New CNN/WMUR and Reuters polls show Trump pulling away from field

[SP33Demon]

To discredit the silly Monmouth poll that claims Cruz is leading.

Trump nearly doubles lead in NH

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump has a growing lead among likely primary voters in New Hampshire, and both he and Marco Rubio have gained ground in the state since September, according to a new CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Overall, 32% say they support Trump (up 6 points since September), with Rubio a distant second place with 14% (up 5 points). That 18-point lead is almost double the 10-point lead Trump held in September over businesswoman Carly Fiorina.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie holds third place in the new poll with 9%, followed closely by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (8%), Ohio Gov. John Kasich (7%), Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (6%), and both businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 5%. Fiorina has dropped 11 points since the September poll.

Trump now leading the GOP by 20 points according to Reuters poll

Trump is at 35 percent, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) takes second place with 15.3 percent.

Dr. Ben Carson comes in third with 12.3 percent, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
takes fourth place at 10.2 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ranks fifth with 7.4 percent.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) all received under three percent in the poll.

Yes, it's still early but if the Donald can sustain this staying power through the new year, then the Feb 1st Iowa Caucus is going to be very favorable because it's not going to leave enough time for GOP opponents to catch up. Thoughts?

 

[fskimospy]

To discredit the silly Monmouth poll that claims Cruz is leading.

Trump nearly doubles lead in NH


Trump now leading the GOP by 20 points according to Reuters poll


Yes, it's still early but if the Donald can sustain this staying power through the new year, then the Feb 1st Iowa Caucus is going to be very favorable because it's not going to leave enough time for GOP opponents to catch up. Thoughts?

God I hope so. He is god's gift to Democrats.

 

[soundforbjt]

Winning Iowa means almost nothing, look it up.

But I'm hoping for him to get the nomination.

 

[SP33Demon]

Winning Iowa means almost nothing, look it up.

But I'm hoping for him to get the nomination.

Maybe you didn't read the article. He's also doubled his lead in NH.

Although only a few delegates are chosen in the New Hampshire primary, its real importance comes from the massive media coverage it receives (along with the first caucus in Iowa); in recent decades the two states received about as much media attention as all other state contests combined.[1] Examples of this extraordinary coverage have been seen on the campuses of Dartmouth College and Saint Anselm College, as the colleges have held multiple national debates and have attracted media outlets like NPR, Fox News, CNN, NBC, and ABC. The publicity and momentum can be enormous from a decisive win by a frontrunner, or better-than-expected result in the New Hampshire primary. The upset or weak showing by a front-runner changes the calculus of national politics in a matter of hours, as happened in 1952 (D), 1968 (D), 1980 (R), and 2008 (D).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_primary

If he can pull off IA and NH, this is a white snowball that will steamroll the nation as the anti-PC vote and even hillary could be within striking distance if she fumbles along the way.

Meanwhile, Bush's opponents like Jeb are crying about a hillary/trump conspiracy:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-hillary-trump-theory

Jeb Bush Verified account
‏@JebBush

Maybe Donald negotiated a deal with his buddy @HillaryClinton. Continuing this path will put her in the White House.
12:08 PM - 8 Dec 2015

^Fuck Jeb and his weak vanilla PC stat quo self.

 

[umbrella39]

God I hope so. He is god's gift to Democrats.

+1 This guy is the gift that keeps on giving...

 

[Moonbeam]

The biggest fumble Hillary could make is the typical mistake LBDs make in assuming their position so intellectually superior that she couldn't possibly lose. Liberals have an inferior understanding of the moral imperatives that drive people including how those imperatives drive people to vote.

Liberals are all about thinking things through as to how to better things, appeals to our better natures, but Conservatives are all about fear and anger and vengeance and hate. Trump clearly knows what drives people at a gut level because he is driven that way himself. What exactly do you instinctively feel that Hillary stands for. Is it her ambition to be the first woman President? Do you feel a deep passion to serve? Why do you think so many Democrats would prefer Sanders?

 

[blankslate]

GOOD... FAN(fucking)TASTIC


because I now believe that like (in some instances) a person addicted a substance has to hit rock bottom before they can reform...

Perhaps a populace that is largely addicted to talking points, reality t.v., talking heads proposing simple-minded solutions to complex problems, and a love of ridicule for critical thinking has to see their government go completely dysfunctional before that populace will bother to educate themselves about their own government to provide enough of an influence to keep it from going full retard.


