My 2016 Prediction

[Indus]

The older demographic is increasing too.

The younger people joining the voting demographic are greater than the older ones voting.

If what you say was the case, the southern strategy of the GOP would have worked in 2008, and especially in 2012.

 

[bradly1101]

I heard her speech today on Roosevelt Island. I agreed with her points but there was something off in the cadence.

 

[Jhhnn]

I like how Dick Morris classifies Obama's 2012 win as a "squeaker."

Dick Morris sold out long ago. He shills for the Republicans.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Bush VS CLinton.

Bush will win.

Enjoy your democracy.

 

[Jhhnn]

Which is exactly why one of those every other candidates will get elected. Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul will both be characterized as fringe crackpots who are almost certifiably insane. The people who actually vote and wield money/influence will never back them.

Attempts will be made, but neither is fringe. Bernie is representative of progressive Dems & Rand Paul is a doctrinaire modern conservative with a few quirks, less so than his father. As you say, neither will attract the big money in the primaries.

Hillary's Roosevelt Island speech echoes many of Bernie's themes & those of Warren as well. Her potential opponents merely mumble the same worn out lies of trickledown economics & Neocon foreign policy that brought us to this juncture.

 

[yllus]

Benghazi is irrelevant, and will be especially so in 2016.

 

[nextJin]

Which is exactly why one of those every other candidates will get elected. Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul will both be characterized as fringe crackpots who are almost certifiably insane. The people who actually vote and wield money/influence will never back them.

I have very little doubt that Hillary will win the nomination. I also think she will win the election. The Republican candidate pool is a clown car of past failures. Santorum, Perry, Huckabee, and some guy with the last name of Bush who can't deny that his brother was a complete disaster as president.

Hillary's misdeeds, which the Republicans harp on so much, are Benghazi, Whitewater, a private e-mail server, and some other potentially shady stuff. Fox News, Drudge, and WND make a big deal about all of this. Most people don't care. At all. Republicans like to pretend that the Clinton is name is tarnished, but I'm pretty sure at least 50.1% of people still long for the days of Bill Clinton in the White House (compared to any one other person, at least).

My prediction: Not many people will be able to name a Dem candidate other than Hillary. A lot of people will be able to name at least a few of the Republican candidates. Hillary can begin her presidential campaign much earlier than any of the Republicans who will bicker and throw each other under the bus. I give her the best chance of winning at this point.

Oh I agree that's just what I want to see, like Jhhnn said both represent a more true to the core philosophy of their basic principles.

Either we go full democratic socialist or we go more pre evangelical insanity conservatism. Somewhat Goldwater in nature to a point but certainly better than what we have now.

As a libertarian either would be better than any of the other candidates although obviously Rand would certainly be my ideal choice but Bernies foreign policy and social policies would work but economically I completely disagree.

It would just put to rest which way the country honestly wants to go and we could see if either idea actually works.

 

[bradly1101]

Benghazi is irrelevant, and will be especially so in 2016.

Again Benghazi isn't going to be about Benghazi, it's going to be about her emotionality and apparent inability to stay cool under pressure.

 

[tweaker2]

Just out of curiosity for what the Dems really stand for in this day and age, I'd like to see a Sanders/Warren ticket emerge and go up against the most right wing ticket the Repubs can muster.

If the Sanders/Warren ticket wins, these two dyed in the wool Dems will then have a chance to prove if their liberal pedigrees are genuine, or if they too are as corporate owned as Clinton is. Given that the economy under a Sanders/Warren ticket is "probably" going to stay the course as it is at present, I'd really like to see how that plays out, especially if that administration goes after any free trade deals that the Obama admin. gets done beforehand.

If the Repubs win, I'd like to see them throw up a nation-wide effort that mimics what's going on in Kansas at the moment and prove (once and for all?) just what another classic Bush/Cheney type of right wing ideologically inspired economy is really capable of.

 

[MongGrel]

just what another classic Bush/Cheney type of right wing ideologically inspired economy is really capable of.

What, finally killing off what is left of the middle class ?

 

[tweaker2]

What, finally killing off what is left of the middle class ?

lol, Well, I wanted to phrase my post about as neutral as I could get it, but what you mentioned is pretty much how I feel about it, and pretty much a logical conclusion given the irrefutable trends that show how the middle class and poor have for decades been declining economically while an inverse trend is a proven fact for the very rich and powerful.

 

[flexy]

No matter WHO will be your pres, my condolences!

 

[MongGrel]

lol, Well, I wanted to phrase my post about as neutral as I could get it, but what you mentioned is pretty much how I feel about it, and pretty much a logical conclusion given the irrefutable trends that show how the middle class and poor have for decades been declining economically while an inverse trend is a proven fact for the very rich and powerful.

Well said.

 

[umbrella39]

Rick Perry WILL be your next President.

 

[nextJin]

Just out of curiosity for what the Dems really stand for in this day and age, I'd like to see a Sanders/Warren ticket emerge and go up against the most right wing ticket the Repubs can muster.

