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My understanding of the motivation behind NV's Fermi and future product developments

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I am done adressing you becuase you obviosuly don't get bussiness.

Its a wasted effort. Yes BTW ATI/AMD did go after nvidias weakest link. chipsets. the one last high volume vestiage they had left.

But you have the blinder on when it comes to this.

This is a 6 year plan they are executing. BTW they are doing a bang up job to.


proactive mind?

You make it sounds like AMD want to kill off a market with a single chip. Unfortunately, that is not proactive mind. Who with the right mind will try to combine a market by using one chip? If you think AMD's fusion is going to kill anything, it is going to be itself.

Fusion is a new type of CPU, at best it will stay in the market, but can't kill a market. Let say there are 3 markets only. A rich, B mid, and C low. If a single chip can be used in A, B, and C, then this chip must be cheap and powerful at the same time. What does it mean? Market B and C will buy the chip and won't buy another one for years to come. Profit? To customer yes, big time. For the manufacturer? Short term yes, but will quickly dies out.

The definition of proactive is to create new markets. Nvidia opened the professional graphics as well as GPGPU, the high end computing with GPU at the supercomputing segment with tesla at the top end, tegra at the mobile segment, and ION to the mini PC segment. Those are all new markets for a GPU company. Harvesting those will make money until opponent steps in, which will saturate overtime.

Back to Fusion. It must create its own market, or it won't go far. It will eventually create a segment on the mini PC/notebook market if it is done right, which is what AMD needs to survive.

People with reactive mind will believe AMD will eventually kill off everything else that ever created because of the success of cypress. However, cypress' glory has long pass due and if they don't come up with something great again. Otherwise, they will lose whatever they have gained with cypress. Nvidia believed they are save with the 2xx series and believed that AMD is far away until they were hit by the cypress. In six months time Nvidia suffers huge hit in the discrete video card market until they finally come back with a decent card GTX460 to stop bleeding uncontrollably. But that is far far away from a knock out. If AMD don't have some surprises under its sleeves, the market will bounce right back to before cypress.

Seriously, usually people don't kill people. We simply try to survive. The same thing happens to companies. AMD won't want Nvidia to die or else Intel will kill it shortly after. Nvidia won't kill AMD either as Intel will kill it too. What they do want is to kill Intel, which they really can't. As soon as AMD successfully sued Intel, others immediately follow, including Nvidia. They can be best friend forever if the discrete market is big enough to feed all the employees. Unfortunately, it isn't enough. In fact, AMD is good at CPU, but since its opponent is too strong, they brought ATI so they can cover more ground. Unfortunately, Nvidia is very strong at GPU and Intel is very strong at CPU, leaving AMD very small room to breath. Fusion was the first project right after AMD and ATI become one, but for 15 years I still don't see AMD make well use of its advantage of having 2 blades. They are not dump, it is just too funky hard to do it.

Intel is the only one who have the muscle to kill others, but laws prevents them to do so. By killing i don't mean making better goods, but to use connections and relations to stop its target from functioning. Otherwise, their opponent will not die just because of a good product. "Duh, they simply cost more to buy!"
 
How are the largest group of computer buyers ?

Home Office
Home PC
Office applications.

They are most likely 85% of the market IIRC. low end Enthuaist gamers might buy a $100 card rarely. They make up 8% of the market the other 5@ are the hardcore FPS gamers who have to have the latest and greatest "excluding enterprise CPU stuff"

As you can see the APU products work fine for 85% of applications based on that alone. A market where nvidia has done well with integrated. Well Intel and AMD just sucked that market dry with cheaper MB's and lower parts counts and better themral for notebooks, desktops, and netbooks and laptops.

Your not seeing the forest for the trees.

People say glenn Beck is a popular guy. This is simply not true. He has 2 million viewers.

dancing with the stars has 70 million.

do the math.

I wanna see jhh and hector ruiz on dwts. even though hector has been gone for a while now, do you think he could make it out of the building alive?
 
I am done adressing you becuase you obviosuly don't get bussiness.

Its a wasted effort. Yes BTW ATI/AMD did go after nvidias weakest link. chipsets. the one last high volume vestiage they had left.

But you have the blinder on when it comes to this.

This is a 6 year plan they are executing. BTW they are doing a bang up job to.
Well, let say OP is a Nvidia fanboy, but instead of simply believe what he believes, he take a simple step in verifying what he believes, and therefore found something interesting for himself, knowledge. A reactive person simply said "I know it all, and I told you so", while still live in its own little world.

Please don't pretend you know, as even people who worked in AMD don't. They believe in their work, but they don't know for sure. They would have go bankrupt long ago otherwise. Nvidia bite the bullet which use the Fermi design which many believe it simply won't work. Guess what, it does. Was it an OMG big bang? No, it simply works at a acceptable level, which is already an great success for something new. With Fermi they can milk it for several years. Look at how fast from "TOO BIG! TOO HOT!" to "its decent."

