not as staunchly as other Republicans).

What the Republicans didn't anticipate, was that this large voting block in places like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado would strongly turn against them at the elections. If they continue their immigrant hate, they will probably kiss good-bye to their chances of winning New Mexico and Colorado for years to come.