More comments on the 2008 crash - some perspective

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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Is this close to your view of the 2008 crash: "Banks got greedy and started making loans they shouldn't have, and homebuyers got greedy and took on those loans they shouldn't have, and between the two, the whole thing crashed and the government bailed out the banks on those mortgages. The irresponsible homebuyers were the biggest problem, but the banks were wrong also."

That's a myth.

Before my comments, I get to bring out one of my favorite quotes from John Kennedy:

The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic.

It's a good example and reminder that these myths are so persistent because they are believable and have some bit of truth to them.

Here are some facts, courtesy of "It takes a Pillage", by former Goldman Sachs executive Nomi Prins, who left to fight for reform.

The total of the subprime mortgages in the years leading up to the crash was $1.4 trillion. That's a lot of money. It's the 'bit of truth' basis to the myth.

Here's the thing most don't understand. That was the tip of the iceberg of the problem. Just as the tip of the iceberg is 1/10 of it, the amount the government spent on the banks to save them in the crisis from the subprime mosrtgages was $14 trillion - the mortgages themselves in total value were 10% of the bailout amount.

That's because Wall Street just used the mortgages as the core of products it built on top of them, greaty expanding the amount of money involved and at risk. Actually, given the leverage they used, the actual amount they put at risk from the subprime mortgages was $140 trillion.

So, let's say following the myth at the beginning that the problem was the subprime mortgages. In that case, if every single dollar of every single subprime mortgage was completely zeroed out - which is far more of a loss than they actually were - then in the very worst case the crisis could have been completely solved if the government simply paid the value of all the subprime mortgages - $1.4 trillion. The banks lose nothing, the debt is gone, crisis over.

But that wasn't the case because the mortgages were such a sliver of the problem.

As Nomi Prins points out, the government could have used that same $14 trillion to not just buy 100% of ever subprime mortgage for $1.4 trillion, but also to pay off every residential mortgage in the country, which would have cost $11.9 trillion, and had a trillion dollars left over with which to get everyone without a place to live a place and pay for thier healthcare as well.

That shows the amount of money we're talking about. And it all went to the banks to pay them off not for the bad mortgages but the bad leveraged invetments worth far more.

Even the small amount Congress put in the bill for mortgage relief for homeowners as some small gesture to not give it all to the banks went 90% unused. The people in charge, the Wall Street crowd running treasury and the Fed, did not want to give the money to the homeowners, so they just didn't.

At the time, Elizabeth Warren was Congress' apointee in charge of overseeing the use of TARP funds. The Treasury department largely just ignore her requests for information to hide what they were doing. But she reported that the first $254 of TARP money spent by the governemnt bough $176 billion worth of assets - a $78 billion shortfall.

Hopefully these facts give a bit of perspective on the amounts involved. No offense to the thread on the spending of $60,000 on Star Trek training, but compare the amounts.

But it's in the interests of these Wall Street interests for people to fall for the myth putting so much of the blame on the homebuyers, hiding the real facts, escaping blame.

Note, Wall Street got fees for creating and selling these products - they collected $300 billion in fees alone.

The net effect of the crisis was a 40% loss of the wealth of the middle class while the big banks and billionares ended up far wealthier. Where's the outrage?
 
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Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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I reread your post twice, and I'm still not exactly sure what your thesis is.

A thesis, besides just trying to inform on little-known facts, is that there is a popular myth about the crash where many don't appreciate the actual massive size of the bailout of the banks and how corrupt it was - mentioning how the same amount used to prop up the banks could pay off every residential mortgage in the US and leave a trillion helps fix that.

The myth includes an exaggerated idea of the size of the role of the inappropriate subprime loans, and a lack of appreciation of Wall Street's part.
 
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theevilsharpie

Platinum Member
Nov 2, 2009
2,322
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The bailouts given to Wall Street was made up of loans and assets guarantees, not handouts with no strings attached. Giving away $1 trillion to pay off people's subprime mortgages was never on the table, not because of some vast conspiracy, but because it would've been prohibitively expensive.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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The bailouts given to Wall Street was made up of loans and assets guarantees, not handouts with no strings attached. Giving away $1 trillion to pay off people's subprime mortgages was never on the table, not because of some vast conspiracy, but because it would've been prohibitively expensive.