AMD have a lot to do. Making Fusion is like challenging 2 opponents at the same time. The question is how much resources AMD put into it. If they go all out and it isn't the greatest thing you can ever purchase, then they will go bye bye. Of course they didn't go all out. There are 6 core CPUs, 6xxx series video card as well as their revisions. Dream on brother, dream on.
 
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They have it. Belive it. Move on.

who has integrated graphics that can compete with a $150 video card right now? or even a $30 video card for that matter. SB will be out in ~ 6 months, and the top of the line SB will compete with a 5450. that's not exactly going to convince a lot of people to stop buying discrete cards. BD is probably going to be much faster, but that is 12-18 months away, by which time we'll have gone through another generation or perhaps even 2 gens of gpus.

Don't get me wrong, I think that the low end consumer gpu market is going to go away, but it's not happening for a while. we need 1 more and possibly 2 more gens of APU's to really ratchet up some decent performance imho.
 
who has integrated graphics that can compete with a $150 video card right now? or even a $30 video card for that matter. SB will be out in ~ 6 months, and the top of the line SB will compete with a 5450. that's not exactly going to convince a lot of people to stop buying discrete cards. BD is probably going to be much faster, but that is 12-18 months away, by which time we'll have gone through another generation or perhaps even 2 gens of gpus.

Don't get me wrong, I think that the low end consumer gpu market is going to go away, but it's not happening for a while. we need 1 more and possibly 2 more gens of APU's to really ratchet up some decent performance imho.


AMD has the HP but the CPU cores are running behind a bit. I think it was a smart move to use a K10 to speed development along honestly. CPU guys are gonna cry about it but who cares. A 4 core or 2 core cpu with 56xx series graphics is gonna do what 80% of users need.

I think BD APU comming 18+ months from now may very well be 6770 level graphics but that chip will come after the BD release and right now they have the time to put the newer gpu core on.

You can already see nvidia the last 3-4 years making the end run out of intergrated. Wether that move keeps them going to or kills them ??? Thats a hard prediction.If they find new markets for their GPU core tech the discrete and workstation stuff will keep them going for a little while.

AMD and Intel closing out the integrated market totally. That looks like a done deal by q2 2011 as they have been planning for several years to do so.

when process gets to 18-16nm I really don't see anything from nvidia beside workstation cards. They should move to arm/gpu IP lisecnsing if they want to survive. Maybe getinto game engine APi work. they do very very well there.

As a hardware manu I see no real future in 3-5 years.
 
I am done adressing you. We are not discussing the small 5% market share enthausit market. We are discuissing the 70-85% market that buy a PC and never even iopens it up.

same people who don't change their own flat tires

unclog the sink

etc etc etc

You are simply being obtuse and its tiring.


Well, let say OP is a Nvidia fanboy, but instead of simply believe what he believes, he take a simple step in verifying what he believes, and therefore found something interesting for himself, knowledge. A proactive person simply said "I know it all, and I told you so", while still live in its own little world.

Please don't pretend you know, as even people who worked in AMD don't. They believe in their work, but they don't know for sure. They would have go bankrupt long ago otherwise. Nvidia bite the bullet which use the Fermi design which many believe it simply won't work. Guess what, it does. Was it an OMG big bang? No, it simply works at a acceptable level, which is already an great success for something new. With Fermi they can milk it for several years. Look at how fast from "TOO BIG! TOO HOT!" to "its decent."

AMD have a lot to do. Making Fusion is like challenging 2 opponents at the same time. The question is how much resources AMD put into it. If they go all out and it isn't the greatest thing you can ever purchase, then they will go bye bye. Of course they didn't go all out. There are 6 core CPUs, 6xxx series video card as well as their revisions. Dream on brother, dream on.
 
To the OP (Russiansensation):

I think all of that is accurate and correct but I think nvidia addressed the gaming market specifically with the gf104 core. It's a shame though that the timing and potential of GF104 overlaps with GF100 to the point where they are having to sell crippled chips on purpose so they don't hurt their own sales of GF100 in the consumer space. I think future consumer desktop parts are going to more based off GF104 than GF100. Obviously GF100 was built to fulfill a dual role and therefore faces some challenges when being used as a consumer GPU for games. However, now that GF104 is out and successful, Nvidia will probably base future iterations of consumer desktop GPU cards off GF104 and use GF100's base (with obviously some of the improvements from GF104) in the HPC space.

Perhaps the "painful" part of building two divergent cores took place with these two cores and now they can have teams that more effectively concentrate on each market individually.
 
