I think, Legend Killer, that what you're saying makes some sense, except that you're ignoring the market underlying the market, the price of and demand for real estate itself. The mortgage securities in question were issued in a time of false demand and were based on unrealistic expectations of further price increases in real estate. That market has reversed itself for a variety of reasons, and shows no signs whatsoever of resurgence. There's no reason for it to do so, given the more stringent lending requirements and new (higher) bottom line for homebuyers. Until such time as legitimate buyers can qualify for loans they can truly afford, prices will recede, and foreclosures increase. Very straightforward. And the value of existing mortgage backed securities will reflect that trend.
Yes, the Fed can restore some liquidity, buy some time, and have moved strongly to do so. Which, unfortunately, affects the world market in other ways- devaluing the dollar and opening the door to inflation. They can't hold rates low forever, simply because the consequences would be too great...
This liquidity crunch didn't happen for no reason at all- it happened because of over leveraging of over valued illiquid assets. And it's just beginning, soon to be followed by CLO's...
I don't have to be a banker to recognize that those who had been buying CDO's at face value (or anything near it) are no longer doing so, and to recognize what that means... nor to understand what happens to those insuring such bonds-
http://online.wsj.com/article/...in_review_and_outlooks
Leverage is good on the way up, but can be lethal on the way down...
Which is not to say that I'm opposed to some sort of orderly unwinding, just that I'm not sure it's a thing that all the parties can survive. We need banks and investment houses and all that goes with it so I'm hoping that it all works out. I'm just trying to be realistic at the same time...
Yes, the Fed can restore some liquidity, buy some time, and have moved strongly to do so. Which, unfortunately, affects the world market in other ways- devaluing the dollar and opening the door to inflation. They can't hold rates low forever, simply because the consequences would be too great...
This liquidity crunch didn't happen for no reason at all- it happened because of over leveraging of over valued illiquid assets. And it's just beginning, soon to be followed by CLO's...
I don't have to be a banker to recognize that those who had been buying CDO's at face value (or anything near it) are no longer doing so, and to recognize what that means... nor to understand what happens to those insuring such bonds-
http://online.wsj.com/article/...in_review_and_outlooks
Leverage is good on the way up, but can be lethal on the way down...
Which is not to say that I'm opposed to some sort of orderly unwinding, just that I'm not sure it's a thing that all the parties can survive. We need banks and investment houses and all that goes with it so I'm hoping that it all works out. I'm just trying to be realistic at the same time...