That info on the amount to pay off the mortgages was to illustrate the relative size of the money used for the bailout, not to say it was a proposed policy.

You don't seem to have appreciated the information to say we couldn't have afforded the mortgage relief - it's the opposite.

It would have been far, far cheaper to provide assistance on the $1.4 trillion in subprime mortgages than the $14 trillion we did put into the banks.

For something closer to a policy option, Prins said that a package of loans for homoeowners could have been done for 3% of the cost of the bailout for similar risk.

As her chapter title said, 'It was never about the little guys'.
 

HendrixFan

Diamond Member
Oct 18, 2001
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I just finished The Big Short a few months back and it went into great detail about how the derivatives helped push the bubble out longer but also significantly increased the risk and loss.

To me, the worst part of the bailout isn't even the cost and sadly isn't the amount of waste/pork built into the deal. It was that we did absolutely nothing to punish those responsible, break up the banks so they are no longer too big to fail, and instead are doing everything we can to pump a new real estate bubble right now.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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I just finished The Big Short a few months back and it went into great detail about how the derivatives helped push the bubble out longer but also significantly increased the risk and loss.

To me, the worst part of the bailout isn't even the cost and sadly isn't the amount of waste/pork built into the deal. It was that we did absolutely nothing to punish those responsible, break up the banks so they are no longer too big to fail, and instead are doing everything we can to pump a new real estate bubble right now.

People need to understand it for what was, the greatest theft from the American people in decades - and the implications about their money owning our government.

That's not well understood. It's just some bad thing that happened that almost no one has any idea about what actually happened. It's the major US event in decades IMO.
 

theevilsharpie

Platinum Member
Nov 2, 2009
2,322
14
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It would have been far, far cheaper to provide assistance on the $1.4 trillion in subprime mortgages than the $14 trillion we did put into the banks.

We didn't give $14 trillion to the banks. $14 trillion was the entire U.S. GDP for 2008, and it's nearly 5 times the as much the entire federal budget for that year.

Where do you come up with this stuff?
 

HendrixFan

Diamond Member
Oct 18, 2001
4,646
0
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We didn't give $14 trillion to the banks. $14 trillion was the entire U.S. GDP for 2008, and it's nearly 5 times the as much the entire federal budget for that year.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/14/financial-crisis-cost-gao_n_2687553.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/bailout-total-29-616-trillion-dollars/

It isn't all printing press, but it is pretty close. We aren't giving banks all that money, we are "buying" all the crap mortgages and derivatives at 100% even though they aren't worth close to that. We take that and put it on our balance sheet so we have an asset for the money we gave out, so it isn't debt.

Of course the assets are nearly worthless, but by printing enough money to cover it all we inflate our way into making some progress into getting values to equal what we paid for them. And there is the problem of wages lagging behind inflation, hurting more people in the process.

At least that is how I have my head wrapped around the whole situation, from what I've read, heard and reasoned.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
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We didn't give $14 trillion to the banks. $14 trillion was the entire U.S. GDP for 2008, and it's nearly 5 times the as much the entire federal budget for that year.

Where do you come up with this stuff?

I'm not saying 'gave' it to them to keep; there was loaning, buying toxic assets, etc.

I googled '$14 trillion bailout' for you to see what quick reference there is online, and here's a link explaining it:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/12/behind-real-size-bailout
 
Dec 30, 2004
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A thesis, besides just trying to inform on little-known facts, is that there is a popular myth about the crash where many don't appreciate the actual massive size of the bailout of the banks and how corrupt it was - mentioning how the same amount used to prop up the banks could pay off every residential mortgage in the US and leave a trillion helps fix that.

The myth includes an exaggerated idea of the size of the role of the inappropriate subprime loans, and a lack of appreciation of Wall Street's part.

wow, that's a lot of mortgages.
 
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/14/financial-crisis-cost-gao_n_2687553.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/bailout-total-29-616-trillion-dollars/

It isn't all printing press, but it is pretty close. We aren't giving banks all that money, we are "buying" all the crap mortgages and derivatives at 100% even though they aren't worth close to that. We take that and put it on our balance sheet so we have an asset for the money we gave out, so it isn't debt.

