My Own Incompetence Has Epic Payoff

[John Connor]

They used to here but I was trying to be positive.

Well, I posted something like "Don't flip out. This is OT" at the end of my post and colored it white. On the old forum, it would show up when quoted. Apparently, not any more.

I see this:

 

[John Connor]

So..... 16 straight years of gains, I find that doubtful. That would be unprecedented in American history. The current run has quadrupled the market since 2009. I think that beats the run under Bill Clinton. This has got to be the tail end.

Yeah, I really have no idea. It just seems logical to me. It;s just that the Stock Market is like a very emotional woman. (No offense to woman HAHA) The Stock Market likes what it sees right now under Trump, and if I'm right and Trump wins a second term, then I can only guess the market will continue to achieve gains.

I don't like to look at it as a bubble. The housing market BS thing was government induced and ultimately saved by non other than the government. I mean, Bush said "they all got drunk." But who was pouring the alcohol?

 

[muskie32]

Go 50% bitcoin. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[John Connor]

I've read that they are making IRAs and crap for Bitcoin.

I looked into trading various crypto currency, but it was all beyond my understanding.

 

[Charmonium]

Reminds me: I have an account I ignored for over a decade. Wonder if my negligence has paid off.

Do a search here and find out - https://www.unclaimed.org/

But don't rely just on the online search sites. I know for my state they only list a fraction of what you may have coming to you. You need to contact whatever dept in your state government handles unclaimed assets. Email them and ask them to do a search for you. That should turn up everything.

 

[FeuerFrei]

Do a search here and find out - https://www.unclaimed.org/

But don't rely just on the online search sites. I know for my state they only list a fraction of what you may have coming to you. You need to contact whatever dept in your state government handles unclaimed assets. Email them and ask them to do a search for you. That should turn up everything.

I searched Ohio and Texas just now, no luck. This was a matching fund I had with an employer while I lived in Ohio. Also still have papers showing my balance back in 2005 or so. Never set up online account access back then. I should probably phone someone at the financial services company.

 

[John Connor]

I must have seen every single episode of American Dad and Family Guy made withen the past 2 years 10 times over. And thus know practically every single scene and cutaway.

With that I give you this funny.

LMAO!

 

[FeuerFrei]

Ok I logged on to the financial services website after creating a new account. It connected me to my long dormant benefits account. I'd say my money has almost doubled!

 

[NesuD]

So..... 16 straight years of gains, I find that doubtful. That would be unprecedented in American history. The current run has quadrupled the market since 2009. I think that beats the run under Bill Clinton. This has got to be the tail end.

You don't really want to look at its growth from 2009 because that was the pit of the great recession. Measure from 2007 or 2011 to get a more accurate view of this bull run. It isn't in the black until it regains the losses from the 2009 crash. The good part is that at least in my case I had fully gained back all my lost equity by 2011 by simply doing nothing.

 

[skull]

I mean, the simple fact that it takes both parents to make ends meet anymore justifies that.

It drives me nuts when people say this. Anybody can survive on one income and live like they did back then. You just can't have two/three fancy cars, a big screen tv, eat out every night, everyone in the family can't have a cellphone/tablet/laptop, etc..

Back when woman stayed home they did dishes, laundry, cleaned the house watched kids and cooked. Now we have dishwashers, washers/dryers, kids go to daycare so mom doesn't have to deal with them and we eat out way more/have way easier food to cook.

 

[Thebobo]

You should be investing in progressively less volatile assets the closer you get to retirement so the prospect of a market crash is easier to handle.

Can you come over and slap me in the face and force me to do so because I know I should but but the market. And yes I am downhill side to retirement.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Damn I wish I had that much extra money to be able to say I got a 200k gain. I have like 20k in my RRSPs and that's barely enough to survive a year. I am FAR from being able to retire. With costs of living always going up the amount of money I can afford to put into savings is less every year.

Though my plan is when I retire I will buy property in a place that has super low taxes and live semi off grid. That way whatever I saved will last longer.

 

[Exterous]

Can you come over and slap me in the face and force me to do so because I know I should but but the market. And yes I am downhill side to retirement.

How far away are you? The current CAPE is ~30.4 and stock allocations above 70% haven't historically done well with a 4% SWR when the retirement duration is 30 years and CAPE is above 30. Of course some think CAPE is misleading because it is a rolling 10 year metric which includes the 2008 meltdown so there is that. Thats also if you are retiring now. Still there seems to be a lot coming out over the last couple of years that holding your age as a percent in bonds is too conservative and that higher stock allocations might be more appropriate. I haven't looked a ton but between 60-69% stocks seems to be consistently in the "High success" ranges - unless you've already got a ton of $ in which case you may want to consider the additional risk vs reward (that you wouldn't spend anyway)

 

[zinfamous]

Nearly a year and half ago I moved my entire 401k out of the stock market into a money market. I then watched with horror as the market skyrocketed. I was so depressed that I did not login into my 401k until yesterday. Unbelievably I saw that my account balance had grown by 200k since I last logged in. It turns out that my attempt to get out of the stock market must have failed in some way. I am guessing that auto-rebalancing put me back into the market.

Now the question is, should I get out of the market now or are there legs to this bubble?

Every bubble has legs until it takes a lead pipe to the ankles and explodes.

 

[Darwin333]

They used to here but I was trying to be positive.

Well, I posted something like "Don't flip out. This is OT" at the end of my post and colored it white. On the old forum, it would show up when quoted. Apparently, not any more.

