My understanding of the motivation behind NV's Fermi and future product developments

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ModestGamer

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What does that have to do with anything? I thought the high volume products made something mainstream, but it doesn't change its performance category.

By all means, list out the price bracket's you'd use for the common discriptors such as low-end, entry, mid-range, high-end, and enthusiast.

I remember in a thread earlier someone said "GTX 480 isn't high end" and the crowd laughed at him because they clearly understod it was. So if GTX 480/5870 is High End, and HD 5970 is Enthusiast, what is HD 5830/GTX 460 768MB? It definetely isn't low end/entry. I'd peg it at low mid-range, and like I said before going off Clarksdale, I wouldn't recommend the CPU+GPU package for someone wanting to game at 1680x1050 resolutions (the more common LCD resolution.)



Show me where I said they did?

Unless you are of the same mentality as him that Mid-Range excludes the GTX 460 and HD 5830?


Mid range relative to what ? your missing the point. Nvidia has been shown the integrated market door. Effectively they just lost chipsets and intergrated graphics on everything.

Now how many people ever upgrade a card.

a $200 card is uber high end in a $500 pc.

[redacted]

Personal attacks/insults are not acceptable.

Moderator Idontcare
 
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Daedalus685

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2009
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The thing that concerns me about Nvidia is that AMD really seems like they are not trying in the work station market... and if they are trying they suck really bad at it..

The toms review shows very clearly just how pitiful the lead over the V8700 is for the V8800... They doubled nearly everything on the core and get in many tests fractions of a percent increase. There are times when the Q5000 more than doubles the Q4500 while the V8800 stays in a dead heat with the V8700...

I don't know if it is just an example of the poor scaling the 5 shader cluster architecture gives, or if it is drivers.

But what we have is nearly a third of Nvidias focus being in an area where there is simply no competition. What happens if AMD solves the scaling issue by either hiring some professional driver development teams to optimize them, or changes the scaling drastically with NI/SI. The professional market is not one where they can afford to be in a pricing war and so forth... They are doing fine because it is for all intents and purposes their own, is that expected to continue or will AMD change their minds. (Does AMD even feel they need that market with their CPU business on the go?)
 

Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
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lets revisit this anology. what percentage of pc users ever buy a graphics card ?

its a prebuilt desktop and enterprise productivity war on the horizon. If you can't see it. your just being ignorant.

what percentage of computers get a upgraded graphics card vrs what came stock ?

This is the market AMD and Intel are going to do battle in next and nvidia has been shown the door.

Get over it.

Apparently over 60% of the market buys integrated solutions since that is Intel's market share. What I am asking you is do you expect that market to suddenly grow because of Fusion? Why? AMD will be doing battle with Intel more than Nvidia imo. They need to convince people to buy their integrated solution over Intels. Nvidia loses the sub 100 market. A market populated for them by discontinued products. Now if Fusion and Intels crap can actually make it into the over 100 market in terms of performance. I will be very impressed and agree the [redacted] is hitting the fan. I dont have high hopes we will see an integrated solution that performs as well as a 125-150 dollar discrete card.

We allow cussing in P&N and OT, not in the tech forums.

Moderator Idontcare
 
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ModestGamer

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Jun 30, 2010
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The thing that concerns me about Nvidia is that AMD really seems like they are not trying in the work station market... and if they are trying they suck really bad at it..

The toms review shows very clearly just how pitiful the lead over the V8700 is for the V8800... They doubled nearly everything on the core and get in many tests fractions of a percent increase. There are times when the Q5000 more than doubles the Q4500 while the V8800 stays in a dead heat with the V8700...

I don't know if it is just an example of the poor scaling the 5 shader cluster architecture gives, or if it is drivers.

But what we have is nearly a third of Nvidias focus being in an area where there is simply no competition. What happens if AMD solves the scaling issue by either hiring some professional driver development teams to optimize them, or changes the scaling drastically with NI/SI. The professional market is not one where they can afford to be in a pricing war and so forth... They are doing fine because it is for all intents and purposes their own, is that expected to continue or will AMD change their minds. (Does AMD even feel they need that market with their CPU business on the go?)


Right now they are going to need to gain market share in other places and get the products they have on the table delivered and to consumers. Once they do that I'd bet we may seem them make at run at workstations. If I was AMD I would be planning wether it was on paper or not to hit that very profitable segment.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
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Mid range relative to what ? your missing the point. Nvidia has been shown the integrated market door. Effectively they just lost chipsets and intergrated graphics on everything.