Of course the assets are nearly worthless, but by printing enough money to cover it all we inflate our way into making some progress into getting values to equal what we paid for them. And there is the problem of wages lagging behind inflation, hurting more people in the process.

At least that is how I have my head wrapped around the whole situation, from what I've read, heard and reasoned.

yes, that is what has happened.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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Another useful fact:

From 2002 to 2005, in the 'housing bubble', the value of homes increased 32%.

During the same period, the value of the companies making those mortgages Wall Street wanted so badly for their derivatives, like Countrywide, increased 300% to 400%.

But the real issue here remains the bottom line, that while the middle class lost 40% of its money, it's been a huge transfer of wealth to the top, who is much wealthier now.

The Crash of 2008 perhaps should be named 'The Great Further Move to Plutocracy in America or How to Redistribute Trillions from the People to the Top 1% Without Revolt'.

93% of the economic recovery going to the top 1%, and the public doesn't understand it.

Meanwhile, all the debate is not about the public getting back their share of any of that wealth transfer, it's about how to roll back entitlements and increase austerity.

Darn the US with its prosperous middle class, standing out from all the good countries like Mexico and other third world countries with plutocracy. But they'll change it.

'Starve the Beast': Use massive government debt to destroy the ability of the government to put large amounts into programs for the public.

It's working like a charm. Haven't you heard we have a massive debt? So we MUST CUT everywhere and anywhere. The sequestration is a good thing.

Oh, low taxes and high tax loopholes for the rich? Have to protect those, the budget must be balanced on the backs of the 99% who have lost so much already.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,018
37
91
But I don't want to fund a Fed that spends massive amounts of money on the public. I at worst want to fund my State to put money back into my State. It seems you are mad that owners/leaders of crazy large companys are rich. And, further mad that the Fed can't spend even more than the insane amounts it already spends. I'd say ideology is the enemy.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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But I don't want to fund a Fed that spends massive amounts of money on the public. I at worst want to fund my State to put money back into my State. It seems you are mad that owners/leaders of crazy large companys are rich. And, further mad that the Fed can't spend even more than the insane amounts it already spends. I'd say ideology is the enemy.

Stop using 'Fed', which is a term for 'The Federal Reserve', to mean 'federal government'.

You are very repetitive in quoting my saying, and not understand that you are the victim of ideology.

You don't understand that. It's a bit like in a society that racism is very strong, the word 'racism' might not even exist, because it describes something they don't acknowledge.

For example, what's the word for being against pedophiila? We don't have one, because that's just 'normal', there isn't enough of a 'pro pedophilia' group to need specific words for each side. On the other hand, we do have a word like 'pacifist' (and a counterpart 'warmonger') to describe groups that exist to discuss them.

In the same way that the examples above mention people who don't need to even discuss another side because they are locked into one viewpoint, you are locked into one.

Which is why you just keep on responding with not understanding and attacks based on false representations of others' positions.

I *want* there to be wealthy people. It's very important both as justice for some things to be rewarded and for our productivity. I'm glad Bill Gates got a lot of money for making something so useful to people andsociety (I'm not sure he should have gotten THAT much, but at least he's put it to good uses).

But because you are narrow-minded about these things, and you can't tell the difference between getting a billion dollars for curing cancer or for causing cancer with the pollution of your activities, when I criticize specific things involving wealth - such as harmful activities that extract wealth from society - you can only understand 'hates the rich'.

It gets a bit old having the same conversation with you over your same mistakes dozens and dozens of times.
 

chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,018
37
91
So have you setup a clearing house where people can check their activities with you on making money before they do them?

And, I never tire of telling you that ideology is the enemy. You are easily one of the most ideological posters on P&N/DC, not even 'your side' would dispute that. So when you try and lecture me about ideology it just brings the lulz. It's like Satan lecturing someone on committing a bad act. :D
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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So have you setup a clearing house where people can check their activities with you on making money before they do them?

So have you, unless you have nothing to say against the business of selling children as sex slaves. Which I won't assume, but hopefully.

I don't think you would support that, you're just so confused that you'll espouse things not understanding the implications of your own statements, like you just did.

The comments I didn't quote are so clueless, confused and insulting there's no other response needed, to keep the decorum here. But you prove my point on ideology.
 