If the Sanders/Warren ticket wins, these two dyed in the wool Dems will then have a chance to prove if their liberal pedigrees are genuine, or if they too are as corporate owned as Clinton is. Given that the economy under a Sanders/Warren ticket is "probably" going to stay the course as it is at present, I'd really like to see how that plays out, especially if that administration goes after any free trade deals that the Obama admin. gets done beforehand.

If the Repubs win, I'd like to see them throw up a nation-wide effort that mimics what's going on in Kansas at the moment and prove (once and for all?) just what another classic Bush/Cheney type of right wing ideologically inspired economy is really capable of.

I don't think the economy would stay the course, they would raise the income tax to 90% and probably raise the capital gains taxes quite a bit. With either a Paul or Sanders presidency we would see some sort of change good or bad.

 

[dank69]

I don't think the economy would stay the course, they would raise the income tax to 90% and probably raise the capital gains taxes quite a bit. With either a Paul or Sanders presidency we would see some sort of change good or bad.

It's not like the President can just raise taxes. It's still early but I'd imagine the House has a better than even chance of retaining a GOP majority even if the Senate flips. Even if by some miracle the House does flip, I also don't see the Dems getting a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate either.

 

[nextJin]

It's not like the President can just raise taxes. It's still early but I'd imagine the House has a better than even chance of retaining a GOP majority even if the Senate flips. Even if by some miracle the House does flip, I also don't see the Dems getting a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate either.

Agreed but it would be a clear sign of the will of the people if either of them won which way the country is swinging. It would only be a matter of time imo that certain key policies get implemented.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

The Democrats need to turn the Benghazi theme on its head by accusing the Republicans of being more emotionally invested in Benghazi than they are in issues like middle class well being and health care.

The Republicans care much more about Benghazi than they do about fixing our nation's health care problems. What kind of treasonous politicians would care more a small incident thousands of miles away than health care?

 

[nickqt]

The people who own and operate this country will ensure that the Republican and Democratic candidates up for election are acceptable enough to them, so you can strike Paul and Sanders off that list. They are not acceptable.

Who the actual nominees will be is still up for debate, because there's over a year before the actual conventions. Lots of things can happen in a year.

Ultimately, the Republican party has a very uphill battle to 270 electoral votes. They basically have to run the table on every swing state and still carry every red state. Just to squeak by.

Perhaps after enough electoral college losses the Republican party will want to reform them some national election policy, but by then the Democratic party will probably be a lot more comfortable with the electoral college system. Live by the EC, die by the EC.

 

[chowderhead]

The older demographic is increasing too.

It is a fallacy to look at age as a static demographic. People move from one age group to another as they grow older. Age demographics are not static People move into that age group as those in that group die off.
One of the most best indicators of future voting patterns is past voting patterns. If you can get someone to vote for your party's Presidential nominee in 3 straight elections, you have a very good chance of having that voter vote for that party for the rest of their life for President.

Democrats used to lead with seniors. That was the generation that voted for FDR and the new Deal. As they died off, you get the seniors who voted for Eisenhower. This is especially evident in the border/Southern states that used to have "demoasuars" but realigned after all the seniors died off and were replaced by very conservative cohorts. Then a mixture of Kennedy and Nixon. Now you have people that voted Reagan/Bush moving to be seniors. That is a good indicator that the senior cohort is a more conservative and a more Republican voting block. That is why if young people and Hispanics continue to vote 1-2 more times for the Democrats, the Republicans will have a big demographic and generational problem for years to come.

 

[Oyeve]

You fools. Yall think the president controls this country.

 

[tweaker2]

You fools. Yall think the president controls this country.

With the right conditions available for exploitation, yes, the president does. Just ask Bush 43 and the neocons who played him like a champion poker player plays his cards. He took the country to war using 9/11 as a springboard to accomplish and agenda that had nothing to do with 9/11.

That's pretty good control of the country in my book.

 

[Indus]

With the right conditions available for exploitation, yes, the president does. Just ask Bush 43 and the neocons who played him like a champion poker player plays his cards. He took the country to war using 9/11 as a springboard to accomplish and agenda that had nothing to do with 9/11.

That's pretty good control of the country in my book.

Jeb, can we invade Mexico and make it a state already so most of us don't have to pay heating bills? (sarcasm)

 

[pcgeek11]

The demographics have changed..

From Dick Morris:



The next time in 2016, the under 35 vote (people born 1975-1998) will have a greater share than 19% and they think increasingly liberal.

If true we are truly screwed big time.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

The Dems may want to look back to the 2000 and 2004 elections before they get too cocky about 2016. They were claiming that the GOP and conservatives were irrelevant back then as well after 8 years of Billy-boy. Plus, they seem to overlook the likability factor of Hillary which is...not so much.

What it all comes down to is the whim of Independents. They really decide who grabs presidential power, not the elephant or donkey rank and file.