Now how many people ever upgrade a card.

a $200 card is uber high end in a $500 pc.

Get your head out of your ass.

It's funny that you don't even understand my purposed statement and yet I need to get my head out of the ass.

Mid-Range would still be a viable market for the discrete sector. Unless, you believe that the coming CPU+GPU processor will completely gobble that up.

If they sell 2million or 1million it is still a market that they could keep viable by doing what I said take a gimped professional card, ala (again):

GF100 - Professional Market
GF104 - Discrete Market (mid-range and up through OC and good SLI scalability.)

Again, I never mentioned the integrated/low end. You injected that into the conversation and seem to be annoyed that I'm not acknowledging it. It has nothing to do with what I was stating.
 

ModestGamer

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Jun 30, 2010
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Apparently over 60% of the market buys integrated solutions since that is Intel's market share. What I am asking you is do you expect that market to suddenly grow because of Fusion? Why? AMD will be doing battle with Intel more than Nvidia imo. They need to convince people to buy their integrated solution over Intels. Nvidia loses the sub 100 market. A market populated for them by discontinued products. Now if Fusion and Intels crap can actually make it into the over 100 market in terms of performance. I will be very impressed and agree the shit is hitting the fan. I dont have high hopes we will see an integrated solution that performs as well as a 125-150 dollar discrete card.


You have a rude awakening comming. Also AMD is taking aim at intel but they oth shut the door on oem Nvidia products.

I stated it today. within 6 months nvidia will discontinue all integrated products.

Mark the time and date.

the only people they have to convince is OEM's. given AMD's attractive pricing and performance metrics AMD has intel by the balls here. Intel knows this to.

Everyone looking knows this.
 
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ModestGamer

Banned
Jun 30, 2010
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your issue is that your are driving a ferrari

Most people buy a ford escort

They will be getting a free upgrade to a caddilac.

[redacted]

your completely ignoring consumer metrics in favor of performance metrics which don't mean crap to 65% of consumers.

It's funny that you don't even understand my purposed statement and yet I need to get my head out of the ass.

Mid-Range would still be a viable market for the discrete sector. Unless, you believe that the coming CPU+GPU processor will completely gobble that up.

If they sell 2million or 1million it is still a market that they could keep viable by doing what I said take a gimped professional card, ala (again):

GF100 - Professional Market
GF104 - Discrete Market (mid-range and up through OC and good SLI scalability.)

Again, I never mentioned the integrated/low end. You injected that into the conversation and seem to be annoyed that I'm not acknowledging it. It has nothing to do with what I was stating.

Personal attacks/insults are not acceptable.

Moderator Idontcare
 
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Genx87

Lifer
Apr 8, 2002
41,091
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You have a rude awakening comming. Also AMD is taking aim at intel but they oth shut the door on oem Nvidia products.

I stated it today. within 6 months nvidia will discontinue all integrated products.

Mark the time and date.

I will happily await that rude awakening. Until it is shown, I dont believe for a second an integrated solution is going to be competing with a 150 dollar discrete card anytime soon. If they do such a thing they will gobble up their own graphics division in the process selling mid level performance at budget prices trying to undercut Intel.
 

ModestGamer

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Jun 30, 2010
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I will happily await that rude awakening. Until it is shown, I dont believe for a second an integrated solution is going to be competing with a 150 dollar discrete card anytime soon. If they do such a thing they will gobble up their own graphics division in the process selling mid level performance at budget prices trying to undercut Intel.


They have it. Belive it. Move on.
 

railven

Diamond Member
Mar 25, 2010
6,604
561
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your issue is that your are driving a ferrari

Most people buy a ford escort

They will be getting a free upgrade to a caddilac.

Your head is clearly wedged up your ass.

your completely ignoring consumer metrics in favor of performance metrics which don't mean crap to 65% of consumers.

Wow you are stubborn. Okay, let me simplfy:

1) Will there be people who still want GTX 460/HD 5830 or better performance for their computers?
2) Do you think/believe that the GPU+CPU solutions from both camps would cover those people?

Again, whether it is 20million or 1million it is still a market that can be tapped into. Why is it so hard to fathom they can still keep the few people in that market satisfied with a gimped professional card that delivers on the metric that market is interested in - gaming performance?

You know how they are sort of doing with GF100 and GF104.
 

Daedalus685

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2009
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What does that have to do with anything? I thought the high volume products made something mainstream, but it doesn't change its performance category.

