My Prediction for the 2010 elections: The democrats wil surprise you

[theeedude]

IIRC, the Contract With America was introduced only 6 weeks or so before the 94 elections.

And defaulted on 6 weeks or so after

 

[sportage]

In iOwa the ex 7 or 8 term republican governor of days past, Branstad, rose from the dead to win against two other republican challengers. The news media are making a big deal because Sarah Palin endorsed Branstad. Totally misleading. Fact is, all three republican hopefuls were losers. One unknown, another a nut case wanting to overturn the courts and legislative decisions with his own beliefs (a King of iOwa wanna-be), and Branstad who everyone is totally sick of. The republican turnout for this vote poor was pathetic.
So Sarah endorsing Branstad means nothing. The current democrat governor, Culver, has all but been written off as having any chance in 2010. Chet Culver will easily win. Democrats are coming out in droves to support democrats, where republicans are pretty much at a loss and un motivated given what they have to pick from.
Yes I agree, democrats will hold their ground, easily.

 

[ProfJohn]

All you have to do is look at the job numbers.

The worse they are the worse it will be for Democrats.

The numbers for last month were awful. If we don't see some major job improvement the Democrats are going to get killed big time.

Also, there is really nothing that will happen between now and election day that will help the Democrats.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

In iOwa the ex 7 or 8 term republican governor of days past, Branstad, rose from the dead to win against two other republican challengers. The news media are making a big deal because Sarah Palin endorsed Branstad. Totally misleading. Fact is, all three republican hopefuls were losers. One unknown, another a nut case wanting to overturn the courts and legislative decisions with his own beliefs (a King of iOwa wanna-be), and Branstad who everyone is totally sick of. The republican turnout for this vote poor was pathetic.
So Sarah endorsing Branstad means nothing. The current democrat governor, Culver, has all but been written off as having any chance in 2010. Chet Culver will easily win. Democrats are coming out in droves to support democrats, where republicans are pretty much at a loss and un motivated given what they have to pick from.
Yes I agree, democrats will hold their ground, easily.

Culver has exactly zero chance against braindead. Yes, he's an ex 4 time Governor that is staging a comeback(why? who knows) but he's really nothing but a tool of the GOP establishment here. The power players asked him to run because they don't like BVP and the fresh new blood he'd bring to Iowa governance. Make no mistake though - the GOP is on notice and they've had to move away from their RINO BS. Hell, braindead was running ads trying to claim he was the real Conservative in the race - anyone with half a clue knows it was BS. Anywho - my uncle won his primary race against the GOP picked(last election cycle) RINO in Dist 8.

Oh and again, there is exactly ZERO chance that chester the molester will win against braindead. Even DEMOCRATS in Iowa will vote for braindead - not to mention the independents. Oh and your claim about pathetic turnout? Uhh... not so much. Did you pay attention at all? sheesh

 

[Bowfinger]

Culver has exactly zero chance against braindead. Yes, he's an ex 4 time Governor that is staging a comeback(why? who knows) but he's really nothing but a tool of the GOP establishment here. The power players asked him to run because they don't like BVP and the fresh new blood he'd bring to Iowa governance. Make no mistake though - the GOP is on notice and they've had to move away from their RINO BS. Hell, braindead was running ads trying to claim he was the real Conservative in the race - anyone with half a clue knows it was BS. Anywho - my uncle won his primary race against the GOP picked(last election cycle) RINO in Dist 8.

Oh and again, there is exactly ZERO chance that chester the molester will win against braindead. Even DEMOCRATS in Iowa will vote for braindead - not to mention the independents. Oh and your claim about pathetic turnout? Uhh... not so much. Did you pay attention at all? sheesh

Wishful thinking I suspect. As you acknowledge, Branstad was not a real conservative. His true legacy was run-away spending, big tax increases, and overall mismanagement of Iowa, points that Culver will hammer quite effectively when they go head to head. This will undermine Republican turnout, even if it doesn't lead many Reps to switch sides. Meanwhile, it fires up Democrats who loathe Branstad, increasing their turnout even though they likely aren't terribly enthused about Culver either. Much as 2008 was a all about not-Bush, I think this race will be about not-Branstad. Assuming the economy continues to improve, that should put Culver over the top.

Unfortunate, because Culver is mediocre on his better days. The Republicans missed an opportunity to field a truly capable candidate who could then move on to challenge Harkin in a few years.

 

[Perknose]

Anywho - my uncle won his primary race against the GOP picked(last election cycle) RINO in Dist 8.