As for the Fusion and APUs vs Discrete

With APUs we don’t get embedded graphics Chipsets (On board) any more. Have a look at Intel, the last embedded Chipset was the G45 for Core 2 and Core 2 Quad. Since they introduced the Westmare (Clarkdale) Core i3-i5 they haven’t made nor they intend to make any more embedded Chipsets. Same goes for AMD, when they will introduce Llano some time in H1 2011 the last embedded Chipset will be the 890G. So APUs will continue from where embedded Chipsets left.

Perhaps APUs will take a small market share from Entry level Discrete Graphics like HD5450 and GT210 but then again when Sandybridge (Q1 2011) and Llano (Q2 2011 ?) will be introduced, Entry Level Discrete Graphics cards will be replaced with newer faster than HD5450/GT210. So even Entry level Discrete will coexist with APUs for a long time.
 
Well if it comes to market, and it performs faster than Intel IGP alternatives and is simultaneously cheaper, why wouldn't EVERYONE but it?


beucase 85% of pc users don't need that much performance and it add significant cost to the MB.

We are talking about $5 spread across 500,000 units. Thats alot of bread dude.
 
As for the Fusion and APUs vs Discrete

With APUs we don’t get embedded graphics Chipsets (On board) any more. Have a look at Intel, the last embedded Chipset was the G45 for Core 2 and Core 2 Quad. Since they introduced the Westmare (Clarkdale) Core i3-i5 they haven’t made nor they intend to make any more embedded Chipsets. Same goes for AMD, when they will introduce Llano some time in H1 2011 the last embedded Chipset will be the 890G. So APUs will continue from where embedded Chipsets left.

Perhaps APUs will take a small market share from Entry level Discrete Graphics like HD5450 and GT210 but then again when Sandybridge (Q1 2011) and Llano (Q2 2011 ?) will be introduced, Entry Level Discrete Graphics cards will be replaced with newer faster than HD5450/GT210. So even Entry level Discrete will coexist with APUs for a long time.


Not really. This is all about getting rid of nvidia and making boards cheaper.AMD has been saying at least 56xx series performance. Could be higher if the tie the cpu and GPU core toegether really well. There is a AvP demo of it being played on a AMD APU with nice detail and good framerates.
 
And while I saw nVidia's focus seem to shift to the professional space more than towards gamers I didn't realize that they derive so much revenue from pro level cards. This explains a lot.

Just imagine the executive team and the board of directors sitting there and talking about strategy:

"We can only manufacture 1 architecture due to time and cost constraints. We can either make the fastest GPU in each price segment and sell the cards for $100-$600, while competing feverishly with ATI in a market susceptible to economic downturn and uncertainty (us common folks) OR we can manufacture a product so superior in a specific market where we have little competition and price it out of this world to make up for the loss of volume. Plus, corporate customers will be more product inelastic since they still have to develop their own services for them to survive, which require our graphics cards for visual design. So which one is it going to be Jen-Hsung Huang???"

Since there aren't many viable options, you can get close to the maximum price that people are willing to pay for the product they are selling (because of a lack of competitive options). So even though the volume is much lower than discrete consumer level graphics cards, nVidia is able to make up for it by getting the maximum gross profit the market would bear; just because they drive the market.

Excellent assessment Martimus. This is exactly what NV is doing. NV probably would have done much better in the discrete markets if they developed a mid-range chip separate from the high-end chip as well though (similar to what we see with Juniper vs. Cypress).

So look at what NV did - their cards were not loved by gamers, yet now they can sell the exact videocard chips we get for the desktop to professional users for the following prices:

Quadro 4000 - 252 CUDA - $1,199
Quadro 5000 - 352 CUDA (GTX465 equivalent) - $2,249
Quadro 6000 - 448 CUDA (similar to GTX470) - $4,999
Quadro 7000 - 448x2 CUDA (2x GTX470s) - $14,500

Source: http://www.gizmag.com/nvidia-fermi-quadro-gpu/16034/

Obviously, market prices will be lower (plus depending on the customer volume). Still it gives you the idea of what NV's motivation was!!!

Look at Quadro 6000. You can find a single GTX470 for $260. The professional version of the same card with different ram/memory interface is $5k!!! 😵
 
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Not really. This is all about getting rid of nvidia and making boards cheaper.AMD has been saying at least 56xx series performance. Could be higher if the tie the cpu and GPU core toegether really well. There is a AvP demo of it being played on a AMD APU with nice detail and good framerates.


Not really, Fusion is all about getting more Share for AMD over Intel.

No framerates where showed on any AVP demo nor resolution and other specs.
 
First off all, those numbers are Trefis stock price estimate and not actual market Share

I don’t have the numbers but I believe the embedded are more than the professional cards.