ATI at least would list the range they feel the cards fall in, usually a "core" is aimed at a range, not a product.. such that the 5830 is the same segment as the 5870... it is not segmented such that the 5830 is mid range while the 5870 is high end even though the price differential is high.

In that way 5400 is entry level, 5500 and 5600 are mainstream low end (they are both redwood), 5700 midrange, 5800 high end, and the 5900 enthusiast (merely because of the huge price premium).

When folks talk about losing the low end, we are talking about the 5400 level. This will likely be gone entirely with integrated getting better. Fusion will also eat deep into mainstream and other segments will have to change to keep relevant as well.

It is all semantics though, obviously most of us woudl consider a 5830 well into mid range, but that is not how AMD refers to things.. but when you hear us talking about what is going away we are referring to how the industry segments things.. not how us individuals split up the 200+ bracket. As far as Nvidia or AMD are concerned 200+ is high end... even if that bracket goes up to $900 (though at one point they have enthusiast which is marketing speak for "we don't expect many people to be crazy enough to buy this")
 

ModestGamer

Banned
Jun 30, 2010
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[redacted]

lets say company DGIBM sells 250 million pc's a year.

thats 250 million NB
250 million inegrated graphics unit
250 million SB's.

Company X comes along and says.

Hey we can remove 2 of those components and incorporate those into the CPU saving you $15 per board. While we are at it we can give you a 200% increase in performance, a 150% increase in battery life and a 40% reduction in thermal load.

All for a single chip cost increase of $4.

Company DGIBM says ok.

out of the 250 million units sold 2 million buyers add upgraded graphics cards.

the other 248 million buyers were happy.

if your making 250 million chips. 2 million people aren't on your radar beucase they a 0.005% of you whole business model.

Economics is what your not grasping.


Wow you are stubborn. Okay, let me simplfy:

1) Will there be people who still want GTX 460/HD 5830 or better performance for their computers?
2) Do you think/believe that the GPU+CPU solutions from both camps would cover those people?

Again, whether it is 20million or 1million it is still a market that can be tapped into. Why is it so hard to fathom they can still keep the few people in that market satisfied with a gimped professional card that delivers on the metric that market is interested in - gaming performance?

You know how they are sort of doing with GF100 and GF104.

Personal attacks/insults are not acceptable.

Moderator Idontcare
 
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Daedalus685

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2009
1,386
1
0
Wow you are stubborn. Okay, let me simplfy:

1) Will there be people who still want GTX 460/HD 5830 or better performance for their computers?
2) Do you think/believe that the GPU+CPU solutions from both camps would cover those people?

Again, whether it is 20million or 1million it is still a market that can be tapped into. Why is it so hard to fathom they can still keep the few people in that market satisfied with a gimped professional card that delivers on the metric that market is interested in - gaming performance?

You know how they are sort of doing with GF100 and GF104.


You have to understand that in a pure GPU company (of which Nvidia is the only one remaining) the bread and butter profit was always the low end (i.e. integrated OEM crap none of us woudl ever want to buy).

That market will for the most part be gone, so one will have to turn to the #2 (in this case professional) market to make cash. The high end GPU markets make very little profit and on their own don't nearly cover the R&D. They exist because the research into them makes a fortune in the volume OEM markets (that will be going away) and the marketing mind share the halo products gives is a huge boon as well.

There will always be a market for high end cards, for the cards that all of us use. The problem is that at some point the market shrink gets to a point that it is not profitable to develop them at the prices they currently sell for. So the fusion experience either means Nvidia is in trouble (though not big trouble as they have other markets... just that the products they start to make may not seem as gaming oriented) or high end cards will start to cost a lot more than we currently are used to.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
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You have a rude awakening comming. Also AMD is taking aim at intel but they oth shut the door on oem Nvidia products.

I stated it today. within 6 months nvidia will discontinue all integrated products.

Mark the time and date.

the only people they have to convince is OEM's. given AMD's attractive pricing and performance metrics AMD has intel by the balls here. Intel knows this to.

Everyone looking knows this.

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20100901PD215.html

Nvidia said to be planning chipset that combines GPU and southbridge

Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 1 September 2010]

:whiste:
 

Daedalus685

Golden Member
Nov 12, 2009
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They have to plan because they can't fall behind on R&D in a field that makes them so much bloody money... The problem is not their willingness to produce the chip sets (I'm sure they have something on paper that could replace an x58) but their permission to do so.

So one saves $15 by not buying the Intel SB... the nvidia chip then costs what? and it adds the same kind of southbridge but also a GPU which is already included on the CPU... How does this save power and size?
 
