NBA Playoffs 2024

[manly]

The actual playoffs begin on Saturday, but the play-in games start tonight. There's a fair chance that the Dubs will face the Lakers on Friday, with the loser's season ending.

Although it's impossible to predict, this shapes up to be the toughest first round in the Western conference ever. Depending on who the 7th & 8th seeds are, every series could plausibly go 6 games. Minnesota really fucked up by losing their finale and drawing the Suns.

Meanwhile, it's championship or bust for the Knicks Celtics.

(Poll includes current odds from FanDuel)

Preseason odds:

2023-24 NBA Preseason Odds | Basketball-Reference.com

Checkout the Preseason Odds for the 2023-24 NBA season and more on Basketball-Reference.com

www.basketball-reference.com

 

[thestrangebrew1]

Rooting for my Dubs but realistically I don't see them getting past the Lakers (gross) on Friday (if they win tonight). Voted for Denver as a repeat, Celtics will choke again.

Edited to add: I almost never pay attention to NBA until playoffs start so I'm not knowledgeable lol.

 

[manly]

Rooting for my Dubs but realistically I don't see them getting past the Lakers (gross) on Friday (if they win tonight). Voted for Denver as a repeat, Celtics will choke again.

Edited to add: I almost never pay attention to NBA until playoffs start so I'm not knowledgeable lol.

Dubs are 27-12 since January 30th; only the Celtics have won more games over that time span. Most notably, the defense has played well these past couple months. Now I wasn't buying it a year ago when people were hyping up the Dubs and Lakers playoffs chances (both teams did reasonably well). The road is even tougher this time around, and I don't expect the Lakers to win a playoff series, IF they even get in that is. TBH there isn't much separating #4 from #10, but the problem is that the Dubs have to do more work than anybody else just to qualify for the playoffs, much less advance.

Because of relatively good health, I like the Dubs chances (roughly a coin-flip) if they make it to Friday.

I voted for the Nuggets, more out of rooting interest as I suck at predictions (OKC is too young and Minny cannot be trusted). The Celtics are a superteam, but they still live and die by the 3-ball. My honest expectation is that they've "choked" enough the past X years that they'll finally get over the hump this time.

Not paying attention to regular season NBA doesn't make you less knowledgeable than others. FFS the Bucks still have the fourth best odds to win the chip, and Giannis has a calf injury lol.

 

[thestrangebrew1]

Well so much for the Dubs lol. Oh well. I guess I'll be rooting for the Kings this post-season as the 2nd local team in my area. I was only able to catch the 2nd half because my council meeting went long, but Klay was literally non-existent yesterday. 0 pts, 0-10, 0-6 3-pt. Holy cow!

 

[Captante]

Rooting for the Knicks. (not a poll option?)

Voted for the Celtics.

 

[pete6032]

Rooting for the Knicks. (not a poll option?)

Voted for the Celtics.

Apparently your only options are voting for the 1, 2, 4, 5 seed from the West, or the 1, 3, or 7 seed in the East.

 

[manly]

Well so much for the Dubs lol. Oh well. I guess I'll be rooting for the Kings this post-season as the 2nd local team in my area. I was only able to catch the 2nd half because my council meeting went long, but Klay was literally non-existent yesterday. 0 pts, 0-10, 0-6 3-pt. Holy cow!

I'm not a Kings fan, but they're a fun team and I'll root for them on Friday. Kings vs OKC could possibly even be a good series, unlike most 1 vs 8 match-ups.
Sucked to see Zion play arguably his pro best game ever and suffer an injury with just 3 minutes remaining, after he had tied the game.

Klay turned down 2 years for $48M total, and I really don't think the Dubs should increase the offer. They massively overpaid him the last time, so he should be willing to give the team a discount unless all he cares about is money. Obviously the Dubs shouldn't just "run it back" again as-is, but with their current payroll, it's gonna be pretty hard to reload on the fly.

Apparently your only options are voting for the 1, 2, 4, 5 seed from the West, or the 1, 3, or 7 seed in the East.