I say this because it is a minority of people who can name the 3 branches of the U.S. government and give a succinct description of those branches describing the separation of powers among them and their distinct roles in governance.



*e2a*
supporting link for assertion in last paragraph.
http://theweek.com/speedreads/44597...icans-cant-name-all-three-branches-government

Wednesday was Constitution Day, but many Americans need to brush up on their knowledge of the basic structure of government the Constitution created. A survey released this week showed that only a little more than a third of adults — 36 percent — can name all three branches of government, and a whopping 35 percent couldn't name any branches of government at all.

_____________________

 

[VRAMdemon]

The biggest fumble Hillary could make is the typical mistake LBDs make in assuming their position so intellectually superior that she couldn't possibly lose. Liberals have an inferior understanding of the moral imperatives that drive people including how those imperatives drive people to vote.

Liberals are all about thinking things through as to how to better things, appeals to our better natures, but Conservatives are all about fear and anger and vengeance and hate. Trump clearly knows what drives people at a gut level because he is driven that way himself. What exactly do you instinctively feel that Hillary stands for. Is it her ambition to be the first woman President? Do you feel a deep passion to serve? Why do you think so many Democrats would prefer Sanders?

Well...considering Trump is willing to contemplate tax increases to achieve spending cuts. He supports abortion with some exceptions and has gone so far as to defend funding Planned Parenthood. He has called for protective tariffs, a position heretical for Republicans, who are typically free traders. Although opposed to Obamacare, he has asserted how well that single-payer health care works in other countries. He could just be *GASP* a liberal!

 

[Rhonda the Sly]

If he can pull off IA and NH, this is a white snowball that will steamroll the nation as the anti-PC vote and even hillary could be within striking distance if she fumbles along the way.

Trump will need to convince people not on the far-right to vote for him and this is going to be greatly complicated by the fact that he doesn't like to talk policy. It'll be interesting to see the GOP infrastructure ramp up and attempt to shore him up. Meanwhile, there isn't a broad-appeal candidate on the left. Maybe Hillary is a go but she'll have to convince people she's trustworthy or make them feel that holding their nose and voting for her is better than a Trump Presidency. O'Malley exists... but as a distant 3rd to Clinton and Sanders, so he may as well not exist, too.

In short, a Trump victory means 2016 is going to be about convincing people who hate their party's candidate to vote for them anyway. I suppose all Presidential elections are like that but this one will be to an unusually high degree.

^Fuck Jeb and his weak vanilla PC stat quo self.

Weak, vanilla, low energy, PC stat quo self!

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Well...considering Trump is willing to contemplate tax increases to achieve spending cuts. He supports abortion with some exceptions and has gone so far as to defend funding Planned Parenthood. He has called for protective tariffs, a position heretical for Republicans, who are typically free traders. Although opposed to Obamacare, he has asserted how well that single-payer health care works in other countries. He could just be *GASP* a liberal!

Yup add to him refusing to sign Hrover Norqiests no taxes pledge. I think he said something like who is this guy & why would I sign for this nobody.

 

[SP33Demon]

Yup add to him refusing to sign Hrover Norqiests no taxes pledge. I think he said something like who is this guy & why would I sign for this nobody.

Taxes are still necessary, don't be silly.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Taxes are still necessary, don't be silly.

Yes that's why he earned some respect from me

 

[SNC]

What exactly do you instinctively feel that Hillary stands for. Is it her ambition to be the first woman President? Do you feel a deep passion to serve? Why do you think so many Democrats would prefer Sanders?

So what you are saying is people prefer to vote for someone because of why and not what ?

 

[K1052]

But I'm hoping for him to get the nomination.

Same. His nomination could deal the Republican party an epic reversal the like of which has not been seen in my lifetime.

 

[PricklyPete]

God I hope so. He is god's gift to Democrats.

I am somewhere in the middle with a lot if conservative view points (voted for Romney last cycle) ...and I would vote for Bernie Sanders over Trump every damn day of the week without a seconds thought.

 

[Spungo]

Meanwhile, Bush's opponents like Jeb are crying about a hillary/trump conspiracy:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-hillary-trump-theory

I love the implied meaning of this. Trump has no chance of winning (according to Jeb), but Trump is still more popular than Jeb. Maybe Jeb is the one who should drop out of the race.