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Madcatatlas

Golden Member
Feb 22, 2010
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Show me where I said they did?

Unless you are of the same mentality as him that Mid-Range excludes the GTX 460 and HD 5830?


Well, i guess you want it with a spoon.

SB and BD higher version APUs probably wont launch before the 6xxx series.

You used your HD4850 as an example of midrange. Im sorry to say, but when you compare HD67xx series to that, its not midrange, its lowend.

And again, read his post and the words "100 bucks and under". Do you understand the meaning of those words put together?

It means: 100 bucks and under, which excludes anything above 100 bucks.


HD4850s cost more than 100 bucks, even today. gtx460 768 mbs cost anything from 170 bucks and up.


Now..did i make myself clear or are you just going to misunderstand me again?
 

ModestGamer

Banned
Jun 30, 2010
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They have to plan because they can't fall behind on R&D in a field that makes them so much bloody money... The problem is not their willingness to produce the chip sets (I'm sure they have something on paper that could replace an x58) but their permission to do so.


they need volume OEM sales to make this commercially viable. I see no reason for a OEM to pay for that hardware when AMD fusion and Intel SB products will perform just as good with one less high dollar parts on the board. No OEM will pay to make that board. No need. Its already proven the 60% of the market is needs are meet with integrated intel graphics.

The have no demand for this product. At this point is bluster to try and hold onto stock values. the shareholder will get to see q3 2010 and q1 2011 what the world of APU does to nvidia and it isn't going to be pretty.

Smartly though nvidia shifted to other markets. Thats gonna be what saves them.

for now.
 

ModestGamer

Banned
Jun 30, 2010
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They have it. Believe it. Move on.


Oh they have. I don't doubt that.

Who is going to buy it ? why would they ?

NO NEED FOR IT

show me production orders. I doubt they have any and if they do the volumes will be way way way to low to justify the exspense.

I don't doubt nvidias ability to make integrated parts. The issue is that they have no one to sell them to.
 

Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
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Oh they have. I don't doubt that.

Who is going to buy it ? why would they ?

NO NEED FOR IT

The same people who were buying their chipsets before. So far Sandy Bridge does not even compete with a GT240, nothing I've read says that Fusion will be any better. Hell I bet Apple would be on this like a fat kid on a candy bar.
 

ModestGamer

Banned
Jun 30, 2010
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The same people who were buying their chipsets before. So far Sandy Bridge does not even compete with a GT240, nothing I've read says that Fusion will be any better. Hell I bet Apple would be on this like a fat kid on a candy bar.


[redacted]

http://forums.legitreviews.com/about23783.html

ask yourself. Why would intel force nvidias hand in this ?

hmmmm was it to buy time to lockup chipset deals ? Maybe force nvidia out with comming product or to delay them long enough to get SB out.

hmmmm.

I can lead you to water but if you want to die of thrist feel free.

there is no longer a need for nvidia chipsets with inegrated graphics. I'd bet in one more cpu generation 80% of the chipset functions are going to land on the cpu further reducing the need for external hardware.

But thats just looking at where things are headed.

Personal attacks/insults are not acceptable.

Moderator Idontcare
 
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Wreckage

Banned
Jul 1, 2005
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[redacted by Moderater Idontcare]

http://forums.legitreviews.com/about23783.html

ask yourself. Why would intel force nvidias hand in this ?

hmmmm was it to buy time to lockup chipset deals ? Maybe force nvidia out with comming product or to delay them long enough to get SB out.

hmmmm.

I can lead you to water but if you want to die of thrist feel free.

there is no longer a need for nvidia chipsets with inegrated graphics. I'd bet in one more cpu generation 80% of the chipset functions are going to land on the cpu further reducing the need for external hardware.

But thats just looking at where things are headed.

Hmmm that article is from 2009..... didn't something happen since then?

http://www.semiaccurate.com/2010/08/04/intel-settles-ftc-and-nvidia-win-big/

Intel settles with the FTC, Via and Nvidia win big

Game on.
 
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Seero

Golden Member
Nov 4, 2009
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Its becuase you have a reactive mind not a proactive mind.

The question should always be.

what motivates my opponent and how to use that to my advantage.

AMD will move into more rendering cards once they finish killing nvidia out of this market. Just not right now.
proactive mind?

You make it sounds like AMD want to kill off a market with a single chip. Unfortunately, that is not proactive mind. Who with the right mind will try to combine a market by using one chip? If you think AMD's fusion is going to kill anything, it is going to be itself.