The poll has the 7 teams with the top odds from FanDuel. I had to draw the line somewhere and the Knicks don't even appear until 10th. The Knicks reward for securing the #2 seed on the final day of the season is a likely first round date with the Sixers. If so, they'll probably be small underdogs (my guess would be +170 series odds).

The Other option is available in the poll, and you can also reply with whoever your long shot pick or rooting interest is.

From a value standpoint, I think Sixers +1600 and Suns +1900 are two teams that could make some noise (more so the Sixers in the weak East). The Suns have been an enigma all season, but I still expect KD to bring it.

Edit:
Heat handling biz so far. If they win tonight, the Knicks should be a very small series favorite in round 1.

 

[pete6032]

The Knicks reward for securing the #2 seed on the final day of the season is a likely first round date with the Sixers.

I don't follow the Eastern Conference. What's the story with the Knicks being the two seed but having such low odds?

 

[manly]

I don't follow the Eastern Conference. What's the story with the Knicks being the two seed but having such low odds?

Several factors. First, besides the Celtics, all of the good teams are in the Western conference. It's been that way for a long time, but this is arguably the toughest WC playoffs bracket ever. Right now, I don't consider the Bucks a good team although they're usually perceived that way (I was not excited by the preseason trade for Damian Lillard). Their record is sub .500 in half a season under new head coach Doc Rivers, and superstar Giannis is injured and not expected to play in game 1.

In the preseason, the Knicks were projected to be slightly above average. So they pretty much maxed out their ceiling, driven by a phenomenal season by PG Jalen Brunson. Brunson seemingly maxed out his individual ceiling in his second year in NY, but small guards usually don't exert their will deep in the playoffs. For example, although the Dubs won 4 chips in the past decade, Steph was MVP just once in 2022. And although Steph is a prolific scorer, he's not a ball-dominant guard. You'd have to go back to 2007 when Tony Parker won Finals MVP; that award usually goes to athletic wings or big men.

The Knicks have actually dealt with a lot of key injuries, and one of their top players is out for the season (Julius Randle). So they've been winning games with gritty role players, but that type of formula isn't going to endure for the playoffs.

Finally the Sixers are a top-3 team in the East, but fell down the standings when reigning MVP Joel Embiid suffered a knee injury. He's back now, and IF his knees hold up, they aren't your typical 7th seed. The Sixers rallied to win earlier, and opened as modest -130 favorites over the Knicks. That's actually closer than I expected. I actually feel ESPN is hyping up the Sixers TOO much right now, but that's because nobody else in the East can challenge the Celtics.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Dallas at +1700 is really tempting. Third best record in the league since the new year, Doncic is coming off one of the greatest years in NBA history, Irving finally gives a crap again for the first time since 2016, and Lively and Gafford is an awesome center rotation. They easily look like the scariest darkhorse since the 2011 Mavs and if Jamal Murray's nagging injuries become any problem whatsoever I could see them taking Denver out in the WCF. If Murray can stay healthy Denver probably repeats though.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Right now, I don't consider the Bucks a good team although they're usually perceived that way (I was not excited by the preseason trade for Damian Lillard). Their record is sub .500 in half a season under new head coach Doc Rivers, and superstar Giannis is injured and not expected to play in game 1.

God I don't know how the hell Doc Rivers keeps getting work. About the only good coaching job he ever did was get the gutted 2000 Magic to .500 and he gets primo coaching jobs only to underachieve in every one (except Boston where he had Thibodeau). As a Spurs fan scary to think the Spurs were literally one game from firing Pop and replacing him with Doc in the 1999 season.

 

[purbeast0]

There's a fair chance that the Dubs will face the Lakers on Friday, with the loser's season ending.

Well this didn't age very well lol.

I pick the Nuggets to take it all. They just have the best all around roster IMO and are healthy.

I think the 6ers can go kinda deep too. They were dominating until Embiid got hurt and that is when their record started to go downhill quickly. But, Embiid's health is also a big question - can he stay healthy?

