Netflix deathwatch.

[Red Squirrel]

I keep forgetting, now that I have a Wii U I don't have to wait till a proper Linux implementation happens. I should look at getting Netflix. In fact if I find myself using it a lot I can maybe cancel cable. I pay like 70 bucks for cable and hardly watch TV. It's nice to put the TV on when I'm eating or something but that's almost the only time I watch it. Other than movies.

 

[BUTCH1]

Quest for Fire is on Netflix right now...

I love Netflix, and agree it's a bargain. The only reason I have cable at all, is for my aunt; the $60 a month for BASIC digitial and remote and box is theft compared to the $15 I spend a month on Netflix.

The selection does stink at times, especially all the rip-off films like Transmorphers, but I've watched many movies and documentaries that were great, that I never would have seen otherwise. The four gems a month I find are worth the price by themselves.

Have to LOL when he gets his first BJ, he's like "WHAT...I be missin out on THIS!!"...

 

[jman19]

Mmm, I'm not sure about that.

A large part of television's appeal is not having to think about it. With Netflix, you have to search for what you want to watch in a piecemeal fashion. Yes, it has suggestions, queues, etc., but it's not as much of a no-brainer thing as TV. Sometimes when I get home from work, it's nice just to plop down in front of the television and surf until I find something mildly interesting (not as much fun anymore since I only get basic cable, hah!).

It's the same with car radio. I have access to just about every song on the planet through MOG on my iPhone, but half the time I just end up listening to the radio since the work is being done for me. It's nice not to have to think about it. I think Pandora is about as close as they've come to killing radio...select a type of music you want and it does the rest. So if Netflix had something like that, or something more on the IPTV range where you could more or less "flip channels", that'd be a huge hit, I think. Nothing I hate worse than coming home from work, flipping on the Scifi channel, and only having 6 hours of Ghost Hunters available...so Pandora for TV would be epic :thumbsup:

Surfing on TV is way, way worse than on Netflix. Fail.

 

[Bateluer]

In fact I think we will look back at late 2012 as the pinnacle of streaming television for at least the next five years. We are about to watch that market fragment as each content provider makes their own portal or service to maximize revenue, and the common providers like Hulu/Netflix will be a ghost of their former selves due to greed.

Its what Napster did to music industry all over again, except that content providers are determined to not allow Netflix to turned into the next iTunes.

Not sure if 2012 will be the pinnacle of streaming, but I see your point here. Big Content and the TelCos will try everything they can to kill common portals like NetFlix in favor of their own content portals, which would only be under their $100/month plans. :/

Then, they'll wonder why piracy skyrocketed again.

 

[SSSnail]

You, are an moran, sir.

 

[poofyhairguy]

Not sure if 2012 will be the pinnacle of streaming, but I see your point here. Big Content and the TelCos will try everything they can to kill common portals like NetFlix in favor of their own content portals, which would only be under their $100/month plans. :/

Then, they'll wonder why piracy skyrocketed again.

It will get worse before it gets better.

 

[Phoenix86]

Netflix could easily add a Random button.

The basically added this with their suggestion function, I think it's called Max or something.

 

[midwestfisherman]

 

[Printer Bandit]

 

[techs]

^^That is so me.

 

[PingSpike]

I don't understand why there are all these articles about how netflix is going to die. The articles always show they are in decent shape financially and that they still have the mail business and are investing towards the future but have a headline about how fucked they are. Sure, they may get cut out of the loop eventually but it would take a long time for them to actually die out. But to hear the media tell it they have one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel. Yet there are companies that some how limp along in a zombie state seemingly forever or never made any money to begin with that they either never talk about or actually blow their wad over them. It has gotten so ridiculous that I'm starting to think some one is paying media organizations to try and put the stink of death on them.

 

[PingSpike]

They must of just added it because I had to order the DVD from amazon.

I actually was looking for this just last week so I think you're right about it just being added.

I agree with your general point about old movies on netflix. I want 80s and 90s stuff on there. They keep adding new episodes of crap reality shows off of cable. I came onto netflix to escape that crap, not to watch it a different way. I know everyone has different wants but at the price netflix charges (not much) I want more old stuff, more British shows and more documentaries. At $8 a month I'm really just looking for full back catalog but it isn't there, its sporadic bits and pieces. I don't want any new reality TV shows. Time and time again though I go to look up an old show or movie and its not on there, only available on disk. :/

I don't want any new SyFy channel shattastic original rip off movies. I appreciate the new movies I guess, except about 75% of the ones I want to watch I already saw in the theater or ended up renting before they showed up on netflix. For me, that part just isn't working but that's not really what I showed up for either. I like their original series and I think they'll have to do more of that to remain a big player in this market.