Fusion is a new type of CPU, at best it will stay in the market, but can't kill a market. Let say there are 3 markets only. A rich, B mid, and C low. If a single chip can be used in A, B, and C, then this chip must be cheap and powerful at the same time. What does it mean? Market B and C will buy the chip and won't buy another one for years to come. Profit? To customer yes, big time. For the manufacturer? Short term yes, but will quickly dies out.

The definition of proactive is to create new markets. Nvidia opened the professional graphics as well as GPGPU, the high end computing with GPU at the supercomputing segment with tesla at the top end, tegra at the mobile segment, and ION to the mini PC segment. Those are all new markets for a GPU company. Harvesting those will make money until opponent steps in, which will saturate overtime.

Back to Fusion. It must create its own market, or it won't go far. It will eventually create a segment on the mini PC/notebook market if it is done right, which is what AMD needs to survive.

People with reactive mind will believe AMD will eventually kill off everything else that ever created because of the success of cypress. However, cypress' glory has long pass due and if they don't come up with something great again. Otherwise, they will lose whatever they have gained with cypress. Nvidia believed they are save with the 2xx series and believed that AMD is far away until they were hit by the cypress. In six months time Nvidia suffers huge hit in the discrete video card market until they finally come back with a decent card GTX460 to stop bleeding uncontrollably. But that is far far away from a knock out. If AMD don't have some surprises under its sleeves, the market will bounce right back to before cypress.

Seriously, usually people don't kill people. We simply try to survive. The same thing happens to companies. AMD won't want Nvidia to die or else Intel will kill it shortly after. Nvidia won't kill AMD either as Intel will kill it too. What they do want is to kill Intel, which they really can't. As soon as AMD successfully sued Intel, others immediately follow, including Nvidia. They can be best friend forever if the discrete market is big enough to feed all the employees. Unfortunately, it isn't enough. In fact, AMD is good at CPU, but since its opponent is too strong, they brought ATI so they can cover more ground. Unfortunately, Nvidia is very strong at GPU and Intel is very strong at CPU, leaving AMD very small room to breath. Fusion was the first project right after AMD and ATI become one, but for 15 years I still don't see AMD make well use of its advantage of having 2 blades. They are not dump, it is just too funky hard to do it.

Intel is the only one who have the muscle to kill others, but laws prevents them to do so. By killing i don't mean making better goods, but to use connections and relations to stop its target from functioning. Otherwise, their opponent will not die just because of a good product. "Duh, they simply cost more to buy!"
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,003
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RussianSensation said:
1. Professional Graphics - 31.5%
2. Discrete Graphics - 18.7%
3. Mobile and Game Console Computing Chips - 10.8%
4. Integrated Graphics - 9.8%
5. DRAM Graphics memory - 3.0%
6. Net cash - 26.3%


From Terfis said:
The value of a company is the sum of the values of its divisions, plus cash, minus debt.
For nVIDIA, Pro Graphics Cards is 31.5% of the Trefis stock price estimate, and is the most important division.

First off all, those numbers are Trefis stock price estimate and not actual market Share

From the image below you can see the Q2 2010 Graphics Cards market share

gpumsq2.gif


Table 5.1 shows the total Graphics Card Market Share for all companies (every segment)

Table 5.2 shows the Discrete (Desktop + Mobile) Graphics Card Market Share for AMD and NV

Table 5.4 is what we want to see. It shows the Discrete Desktop Market Share and the table bellow is the Market Share per $ division.

The last table 5.14 shows the Discrete Mobile Market Share




For the desktop Discrete market, we have the following results for each per $ Category (total both AMD and NV)

Category $0-100
9.298 Mil units and 60% of the total Market Share

Category $100-200
4.485 mil units and 29% of the total Market Share

Category $200-300
551 Thousands units and 3,5% of the total Market Share

Category $300+
1.115 mil units and 7,5% of the total Market Share



If you take the total number of cards NV sold in Q2 2010 from table 5.1 is 24.225 mil

Take off 17.025 mil from table 5.2 witch is the combined Discrete (Desktop + Mobile) and we have 24.225 – 17.025 = 7.200 mil

These 7.200 mil cards are embedded (On-Boards) (a lot for Apple I thing) and professional cards.

I don’t have the numbers but I believe the embedded are more than the professional cards.

7.200 mil units are almost 30% of the total Graphics cards NV sold in Q2 2010, so the Professional cards are far less.
 
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