Need probability help!

[Stojakapimp]

Ok, so I went to this get together last night and played this dice game called Bunco with a bunch of other people. If you don't know the game, there are 4 people at a table, there are different rounds, and in each round you are trying to roll a certain number with 3 dice. So let's say that in a certain round you are trying to roll 2's, so you only get points by rolling 2's. Now in the game, there is a thing called a Bunco, which in our example, would be rolling three 2's.

Now you only get a Bunco if it's 3 of a kind on the number you are going for. So if we are going for 2's but I roll three 4's, that's not a Bunco.

Anyways, after playing 30 round (going through each number 5 times), we tallied up the scores and one of the kids had 9 Bunco's altogether. I only had 1. The second most was only 4. So this got me suspicious. I tried figuring out the probability of him getting 9 Bunco's out of 30 rounds, but I'm not too good at statistics.

So do any of you know how to do this? I believe the probability of rolling 3 same number in one roll is 1 out of 6^3, but how do you take into account that it has to be the exact number you are going for? And then doing that 9 times?

 

[PookyBoy]

probably better response here http://www.physicsforums.com

 

[fyleow]

Originally posted by: Stojakapimp
Ok, so I went to this get together last night and played this dice game called Bunco with a bunch of other people. If you don't know the game, there are 4 people at a table, there are different rounds, and in each round you are trying to roll a certain number with 3 dice. So let's say that in a certain round you are trying to roll 2's, so you only get points by rolling 2's. Now in the game, there is a thing called a Bunco, which in our example, would be rolling three 2's.

Now you only get a Bunco if it's 3 of a kind on the number you are going for. So if we are going for 2's but I roll three 4's, that's not a Bunco.

Anyways, after playing 30 round (going through each number 5 times), we tallied up the scores and one of the kids had 9 Bunco's altogether. I only had 1. The second most was only 4. So this got me suspicious. I tried figuring out the probability of him getting 9 Bunco's out of 30 rounds, but I'm not too good at statistics.

So do any of you know how to do this? I believe the probability of rolling 3 same number in one roll is 1 out of 6^3, but how do you take into account that it has to be the exact number you are going for? And then doing that 9 times?

The probability of getting the same number on 3 dice is 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 or 4.6%

 

[Stojakapimp]

Originally posted by: fyleow


The probability of getting the same number on 3 dice is 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 or 4.6%

Yeah, i understand how that is the probability for rolling the same number on 3 dice, but what about to get that 9 times? You would just multiply by 9 right? so it would be 9*6^3? But then you have to take into account that a bunco only occurs for certain numbers...not just for any time you get 3 of a kind. So the chance of getting a bunco is 1/6.

So then is it 6*9*6^3?