SP33Demon
Lifer
Well, on the flipside 1/7 of Trump Corporation's profits come from rentals ($71 in profit a year). They didn't get to over twice the profit margin of Apple by investing in markets that are that high of risk. Also, you are comparing the top Index fund with barriers to entry, not a typical one. I could also quote the top rental markets in the country which I'm sure are making more than 42% when you combine tax breaks + property value increases + rental income.and better option really depends on what type of life you are looking for.
Certainly, some places are much, much better than others (even within DC region, some places are as bad or worse as any place in the US), so real estate is a far more risky venture even where it is considered hot.
The potential upside is greater or, well....maybe it isn't? I think Buffet is up something like 42% after 6 years with his boring Index fund in that bet against the hedge fund managers? Comparing the two and subtracting all the hassles involved with rental property makes that the clear winner in my book.
Lots of potential ups for sure, but so much luck, risk, and factors well beyond your control--a hot neighborhood may not be hot for long, and there's nothing you can do about that. Tying a very large illiquid pile of money into something influenced by several factors that you can not ostensibly control....well, there's the risk. And assuming neighborhood dynamics over several years is not an issue, you still need to rely on a stable of proper tenants over that time. it only takes one bad one to put you in the poor house.
At least with index funds, the "poor tenants" get pushed aside and their little share of your big shares gets replaced, predictably, by better tenants.
I also think you're overstating the risk in markets with limited supply like the dc area. Studies show that by 2023 our area will have a shortage of 226,000. Condos near a metro station will be gold in less than 10 years.
http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/blog/2015/07/think-its-bad-now-greater-washington-housing.html