More bad news rumors for Fermi

[BenSkywalker]

At $300 the 470 sits between the 5850 and 5870 in both price and performance

So this rumor you believe, but not the benches from the other thread where the 470 is faster then the 5870 60% of the time.

 

[Lonyo]

If we are basing this on rumors, BSN is saying that the 470 will be $299-$349 which based on the rumor benches beats the 5870 more often then it loses. Right now 5850s on the Egg are selling between $315 and $380, 5870s between $410 and $515. If rumors are to be believed, then the 470 is between $60 and $216 cheaper then the board it beats more often then not. Faster performance for $216 less may not be a favor to you, but I think most people would consider it a good deal

Of course, all of this is based on the rumors we have available at face value.

It's a pretty terrible state of affairs when over time ATI can slowly letting their prices creep up. And they are still not under any pressure to switch it and take them down.

$260 to $300 to $310 and $380 to $400 to $410.

Now even if the 470 and 480 come in at prices under current 58xx prices, it won't mean anything. One would assume, given the situation, that AMD will basically be able to slash their prices and still make money.
If it was $260/$380 at launch, then it should be able to hit $250/$350 now, which will just be a nice way to tease NV. But it shows how much NV is required for consumers to do well.

 

[v8envy]

So this rumor you believe, but not the benches from the other thread where the 470 is faster then the 5870 60% of the time.

I didn't see or remember that thread. If this is the case, yes, things change a bit. NV can easily justify a premium over a 5870 due to PhysX (they are now at feature parity with DX11), so a $300 pricepoint would be a bargain.

However, do you really see NV getting into a price war with AMD? AMD's had six months to recoup R&D for themselves and their partners. If yields are as high as TSMC wants everyone to believe then they should have little problems with $260 AR 5870s and $180 AR 5850s. And if they're not good, neither AMD nor NV will have enough cards to fight a price war in the first place.

IMO they're much better off with a much, much higher price point and simply taking advantage of people requiring an NV card at this performance level. Especially if yields are very limited.

 

[tviceman]

You used A4 and fermi 2 in one sentence:


When Fermi 2 comes it will start from A1, ...
There is no A4 of Fermi 2 yet. Let's hope it's not going to take four re-spins.

What I am referring to, when I speak of another spin, is the refresh parts/next major high end geforce release. Whether they respin fermi to improve yields and clocks or do a bigger redesign the architecture, I am referring to the same future product - I just don't happen to know what route they'll take for their next high end single GPU product launch. I am fully aware that Fermi is coming out as A3, and a B1 is coming soon to improve thermals.

 

[tviceman]

If we are basing this on rumors, BSN is saying that the 470 will be $299-$349 which based on the rumor benches beats the 5870 more often then it loses. Right now 5850s on the Egg are selling between $315 and $380, 5870s between $410 and $515. If rumors are to be believed, then the 470 is between $60 and $216 cheaper then the board it beats more often then not. Faster performance for $216 less may not be a favor to you, but I think most people would consider it a good deal

Of course, all of this is based on the rumors we have available at face value.

Even a $349 launch price for the gtx470, IMO, is a win for consumers. It's lower than what most thought it would launch at and it will put pressure on AMD's prices.

 

[cbn]

NV can easily justify a premium over a 5870 due to PhysX (they are now at feature parity with DX11), so a $300 pricepoint would be a bargain.

IMO they're much better off with a much, much higher price point and simply taking advantage of people requiring an NV card at this performance level. Especially if yields are very limited.

How much extra premimum do you think Physx is worth? How many people will want or need Physx to the point where it actually causes change in supply and demand?

 

[shaynoa]

nvidia knows ati is kicking there butt , this is what the hole delay is about ,they know that there two cards can not compete with ati ,,
come on would'nt you be advertising you kick arse product getting people interested in it ,
so why arent they because its crap ,why would'nt you put some reviews out there so people can go wow man look at this thing go ,ive got to have one of these ,
you no why they have'nt done any of this ,why why why ,because its
crap crap crap ,,,,
just my view, i ordered my ati gigabyte 5970 card yesterday being monday here in Australia


the best way to understand what they are doing and why is to ask yourself what would you do ,,think about it

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I don't understand why it was so stupid to think Nvidia's Fermi would be a great deal faster than the GTX295. It *had* more than double the shaders, a new MIMO architecture that's supposed to... I dunno make your dick bigger, and no SLI overhead.

Its the same reason people expected the 5870 to absolutely decimate 2 4890's in crossfire.

 

[RussianSensation]

The problem is, even if GTX 470s have an MSRP of $349, that's not what the market price will be for 1-2 months from launch

As has been said in this thread, the prices of 5xxx series have spun out of proportion. The cheapest 5850 is Gigabyte at $320 on the Egg. That's insane considering this card's MSRP was $259. The cheapest 5870 is now $410 on the Egg. I can't see supply meeting demand at launch for GTX. But $349 would be a good price.