 

[Wyndru]

I wonder if companies that sell devices that are netflix capable (have a netflix streaming app specifically created for them) have to pay royalties or some kind kind of licensing? Or does netflix do it for free so it can gain subs?

 

[Ketchup]

I wonder if companies that sell devices that are netflix capable (have a netflix streaming app specifically created for them) have to pay royalties or some kind kind of licensing? Or does netflix do it for free so it can gain subs?

If anything I think it would be the other way around (Netflix pays to have their software added to devices).

 

[poofyhairguy]

I don't understand why there are all these articles about how netflix is going to die. The articles always show they are in decent shape financially and that they still have the mail business and are investing towards the future but have a headline about how fucked they are. Sure, they may get cut out of the loop eventually but it would take a long time for them to actually die out. But to hear the media tell it they have one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel. Yet there are companies that some how limp along in a zombie state seemingly forever or never made any money to begin with that they either never talk about or actually blow their wad over them. It has gotten so ridiculous that I'm starting to think some one is paying media organizations to try and put the stink of death on them.

Netflix's doom is tied to two things:

1. Its current success is due to streaming content. The DVD business got slayed by Redbox.

2. The content Netflix streams is not its own, so if the business model gets too successful these content providers will pull the content to cut out Netflix for maximum profits.


Netflix/Hulu are a classic catch-22. The goal was to get more subscribers and revenue, but at a certain point you get so big that you make the actual content providers jealous of your success (when previously they were ignoring you) and they stop providing you content to try and take some of that success for themselves.

Hence why Netflix is DESPERATE to create its own content like House of Cards. They need to take the momentum from their current success up the distribution chain, and compete directly with content producers to survive. When all the popular recent shows are no longer on Netflix, they need a catalog of their own stuff you will pay to keep access to.

Hulu is the same way- it is being sold because its success killed it. Yahoo might buy the shell because they are desperate idiots, but the content that made Hulu popular is about to get locked behind multiple different paywalls.

 

[Golgatha]

I think the CW has it right. Put it on TV for the people that "must watch it now". Then put it Online for people to watch back episodes.

http://www.cwtv.com/shows/

The Online watching has commercials too, so there is even more revenue from advertising. The website doesn't force you to create a login or anything stupid like that either.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I think the CW has it right. Put it on TV for the people that "must watch it now". Then put it Online for people to watch back episodes.

That was the old thinking- use the web to drive your primary product on TV on your terms.

The problem with that thinking is consumers can no longer be bothered to put their lives on hold and plunk down in front of the old-school TV when the episode airs. So they DVR it and watch later, and when they do get around to watching it they fast forward through commercials. This process is killing the advertising revenue model for television programs that are not live (American Idol, sports, etc.) and over time will change the entire industry.

The future is that consumers want the content on all of their platforms (smartphone, tablet, even old TV) and they want it now. So you get them to pay you directly for a subscription, and let them consume the content however they please.

HBO Go is the model for the future:

http://theslanted.com/2013/03/3349/...e-available-on-hbo-go-simultaneously-with-tv/

The issue for the industry is that few content providers have the consumer loyalty or content of HBO. So it will be rough times as other providers try and fail to thrive outside of Netflix/Hulu.

 

[SSSnail]

Netflix's doom is tied to two things:

1. Its current success is due to streaming content. The DVD business got slayed by Redbox.

2. The content Netflix streams is not its own, so if the business model gets too successful these content providers will pull the content to cut out Netflix for maximum profits.


Netflix/Hulu are a classic catch-22. The goal was to get more subscribers and revenue, but at a certain point you get so big that you make the actual content providers jealous of your success (when previously they were ignoring you) and they stop providing you content to try and take some of that success for themselves.

Hence why Netflix is DESPERATE to create its own content like House of Cards. They need to take the momentum from their current success up the distribution chain, and compete directly with content producers to survive. When all the popular recent shows are no longer on Netflix, they need a catalog of their own stuff you will pay to keep access to.

Hulu is the same way- it is being sold because its success killed it. Yahoo might buy the shell because they are desperate idiots, but the content that made Hulu popular is about to get locked behind multiple different paywalls.

You must not have been following Netflix and the contents providers and their battles the past few years... LOL is all I really want to say.

I've been trading NFLX since 2010, and reality is far from what you think it is. HULU is not NFLX, not even close.

 

[PingSpike]

Netflix's doom is tied to two things:

1. Its current success is due to streaming content. The DVD business got slayed by Redbox.

2. The content Netflix streams is not its own, so if the business model gets too successful these content providers will pull the content to cut out Netflix for maximum profits.