 

[manly]

God I don't know how the hell Doc Rivers keeps getting work. About the only good coaching job he ever did was get the gutted 2000 Magic to .500 and he gets primo coaching jobs only to underachieve in every one (except Boston where he had Thibodeau). As a Spurs fan scary to think the Spurs were literally one game from firing Pop and replacing him with Doc in the 1999 season.

What's crazy is the Bucks fired their new HC after half a season of .700+ ball (despite a huge regression on defense).
Doc is a 2-time CoY winner lol. People still don't realize he had a superteam before KG got hurt, and was never the same. I like Rivers but his career body of work speaks for itself. Rivers has a lot of street cred for some weird reason; I can't think of any other HC that is as overrated. There's Kentucky Arkansas' John Calipari, but college hoops is very different. IMO Calipari gets less out of his talent than just about any head coach in sports.

Doc said he even told the Bucks front office they were crazy to hire him mid-season as HC, and their answer was, "too late, we already dismissed Griffin."

I love Doncic, but I don't think the Mavs are scary. But like anyone else besides the Nuggets, they just have to prove me wrong. Many of these first round series are coin flips, and even the Lakers are getting some consideration as large underdogs.

Well this didn't age very well lol.

I pick the Nuggets to take it all. They just have the best all around roster IMO and are healthy.

I think the 6ers can go kinda deep too. They were dominating until Embiid got hurt and that is when their record started to go downhill quickly. But, Embiid's health is also a big question - can he stay healthy?

My predictions age like warm milk. (Probabilistically, a Lakers/Dubs game tomorrow was only about 30%. That's what I meant by a "fair" chance.)

Embiid played heavy minutes last night, and I doubt he feels good right now. No idea if the kneeS will hold up, but he looked sharp in the 4th quarter. Nic Batum had to go supernova last night for them to steal a W, so I don't know if the Sixers have enough roster firepower overall. It's more or less the same gang that's lost in the 2nd round year after year, with a head coaching upgrade.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I love Doncic, but I don't think the Mavs are scary. But like anyone else besides the Nuggets, they just have to prove me wrong.

I think they're scary as hell. We saw Luka take a worse supporting cast and crush a 64 win Suns team. He has a LeBron like game that translates extremely well to the playoffs and he is just nasty in elimination games. And Kyrie is low-key having a huge season too without any of the distractions we saw in Boston and Brooklyn. If I'm Denver I'm glad I got the #2 seed and get to avoid a second round matchup with them and will only have to go through one of OKC/Dallas in a possible title run this year. I don't think Denver will have much of a margin of error in a possible matchup with Dallas and if Murray misses any games I'm taking the Mavs in the series.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I voted with my feels (76ers).

 

[pete6032]

Dallas at +1700 is really tempting. Third best record in the league since the new year, Doncic is coming off one of the greatest years in NBA history, Irving finally gives a crap again for the first time since 2016, and Lively and Gafford is an awesome center rotation. They easily look like the scariest darkhorse since the 2011 Mavs and if Jamal Murray's nagging injuries become any problem whatsoever I could see them taking Denver out in the WCF. If Murray can stay healthy Denver probably repeats though.

Historically speaking, betting on anyone other than the 1 or 2 seed is a very low percentage result.

NBA Champions by Playoff Seed

This is the summary of NBA Champions grouped by the Playoff seed they had that year. How many times teams with each seed won and lost the NBA Finals and the detail of champions one by one sorted by seed.

www.landofbasketball.com

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Historically speaking, betting on anyone other than the 1 or 2 seed is a very low percentage result.

NBA Champions by Playoff Seed

This is the summary of NBA Champions grouped by the Playoff seed they had that year. How many times teams with each seed won and lost the NBA Finals and the detail of champions one by one sorted by seed.

www.landofbasketball.com

They weren't really the same team in 2023 that they are in 2024. Gafford and Washington are so much better of fits than Grant Williams was. And Doncic is probably the most unguardable player in the league right now. Off the top of my head the Rockets won as the 5 seed in 1995, Lakers as 3 or 4 seed in 2002, Spurs as 3 seed in 2007, and Dallas as 3 seed in 2011, so it happens. And the west is just brutal this year, loaded with high end teams. +1700 even with Dallas having a really difficult first round matchup seems to hugely underestimate how good that team is IMO. Can't believe they're beneath the Bucks and Sixers, that's ludicrous.