The politics of you, me and your Uncle all aside CAD, on a strictly personal basis, that's kinda cool. :thumbsup:

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Wishful thinking I suspect. As you acknowledge, Branstad was not a real conservative. His true legacy was run-away spending, big tax increases, and overall mismanagement of Iowa, points that Culver will hammer quite effectively when they go head to head. This will undermine Republican turnout, even if it doesn't lead many Reps to switch sides. Meanwhile, it fires up Democrats who loathe Branstad, increasing their turnout even though they likely aren't terribly enthused about Culver either. Much as 2008 was a all about not-Bush, I think this race will be about not-Branstad. Assuming the economy continues to improve, that should put Culver over the top.

Unfortunate, because Culver is mediocre on his better days. The Republicans missed an opportunity to field a truly capable candidate who could then move on to challenge Harkin in a few years.

You can't be that clueless can you? CULVER trying to attack someone on run-away spending, big tax increases, and mismanagement of iowa? Buahahahaaaa!!!! The big lug can't go there lest he bring the spotlight back on himself for being even worse!
Keep wishing and hoping that it's about "not" braindead - but it's ALL about not-tubby. Have you been paying attention? Even the media has been reporting that Culver is in trouble. It's under his "watch" that Iowa has circled the toilet and wasted millions upon millions.

Anyway, I agree the GOP opted for the same old same old(barely) and it may get them a win this time but when the goal is removing the non-resident Harkin - they've all but given up it seems. Hell, they couldn't even pick the best candidate to challenge that pelosi puppet bozowell. I hope Zaun wins but he was not even close to the best candidate to beat the liar bozowell.

 

[Tab]

That's one helluva a prediction.

My prediction is that you're wrong, if only because Obama ain't running for POTUS on any 2010 ticket. He doesn't need to, he'll be President until at least 2012. He got a 4 year term like every other president.

Fern

Eh, you know what I meant. The Republican Party will gain a few seats here and there but as I said nothing extensive.

 

[Tab]

A 35 seat total loss, even if they narrowly retain both houses, is a pretty big drubbing in electoral terms. In political terms, it's still a moderately large drubbing, as the narrow margins will make it much harder for them to push anything through. Consider how it's been with healthcare and financial reform as it is. It will be much worse after November if they lose that many seats.

- wolf

That's pretty unlikely, they'll probably only again maybe 8-12

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/senate-forecast-update-little-chance-of.html

 

[Fern]

Eh, you know what I meant.
-snip-

I did.

I just couldn't help being a 'smart-hinney' yesterday.



Fern

 

[CADsortaGUY]

In iOwa the ex 7 or 8 term republican governor of days past, Branstad, rose from the dead to win against two other republican challengers. The news media are making a big deal because Sarah Palin endorsed Branstad. Totally misleading. Fact is, all three republican hopefuls were losers. One unknown, another a nut case wanting to overturn the courts and legislative decisions with his own beliefs (a King of iOwa wanna-be), and Branstad who everyone is totally sick of. The republican turnout for this vote poor was pathetic.
So Sarah endorsing Branstad means nothing. The current democrat governor, Culver, has all but been written off as having any chance in 2010. Chet Culver will easily win. Democrats are coming out in droves to support democrats, where republicans are pretty much at a loss and un motivated given what they have to pick from.
Yes I agree, democrats will hold their ground, easily.

Culver has exactly zero chance against braindead. Yes, he's an ex 4 time Governor that is staging a comeback(why? who knows) but he's really nothing but a tool of the GOP establishment here. The power players asked him to run because they don't like BVP and the fresh new blood he'd bring to Iowa governance. Make no mistake though - the GOP is on notice and they've had to move away from their RINO BS. Hell, braindead was running ads trying to claim he was the real Conservative in the race - anyone with half a clue knows it was BS. Anywho - my uncle won his primary race against the GOP picked(last election cycle) RINO in Dist 8.

Oh and again, there is exactly ZERO chance that chester the molester will win against braindead. Even DEMOCRATS in Iowa will vote for braindead - not to mention the independents. Oh and your claim about pathetic turnout? Uhh... not so much. Did you pay attention at all? sheesh

BTW, here is a link - moron. GOP primary turnout Tuesday highest since 1994 Yeah, I guess GOP primary turnout was "pathetic".... or were you talking about the Dem primary numbers?

 

[Patranus]

My Prediction.

Obama wins POTUS, Republicans pick up a dozen seats or so. Small win for Republican, but not enough to accomplish anything extensive.

Um. Obama isn't running for POTUS in 2010.

 

[ProfJohn]

That's pretty unlikely, they'll probably only again maybe 8-12

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/senate-forecast-update-little-chance-of.html

8-12 senate seats???


Realclear politics, which is unbiased, has the GOP picking up 6 in the Senate and 20 in the house with another 34 Democrat seats rated as toss ups. If the toss ups go 50/50 then it's a 35 seat pick up, one the largest in recent history.