Netflix/Hulu are a classic catch-22. The goal was to get more subscribers and revenue, but at a certain point you get so big that you make the actual content providers jealous of your success (when previously they were ignoring you) and they stop providing you content to try and take some of that success for themselves.

Hence why Netflix is DESPERATE to create its own content like House of Cards. They need to take the momentum from their current success up the distribution chain, and compete directly with content producers to survive. When all the popular recent shows are no longer on Netflix, they need a catalog of their own stuff you will pay to keep access to.

Hulu is the same way- it is being sold because its success killed it. Yahoo might buy the shell because they are desperate idiots, but the content that made Hulu popular is about to get locked behind multiple different paywalls.

I agree with much of your general thinking on the matter, I'm just not sure I think the situation is dire as you make it out to be. I really don't think redbox has slain the DVD business myself, taken a piece of it I'm sure but that business has always had a lot of players in it. That said, I doubt the DVD business is going to grow in the future. Netflix might end up a bit player but I think there is room for them in some capacity.

HBO Go content is pretty great, I use it a lot. Is it the future? Not the immediate future. From what I read everyone seems to want HBO Go as a standalone...and they all want to pay the netflix price for it. HBO costs $18/mo added to cable bill right now. If people think they're getting all the content on it for less than that they're dreaming. And HBO has to many commitments to its partners in the existing cable/sat business to risk upsetting them by going it alone to appease some whiners on the internet that apparently would be willing to pay low monthly fees for premium original content. This isn't a popular opinion but I think HBO has correctly recognized that selling direct online only is not a smart business move right now.

Which sort of brings me back to netflix. Everyone shit a brick when they raised their prices and at the same time complains they don't have enough of anything to watch. Frankly, that content costs them money to license and if they want to play hardball on price they have to be willing to walk away from content you might have wanted to see. I feel like there is an answer here, maybe some sort of price tiers or categories that you can pick to have available on your account for different prices. I'm sure they've at least thought about it though.

As an aside, if you think netflix's streaming website is bad and has crappy navigation you should try HBO Go's. Even if netflix forced you to manually google a direct link to every one of their titles it would still be better because at least netflix has video quality controls and actually has enough bandwidth to serve their video with locking up all the time. Its gotten slightly better from the unusable state it was in at first launch but I still witness at least two or three freeze ups during a movie.

 

[poofyhairguy]

You must not have been following Netflix and the contents providers and their battles the past few years... LOL is all I really want to say.

Actually I have been following very closely. Netflix is losing contracts for mainstream content, and now their big priority is not keeping these contracts but producing their own content so people will keep paying.

The slide started when Netflix lost Stars:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/ent...z-its-most-valuable-source-of-new-movies.html

And now continues when it recently lost Viacom's content:

http://www.inquisitr.com/679042/via...l-likely-take-away-important-toddler-viewers/

But don't listen to me, here is what they have to say about it:

Netflix wants to spend up to 15 percent of its entire licensing budget on the production of original content within the next few years, according to Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos, who said Thursday at the Nomura 3rd Annual U.S. Media & Telecom Summit in New York that the company is going to keep growing its original output over the next few years, with the goal of roughly doubling the number of titles within the next 18 months....

Sarandos said that slate deals like the previous agreement with Viacom, which force Netflix to buy a wide breadth of content, often simply aren’t worth the money, especially if the same content is available elsewhere as well. “We value that content for sure. We just disagreed on the value of the content,” he said.

http://paidcontent.org/2013/05/30/n...-15-percent-of-its-content-cash-on-originals/

Pretty obvious Netflix sees the writing on the wall:

They are not going to be able to afford mainstream content from other providers soon, so they either make their own content or become a has-been.

I've been trading NFLX since 2010, and reality is far from what you think it is. HULU is not NFLX, not even close.

You are correct Hulu is not Netflix. Hulu was a joint deal between the content providers themselves. Netflix is its own thing.

My point is that if content providers can't play nice with EACH OTHER in a joint Hulu venture, what makes anyone think they will play nice with outsider Netflix long-term?

The TV industry does not want Netflix to turn into iTunes. They will put consumers through a lot of pain to keep Netflix caged. Greed always wins.

 

[Kaido]

Surfing on TV is way, way worse than on Netflix. Fail.

Yes and no. The reason why TV works is because surfing is a decision-free activity. Surfing Netflix involves the choice of clicking on something. It sounds trivial, but it's the same reason car radio still exists when there's Spotify, MOG, MP3's, etc. - the major draw of radio is that it's so accessible, just flip the channel until you find something you like. Same with television. When Netflix offers some sort of IPTV feature like that, where you can just flip through stuff, I think even more people will switch over.