The biggest fumble Hillary could make is the typical mistake LBDs make in assuming their position so intellectually superior that she couldn't possibly lose

Indeed. Kerry's campaign was a joke. There was no way he could lose to Bush! Until he did. Romney did the same thing. He was absolutely certain he was going to win, so he didn't even try. His campaign was laughable.

 

[bshole]

God I hope so. He is god's gift to Democrats.

I wouldn't wish that if I were you. I am completely and utterly shocked that he is still alive and doing better than ever this late in the game.

God's gift to the Democrats would be Ben Carson. If he won, Clinton would be a shoo-in.

 

[OrByte]

Trump getting the nomination would make for an unbearable election season.

truly unbearable


Too many GOP candidates spread the voter interest too thin. No other candidate had any real opportunity to gain momentum. then again I wonder if it ever truly mattered, Trump treats them all like Gnats regardless and just swats them away. The more negative it gets the more strong his position...it's amazing.

 

[Moonbeam]

Well...considering Trump is willing to contemplate tax increases to achieve spending cuts. He supports abortion with some exceptions and has gone so far as to defend funding Planned Parenthood. He has called for protective tariffs, a position heretical for Republicans, who are typically free traders. Although opposed to Obamacare, he has asserted how well that single-payer health care works in other countries. He could just be *GASP* a liberal!

From the first day Trump announced and the mannerisms I saw adopted, I saw a tidal wave of destruction headed Republican way. I was immensely pleased also by the fact that I saw in him a liberal. Sadly for me, I had to abandon the Trump ship when he came out for torture and bombing the shit out of people, and closing our to Muslims as well as deporting 12 million illegals. I can't support a person who is un-Americal as President. He blew it for me and because of those things I do not think he will win.

 

[Spungo]

Too many GOP candidates spread the voter interest too thin.

This is certainly true. If 8 guys are running, most people are not going to research all of their positions. The guy who is the most vocal about his positions is the one who gets the most support.

This is true for a lot of things in life. Radio personality Jim Norton has shared lots of really weird stories about trannies and prostitutes, and people love him because people understand him. He's not a mystery to anyone. Guys like Mitt Romney can't win elections because nobody knows what their ideas are. That's the problem with lying. If everything you say is a lie, it becomes very difficult to keep track of those lies, so an effective liar says as little as possible in order to keep their story straight. Trump might be a loud asshole, but he seems more real, if that makes any sense. I couldn't even tell you 1 thing Jeb Bush believes. I bet Jeb Bush couldn't tell you 1 thing Jeb Bush believes.

This reminds me of one of the studies okcupid did about attractiveness and number of messages received. Suppose there are 2 women. One of them is 7/10 in terms of looks, and everyone universally agrees she's a 7. The other woman gets an average of 6/10, but opinions are bimodal; some people rate her as a 1 or a 2, but a lot of people rate her as a 10. That woman with the bimodal distribution will receive significantly more messages even though her average attractiveness is lower. Winning is not a game of averages, but a game of getting rabid fans. People will write it on their calendar and make sure they vote if it's someone they strongly believe in. If someone is about 60% certain they want a candidate to win, they might not bother voting.

 

[Zor Prime]

This reminds me of one of the studies okcupid did about attractiveness and number of messages received. Suppose there are 2 women. One of them is 7/10 in terms of looks, and everyone universally agrees she's a 7. The other woman gets an average of 6/10, but opinions are bimodal; some people rate her as a 1 or a 2, but a lot of people rate her as a 10. That woman with the bimodal distribution will receive significantly more messages even though her average attractiveness is lower. Winning is not a game of averages, but a game of getting rabid fans. People will write it on their calendar and make sure they vote if it's someone they strongly believe in. If someone is about 60% certain they want a candidate to win, they might not bother voting.

This is sorta brilliant, you make a really good point I believe to be true.

There's a difference between someone who goes and votes but if work gets in the way or Little Jimmy needs picked up and nobody else can it's not going to be the end of the world if they don't get to go vote.

Rabid interest puts the mark on the calendar as you say and to hell with Little Jimmy, he can walk his ass home and to hell with work just about nothing is stopping this voter from completing a mission.

It might come down to the more passionate base. The one who muses and laughs or the other one that's downright angry and counting down the days to vote.