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chucky2

Lifer
Dec 9, 1999
10,018
37
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But I'm not posting spa, er, threads on DC to push my ideology, someone else is. Certainly if they're for people checking with others on their business decisions, they must have setup a system, or at least be in favor of such a system being setup, themselves, no?

The real question to me is who are you expecting to design, setup, and administer such a system?
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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But I'm not posting spa, er, threads

What's that, some attempt to provide yet more insult taking the place of substance?

on DC to push my ideology, someone else is.

You got that backwards. Again, you simply have the perverse views like the people who call opposing bigotry, bigotry. It's tedious. "Yes you are" "No I'm not" over and over and over.

Certainly if they're for people checking with others on their business decisions, they must have setup a system, or at least be in favor of such a system being setup, themselves, no?

The real question to me is who are you expecting to design, setup, and administer such a system?

I don't know what you're talking about.

Are you unfamiliar with the concept of laws saying 'you can't do that'?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
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The 14TR is an utter fabrication of misunderstanding of how things work and really amusing coming from a Goldmanite because his real motivation for using that is to fan the flames of FUDD to sell more books.

If I lent you $100 and you repaid it 2 days later and I re-lent you $100 the next day, did I lend you $100 twice or $200? Do I have $200 at risk or $100?

This is his game and this is what people don't understand.

For example, take CPFF. Quite possibly one of the single most important lending facility of the entire crisis. Without it a $1tr+ market would have died. Not just ABCP but also Corporate CP. On the ABCP side you would have had hundreds of billions of dollars worth of assets that wouldn't have been able to be funded, unless the banks funded it themselves through the Liquidity agreements, but doing that would have resulted in those being funded on bank BS, something very difficult at that time.

ABCP didn't fund just mortgages. It funded small business equipment leases. It funded fleet leases, car loans, farm equipment loans and leases, car loan and leases, trade receivables. All of that market would have evaporated, immediately, had nothing been done.

Was that the fault of the assets? Was it all mortgages? No. It was peripheral knock-on effects.

So what do you do? You create a term financing facility for ABCP and Corp CP (CPFF). The ABCP programs pay a one-time up-front fee, then roll their CP doing periodic times.

A small ABCP conduit may have $5bn in assets that have 90-day tranches that roll every 90 days. That means that over the year that CPFF was in wide use that single conduit generated $15bn of your "14 trillion" in loans. BTW, *ALL* of CPFF was paid back.

Take a bigger ABCP conduit, it may be $15bn, that's $60bn.

Or what about 30-day CP, or overnight? $15bn rolled each night for a month is $450bn. Suddenly your $14TR number makes a lot more sense, eh?


And then you go on about forgiving $1tr in mortgages. So what do you do with the homeowners who don't need forgiving? Do you suddenly just give it to them? What about the ones who took out loans they could afford, and knew it by being conservative, but they don't get a free house? How "right" is it that they didn't buy into the whole thing and now they get punished?

It's so easy to throw out a big number and come up with a ridiculous "save" for the economy without even thinking about what that number means or what the affects are. It's a lot more difficult to actually know what was actually going on and thinking about the Nth order of effects.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
174
106
All I hear is cicadas. Hmmm...

Seems to be so much FUD and misunderstanding about this topic.

My initial response was "crickets'.

The $14T amount should make one suspicious. I googled around after seeing Craig's post and the amounts quoted were all over the place, but most were much lower though.

Then there's the whole "but TARP's been paid back" thing we've heard so often. It ain't paid back if it's $14T.

IIRC, the author in the article mentioned the 'double counting' issue you raise but side stepped it quickly.

Fern
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Seems to be so much FUD and misunderstanding about this topic.

My initial response was "crickets'.

The $14T amount should make one suspicious. I googled around after seeing Craig's post and the amounts quoted were all over the place, but most were much lower though.

Then there's the whole "but TARP's been paid back" thing we've heard so often. It ain't paid back if it's $14T.

IIRC, the author in the article mentioned the 'double counting' issue you raise but side stepped it quickly.

Fern


I know, first hand, how CPFF worked and I know the $14tr number is ridiculous. It wasn't just double but it was quintuple counting, if not more in some cases.

Of course the author did but nobody wants to say "Hey, in any given day we had a lot less risk outstanding and the market would have collapsed if we didn't have have that". Nope, gotta be sensational and throw a big number out to froth the peons up.