Yes but the point remains, I was feeling all warm and fuzzy inside from the nice thread and then you had to go and throw Trump into it, bastard.

 

[highland145]

Yes but the point remains, I was feeling all warm and fuzzy inside from the nice thread and then you had to go and throw Trump into it, bastard.

O.K., fine. You can have him. Meliania, I'll tend to. Thanks.

 

[Darwin333]

O.K., fine. You can have him. Meliania, I'll tend to. Thanks.

Only if you leave me all your stuff in your will because you ain't gonna last long. It would probably be the most enjoyable way possible for you to go out so fair trade.

 

[highland145]

Only if you leave me all your stuff in your will because you ain't gonna last long. It would probably be the most enjoyable way possible for you to go out so fair trade.

Good Lord, ENGRISH.

Yes, you can has mu stuff if...

 

[John Connor]

It drives me nuts when people say this. Anybody can survive on one income and live like they did back then. You just can't have two/three fancy cars, a big screen tv, eat out every night, everyone in the family can't have a cellphone/tablet/laptop, etc..

Back when woman stayed home they did dishes, laundry, cleaned the house watched kids and cooked. Now we have dishwashers, washers/dryers, kids go to daycare so mom doesn't have to deal with them and we eat out way more/have way easier food to cook.

I don't think so. Yes, there are vices that should be dealt with, but by in large the dollar practically buys a nickel's worth anymore.

My parents own a home, have good credit, no outstanding debt, drive used cars and make 50K in combined income. Yet if both didn't work they'd never make it. My mom doesn't have a cell phone, my dad's is a flip phone from Straight Talk, and bought their TV, etc with cash.

 

[skull]

I don't think so. Yes, there are vices that should be dealt with, but by in large the dollar practically buys a nickel's worth anymore.

My parents own a home, have good credit, no outstanding debt, drive used cars and make 50K in combined income. Yet if both didn't work they'd never make it. My mom doesn't have a cell phone, my dad's is a flip phone from Straight Talk, and bought their TV, etc with cash.

They must be doing something wrong. I only make 30k/yr by myself and own a house, 3 vehicles, have all the gadgets, guns, steak/shrimp/beer in the fridge and money in the bank. Maybe its because I fix everything myself like they used to back in the day. My vehicles are used affordable ones that I fix myself and the only thing I hired out on my house is the roof. Its a fixer upper too.

 

[John Connor]

They must be doing something wrong. I only make 30k/yr by myself and own a house, 3 vehicles, have all the gadgets, guns, steak/shrimp/beer in the fridge and money in the bank. Maybe its because I fix everything myself like they used to back in the day. My vehicles are used affordable ones that I fix myself and the only thing I hired out on my house is the roof. Its a fixer upper too.

Well, what part of the country do you live?

Where I and they live it's expensive. But I'm still sticking with my opinion that it takes two parents to make ends meet. Unless of course you're making bank and what have you. I'm just referring to the middle class.

 

[skull]

Well, what part of the country do you live?

Where I and they live it's expensive. But I'm still sticking with my opinion that it takes two parents to make ends meet. Unless of course you're making bank and what have you. I'm just referring to the middle class.

Rust belt, I don't buy it people just over spend on stuff. Moms always always out buying new clothes, shoes, gadgets, house decorations, furniture and so on. People stay buying useless stuff and complain they're broke. On top of the cars with payments and more house than they need. I don't understand it, I only buy what I need or really want after careful consideration and looking for the best deal new or used.

Take my always broke buddy for instance. He makes enough to support himself. If he wouldn't waste money constantly, like 20oz mountain dews 4 times a day and eat out every meal. He got this small 5k windfall he had been swearing he was going to invest and not spend for months before he got it. 2 days later he had a new motorcycle and no more money. Late on bills within weeks. He just recently got a another 6k same promises week later hes got a fancy SUV and can't pay his bills again. Now hes got another 12k on the way do I give him a month this time?

 

[Thebobo]

How far away are you? The current CAPE is ~30.4 and stock allocations above 70% haven't historically done well with a 4% SWR when the retirement duration is 30 years and CAPE is above 30. Of course some think CAPE is misleading because it is a rolling 10 year metric which includes the 2008 meltdown so there is that. Thats also if you are retiring now. Still there seems to be a lot coming out over the last couple of years that holding your age as a percent in bonds is too conservative and that higher stock allocations might be more appropriate. I haven't looked a ton but between 60-69% stocks seems to be consistently in the "High success" ranges - unless you've already got a ton of $ in which case you may want to consider the additional risk vs reward (that you wouldn't spend anyway)

Probably 1-2 years. I could stay longer, depends on my position. I'm not the most informed when it come to finances it doesn't help that I'm a grade A procrastinator but it's slowly coming. And the Gov has training classes for retirement. BTW another thing you should take at the beginning of being hired not at the end.

 

[snoopy7548]

OP, consider this an extremely lucky lesson in not timing the market. Those people who pulled their stocks during the 2008 recession and stayed out for years royally screwed themselves. If you're comfortable with your asset allocation, just let it ride.

 

[Exterous]

Probably 1-2 years. I could stay longer, depends on my position. I'm not the most informed when it come to finances it doesn't help that I'm a grade A procrastinator but it's slowly coming. And the Gov has training classes for retirement. BTW another thing you should take at the beginning of being hired not at the end.

1-2 years out I would take a pretty hard look at what your allocations are. Its a lot harder to recover from a mistake than when you're 30.