 

[v8envy]

How much extra premimum do you think Physx is worth? How many people will want or need Physx to the point where it actually causes change in supply and demand?

Nobody *needs* PhysX. However, we're talking about a luxury good here -- an enthusiast video card. So any feature the competition doesn't have is justification for better price. How much of one has nothing to do with any price/performance metric and more of what marketing feels the perceived value is. My out-of-the-ass guestimate is NV feels PhysX/3d/Linux support are worth about a 10% premium midrange and a 20-30% at the high end.

 

[v8envy]

I don't understand why it was so stupid to think Nvidia's Fermi would be a great deal faster than the GTX295. It *had* more than double the shaders, a new MIMO architecture that's supposed to... I dunno make your dick bigger, and no SLI overhead.

Its the same reason people expected the 5870 to absolutely decimate 2 4890's in crossfire.

Past performance is a good indicator of future results. In the past, the highest performing part of the new generation was slightly slower than the previous generation's sandwich card. That's why people didn't buy 295+35% in current games predictions for a single Fermi and why we believe the rash of leaked benchmarks showing it roughly equivalent to a 5870.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Didn't Charlie say something along the lines of not all 512 shaders being active a while ago?

If this rumor is true, I think that's fairly telling about Nvidia's yields, isn't it? Nvidia released technical specs a while ago, and the specs showed 512 shaders. Now, Nvidia could spin it that the 512 number is just for Tesla, but if they were getting good yields I would bet that you'd see a GeForce product with 512 shaders as well. Haven't past HPC parts had the same number of enabled shaders as past GeForce parts?

 

[Shmee]

hmm. Of course, to even consider the fermi over 5850/5870, they will have to match it when oced as well. So if they dont clock well, then that is just one more fail.

Say hypothetically, you can only clock the 480 and 470 to say, 110% on stock cooler. Well, a 5850 can OC much further, apparently on par with an OCed 5870. Why would any OCer buy a 480 over a 5850, assuming they don't clock well do to heat/yield problems?

I suppose another way of looking at this is, why buy a 5870 over a 5850? Only answer I can really think of is that the 5870 has better cooling (i think), but I doubt its worth the xtra money.

 

[v8envy]

Considering ATI is using two vias and other workarounds to mitigate transistor variability on the 40nm process and NV isn't on a much larger chip then yes, we really don't need confirmation that "terrible" is a charitable way of describing their full-bodied chip yields.

Yields for slower clocked parts on higher voltage with clusters disabled may still be OK though.

 

[GaiaHunter]

So this rumor you believe, but not the benches from the other thread where the 470 is faster then the 5870 60% of the time.

Those are all benches at 2560x1600 with 8xAA most of the time.

Don't discard the chance of vram bottlenecks.

 

[Meghan54]

There’s good news and bad news; the bad news is that the GTX 400 series has been pushed back to April 6th. The good news is that it’s only in reference to retail supply and not the actual NDA; so come the 26th of March we’ll all know what performance will be.


If you thought that you were going to pick one up retail that day though you where wrong, the original date for stock to be selling was the 29th but now it seems to be April 6th.


This morning we heard that NVIDIA had changed the strategy for sending samples; instead of partners sending them out NVIDIA are taking charge and sending out themselves. We’re not 100% sure why they’re doing this but it could be because NVIDIA doesn’t want any leaks on the results until the 26th. Quite often we see NVIDIA push a driver to us at the last minute and it’s possible that this could happen with the GTX 400 series.


If performance numbers come out on an older driver it’s possible that performance won’t be as good and in turn could seal the fate of the new series before it’s even officially released. Holding cards back from its partners though until launch means that it’s going to take a little longer for the cards to hit retail.


So while it’s not great news in the event you want to pick up a GTX 480 on the 26th it doesn’t change the fact that come 10 days time we’ll know how the model performs.

http://www.shanebaxtor.com/2010/03/16/gtx-400-series-date-pushed-back/

 

[Lonyo]

Nobody *needs* PhysX. However, we're talking about a luxury good here -- an enthusiast video card. So any feature the competition doesn't have is justification for better price. How much of one has nothing to do with any price/performance metric and more of what marketing feels the perceived value is. My out-of-the-ass guestimate is NV feels PhysX/3d/Linux support are worth about a 10% premium midrange and a 20-30% at the high end.

My guess is that it's worth 0% for people who play 90% of games.
It's only worth something if you ever play a game which makes use of it. About 15 games make use of it.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Past performance is a good indicator of future results. In the past, the highest performing part of the new generation was slightly slower than the previous generation's sandwich card. That's why people didn't buy 295+35% in current games predictions for a single Fermi and why we believe the rash of leaked benchmarks showing it roughly equivalent to a 5870.