 

[manly]

Historically speaking, betting on anyone other than the 1 or 2 seed is a very low percentage result.

NBA Champions by Playoff Seed

This is the summary of NBA Champions grouped by the Playoff seed they had that year. How many times teams with each seed won and lost the NBA Finals and the detail of champions one by one sorted by seed.

www.landofbasketball.com

Although true, there appears to be more parity in the Western conference playoffs than ever before. The Nuggets are the consensus pick to get out of the West, but it's almost a murderer's row of good teams to get past. Jamal Murray recently came back from injury, and his health still looms as a big question mark. IF the Nuggets repeat as champs, they probably won't be rolling through multiple opponents like they did a year ago.

Both the 2022 and 2021 champs were 3 seeds; and last year's EC champs were #8.
The #7 Sixers now have the proverbial "puncher's chance" of making a deep run.

Also, the question isn't precisely whether you think the Mavs will win the championship (they won't). The question is whether you think they are better than +1700 to do so. Personally I don't think the Mavs are being "disrespected." The odds between +1400 and +1700 are pretty much equivalent (i.e. the almost contenders behind the two juggernauts).

The Bucks at +1500 is a terrible bet, but it also reflects the bracket in the EC.

 

[pete6032]

Why are games being spread 3 days apart in some cases? We don't need first round series going 20 days long.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Why are games being spread 3 days apart in some cases? We don't need first round series going 20 days long.

First round is always like that since there are so many games.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Pretty sad watching Embiid never able to stay healthy since he's such a unique player able to score in the post like Hakeem, hit the midrange like Ewing, and shoot the three like Sam Perkins. With that said I'm going for the Knicks in the series and in the East. Would love to see a Nuggets/Knicks, Mavs/Knicks, or Thunder/Knicks Finals.

 

[manly]

Why are games being spread 3 days apart in some cases? We don't need first round series going 20 days long.

Another reason the games are spread out is so that the players can adequately recover, and perform their best. It's still a little less rest than soccer players get, and although the sports are very different, there's tons of running and exertion in both sports.

It's fairly well established that back-to-back games in the regular season are not good for the product.

Having said that, the overall pace of the NBA playoffs is too slow for my tastes. In most years, I ignore the first round completely and I wish they'd go back to the old best-of-5 format that had more first round upsets.

 

[manly]

The home teams go 8-0 this weekend, although a couple of those were small upsets. OKC-NOP was the best contest, despite Zion's absence.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

ROFL from the Philly call of Game 2

Watch 3tnsno | Streamable

Watch this video on Streamable.

streamable.com

 

[manly]

I know that the local announcers are paid to be homers, but it's often cringe-worthy listening to them call games. A dude like Mark Jackson is bad at commentating in his own way, but at least he's not shilling for either side. Years ago, I don't remember Chick Hearn being so blatantly biased just because he's a Lakers fan and lead announcer. But obviously they don't make 'em like Chick or Vin Scully anymore.

And how the hell did the Nuggets challenge the foul on D'Lo (he was hit in the face), and win the challenge? I tend to think that the Lakers have to blame themselves for blowing a 20 point lead (I actually turned the game off at that point!). But it does suck when the refs fuck shit up; the 2 minute report on the end of the Knicks game is pretty gross.

Home teams are currently 11-0 in the playoffs. Suns and Pacers are trying to get on the board for the visiting teams.

Edit:
LOL Luka is now a stopper:

Luka leads way with defense as Mavs even series

Luka Doncic spearheaded the Mavericks' smothering defensive effort against the Clippers as Dallas evened the first-round series at one game apiece.

www.espn.com