 

[poofyhairguy]

HBO Go content is pretty great, I use it a lot. Is it the future? Not the immediate future.

I agree with that. It will take a while for the cable industry to wind down, and for now premium content holders like ESPN and HBO can make more within the cable structure than outside of it. What HBO has done is set itself up so that the second its more profitable selling directly to consumers they have the distribution method in place with a brand tied to it.

But for the major networks (aka the ones on OTA), cable companies are less of a consideration. The bigger consideration is maximizing the value of their content, which means offering it under your brand's banner rather than a Netflix or a Hulu.

If people think they're getting all the content on it for less than that they're dreaming.

That is my main point. Netflix today is a mirage. The content we have been getting is worth more than $8 a month. The only reason Netflix is staying that cheap today is because when they first made their contracts no one believed in internet distribution so they gave it away to Netflix for peanuts. Now as each one of those contracts come up for renewal, content providers will ask for more or might even refuse to sell syndication rights to certain programs.

Netflix's hope for the future is to take the current momentum and get the current user base hooked on their original content before everyone bails due to lack of mainstream content.

I feel like there is an answer here, maybe some sort of price tiers or categories that you can pick to have available on your account for different prices.

A few problems with that:

1. A tiered Netflix sounds great for consumers but is still too close to an iTunes for the industry. I could see some providers denying certain content to Netflix at ANY price to not lose control of distribution.

2. Netflix set the expectation that you can stream the best content in the world for $8. If Netflix was to raise the price to what it needs to be to keep mainstream content going forward, many would cancel and complain that Netflix was "being greedy."

Netflix as it is has to die and a move expensive system with lower user expectations needs to take its place for mainstream content. They set the bar too high for themselves.

3. Content providers can't agree on how much their content is worth. That is why Hulu is dying- they all GREATLY overvalue their content because they expect TV revenues with online distribution and that just isn't going to happen. It is going to take the industry cratering some until they accept that paying per episode $4 or paying for their service ON TOP of cable isn't going to fly.

Hence why it will get worse before its better. Content providers have to be put in their place by the market, and Netflix is caught in the middle of that struggle.

 

[techs]

I don't think Netflix is terribly worried about some of the content they lost.

The other providers either had to pay more than Netflix or make less profit. And that gives Netflix the ability to have the largest amount of programming by far of any of the streaming services.

And, of course, Netflix can always set up a second tier for things that cost more, if they choose.

It's not like one competitor is getting all the Netlix refugees. Its a few content providers taking advantage of second tier services need for "unique" content. It's at most a few fast bucks. But the limited content on second tier providers means most people won't stick around. So, eventually, the content will be once more provided to Netflix.

 

[SSSnail]

Ask the content providers that came back to Netflix with even sweeter deals after they realized that by cutting ties to Netflix was a bad idea how they feel...

I'm a man of few words, I don't like to type, especially on a phone, so excuse my brevity. Anyone of these idiotic ”analysts” can put out a fluff piece for you to link to, and I've beaten most of them in the last few years, except for the few that see things my way. Anyways, NFLX will be the uniter of all things streaming, take that to the bank.

 

[poofyhairguy]

I don't think Netflix is terribly worried about some of the content they lost.

Agreed, because they have a plan to be a content provider.

The other providers either had to pay more than Netflix or make less profit.

Or content providers can roll-their-own service.

And that gives Netflix the ability to have the largest amount of programming by far of any of the streaming services.

If Netflix has the "most" content but none of it is mainstream many won't subscribe to Netflix anymore.

It's not like one competitor is getting all the Netlix refugees.

There won't be a single large competitor to Netflix. Instead we will watch as each media empire (the Disney's, the Warners, the Comcasts) creates their own version of Netflix with just their content. Or they will sublease it out to a provider like Amazon (to do the backend) all under the branding of the content provider.

The reason why Netflix in its current form will die is because the content providers don't want an outsider to have that much control and leverage over distribution. They would rather offer their content through and inferior distribution methods rather than make the mistake the music industry made with iTunes, or that the book industry made with Amazon.

So, eventually, the content will be once more provided to Netflix.

Sure. MAYBE if they survive long enough, after the industry has its "wake up call," then MAYBE they get back in the game (if the some of the content provider's individual portals fail). But that is like 10 year down the road so who knows.


The real issue isn't Netflix. The real issue is that content providers expect to make the same amount of money distributing online they make distributing on TV (or close to it). That simply isn't reality.

What will happen to TV is the same disparity that is happening to journalism once the reality hits- leaner and more efficient studios producing niche content.

If Netflix can survive the industry reality check maybe they can get the content back, but I think by then Netflix will be replaced by a service that is backed by the providers themselves (like a Hulu 2.0).