7.200 mil units are almost 30% of the total Graphics cards NV sold in Q2 2010, so the Professional cards are far less.

It's not the volume/# of cards sold or market share that I presented (I specifically said revenue streams with respect to their profit margins). In fact, it's the contribution to the bottom line and how it drives the stock price that I linked -- probably the most important indicator for product development and investors.

I am not saying that more professional cards are sold than any other -- not at all in fact. What I am saying is NV makes more $$$ (through higher profit margins) in the professional segment than in both of their mobile+discrete segments combined. So in relation to profits, the professional market profits are almost as large as the profits both ATI and NV extract together from the discrete market.

Think about it, in the most simplistic terms (not considering marketing costs, product support, volume discounts, etc.), NV sells 1x GTX470 for $5,000 in the professional market. Let's say the bill of materials (BOM) for their professional card is $300 (more than desktop 470 due to larger 6GB of ram/384-bit memory interface, etc.) How many GTX470s will they need to sell in the discrete space to get the same profits? [$4,700 / ($300 GTX470 - $150 BOM for desktop 1.28gb/320-bit card) = 31.

Now you see why the professional market is so large in terms of profits? NV sells 1 GTX470 labeled as Quadro 6000 and on the desktop they would need to sell 30 of the same cards to make the same profits.
 
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What is so special about these professional level cards other than added ram?

Better driver support for your applications. And I believe features are also exposed via the driver that arent available on the consumer cards. And I could be wrong on this. But the support mechanism is much better. Want a feature implemented in Autocad? Get Nvidia on the horn and they can initiate it for you.
 
You restating the obvious doesn't make it any less or more real. several of us have been telling you this for days.

Yet now you need ot read it somwehere else.

expect sales points 2-5 to disappear to nvidia leaving them with 1 and 6

What? This doesn't even deserve a response.
 
Not really, Fusion is all about getting more Share for AMD over Intel.

No framerates where showed on any AVP demo nor resolution and other specs.

If you belive that. I have some ocean front property for sale in upstate ney york . Its a bargin.

The fact it can play AVP on even medium to high settings speaks volumes. Thats a preproduction prototype to.

Keep working forward.
 
NV's CEO knows they can't survive if they focus on desktop graphics alone. Their CEO continues to try to push the company into other areas:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-20013543-64.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

"Our CPU strategy is ARM," Huang said, referring to the fact that Nvidia was, unit last year, only a supplier of GPUs. "ARM is the fastest growing processor architecture in the world today. ARM supports (Google's) Android best. And Android is the fastest growing OS in the world today," Huang said.

Again, when you have 1 CEO but more than 1 area of focus, it becomes naturally difficult to maintain leadership in all of your business offerings.
 
NV's CEO knows they can't survive if they focus on desktop graphics alone. Their CEO continues to try to push the company into other areas:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13924_3-20013543-64.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

"Our CPU strategy is ARM," Huang said, referring to the fact that Nvidia was, unit last year, only a supplier of GPUs. "ARM is the fastest growing processor architecture in the world today. ARM supports (Google's) Android best. And Android is the fastest growing OS in the world today," Huang said.

Again, when you have 1 CEO but more than 1 area of focus, it becomes naturally difficult to maintain leadership in all of your business offerings.


You don't have to look real hard to figure out that nvidia is a company with a product profolio that is becoming outdated. I don't wish them I'll maybe like I siad.

They should move to IP and game engines and workstations. They do very well there and they should consider locking ATI/AMD into a chip supply onctract for workstations, stop build there own hardware and focus on driver and feature implementation.

Nvidia needs to realize quickly the predicament its in. but I bet it knows already.
 
You don't have to look real hard to figure out that nvidia is a company with a product profolio that is becoming outdated. I don't wish them I'll maybe like I siad.

They should move to IP and game engines and workstations. They do very well there and they should consider locking ATI/AMD into a chip supply onctract for workstations, stop build there own hardware and focus on driver and feature implementation.

Nvidia needs to realize quickly the predicament its in. but I bet it knows already.

Yes, I am sure they are going to do just that!


(hope your meter is working)

Discreet graphics arent going away, and nV isnt going to stop supplying them. And people aren't going to stop buying them.
 
Yes, I am sure they are going to do just that!


(hope your meter is working)

Discreet graphics arent going away, and nV isnt going to stop supplying them. And people aren't going to stop buying them.


Nvidia is going away if they don't change gears.APU performance is gonna shrink the discrete market severly soon. 2 years from today the 5770's and gtx460 will be on the apu. this leaves what market space ? 5870 and above ?

Thats basing it on todays hardware for comparisons sake.

Nvidia would do better to start buying AMD hardware and becoming a deep board/technoloigy partner if it wants to survive.

but we could put money on nvidias survival in 5 years if you like.
 
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