-Which is understandable when the new arch is merely derivative of the old one (8800 GTX -> GTX280, 3870 -> 4870, 6800 -> 7800) but there was much ballyhoo made about the total re-arch of the GF100 and "experts" were discussing potential 32x efficiency over the traditional SIMD arch and FLOPs out of this world and so on.

Basically Nvidia's new core runneth over with hype, so it see it 6 months late, huge, hot, power hungry and marginally better than ATI's recycled Tera Scale Arch provides quite a gulf between perception, expectation and (seemingly) reality.

 

[cbn]

My guess is that it's worth 0% for people who play 90% of games.
It's only worth something if you ever play a game which makes use of it. About 15 games make use of it.

What sort of Physics does Battlefield Bad Company 2 use?

 

[bunnyfubbles]

hmm. Of course, to even consider the fermi over 5850/5870, they will have to match it when oced as well. So if they dont clock well, then that is just one more fail.

Say hypothetically, you can only clock the 480 and 470 to say, 110% on stock cooler. Well, a 5850 can OC much further, apparently on par with an OCed 5870. Why would any OCer buy a 480 over a 5850, assuming they don't clock well do to heat/yield problems?

I suppose another way of looking at this is, why buy a 5870 over a 5850? Only answer I can really think of is that the 5870 has better cooling (i think), but I doubt its worth the xtra money.

IIRC, the reference cooler for the 5870 has 4 heatpipes, the 5850 has 2. Granted, aftermarket cooling can easily trump either cooler and isn't that expensive, particularly when considering the OCers who grabbed the 5850 @ its original $259.99 MSRP had that much more room to invest in cooling.

nVidia is in a seriously bad spot if all they can do is offer competitive pricing, because right now AMD is enjoying the luxury of being able to inflate their own prices. As soon as Fermi hits the market, whats to stop AMD from undercutting them with price cuts? The 5850 back at its original $259 MSRP or lower as well as the 5870 with plenty of room to drop would be a major blow for nVidia.

 

[Headfoot]

Which isn't really good news for consumers if currently leaked benchmarks are accurate. Especially since that bar is currently set at between $325-$500.

Please explain how approximately ~5870 level performance for less than 5870 price is bad for consumers.

 

[lavaheadache]

nvidia knows ati is kicking there butt , this is what the hole delay is about ,they know that there two cards can not compete with ati ,,
come on would'nt you be advertising you kick arse product getting people interested in it ,
so why arent they because its crap ,why would'nt you put some reviews out there so people can go wow man look at this thing go ,ive got to have one of these ,
you no why they have'nt done any of this ,why why why ,because its
crap crap crap ,,,,
just my view, i ordered my ati gigabyte 5970 card yesterday being monday here in Australia


the best way to understand what they are doing and why is to ask yourself what would you do ,,think about it

Woah buddy!!!! I'm certainly not any kind of literary genius, but this post takes the cake for one of the most poorly written as of late.

This does not bode well for our education systems

 

[cbn]

nVidia is in a seriously bad spot if all they can do is offer competitive pricing, because right now AMD is enjoying the luxury of being able to inflate their own prices. As soon as Fermi hits the market, whats to stop AMD from undercutting them with price cuts? The 5850 back at its original $259 MSRP or lower as well as the 5870 with plenty of room to drop would be a major blow for nVidia.

With Fermi being 8x better than GT200 on double precision Nvidia will no doubt make some good profits on the HPC side of things.

The question in my mind is why are they even selling Fermi to gamers? I would think only the leftovers would spillover to GeForce? Good sized profits through HPC sales could easily allow Nvidia to soldier on with High research and development budgets (even if GeForce Margins are thin).

P.S. Is HPC (using Nvidia cards) still a small market?

 

[Headfoot]

nVidia is in a seriously bad spot if all they can do is offer competitive pricing, because right now AMD is enjoying the luxury of being able to inflate their own prices

This is absolutely hilarious. NO ONE said this about ATI when the GTX 280 and 260 came out and ATI had nothing. Then when the 4870 and 4850 came out EVERYONE loved it because it was competitive on price.

The point is being competitive on price is the ONLY thing that matters for the majority of non-ultra high end enthusiasts.

 

[sxr7171]

This is absolutely hilarious. NO ONE said this about ATI when the GTX 280 and 260 came out and ATI had nothing. Then when the 4870 and 4850 came out EVERYONE loved it because it was competitive on price.

The point is being competitive on price is the ONLY thing that matters for the majority of non-ultra high end enthusiasts.

Yeah I'll be happy if the ATI stuff goes back to launch prices.