More bad news for Mittens: ADP jobs numbers and new unemployment claims

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
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158,000 jobs added at US companies, nearly double the 88,000 that had been expected.

Last months figures revised up to 114,000 from 88,000

363,000 initial jobless claims, 6,000 lower than expected

Manufacturing expanded faster than expected...

Damn, so if the BLS report tomrrow is in line with this, it's pretty much game over for Romney, isn't it?
 

Jimzz

Diamond Member
Oct 23, 2012
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No he will say under him it would have been double... then added some more BS that he will get called out for flip flopping on before.
 

Dulanic

Diamond Member
Oct 27, 2000
9,967
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Mittens would have added 5 million. I know this because he ran a company and ran a business. That means all he says is true.
 

her209

No Lifer
Oct 11, 2000
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Mittens will say government doesn't create jobs. Then he will say under his administration, he will add 10 million jobs to the economy by his 4th year.
 

woolfe9999

Diamond Member
Mar 28, 2005
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I expect a reasonably good jobs report tomorrow, but doubt it will have much impact. That said, there is a slight upward trend for Obama right now in the polls. I don't think this can hurt. Any further movement in favor of Obama, even very small, is intolerable for Romney given the current poll numbers.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
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What are you talking about bad news for mittens? Mittens dont care about how many jobs are created, and it sounds like you dont either. What is the point to your stupidity? Are you proud of the fact that this regime has seen job growth that has not even come close to matching population growth? For the first time in decades the employment rate is falling. Even on the back of trillions in borrowing. It is almost unfathomable how inept the policies are that resulted in this.

You should be ashamed for this country since it cannot see past this system enough to actually elect someone who will do more than borrow trillions and give it to the rich on frickin wall street, and pass every boondoggle legislation that hands even more money (or power) to globalist corporations hellbent on flushing this country down the toilet. They are doing a fine job, as evinced by the pettiness in this thread. Sheer utter pathetic pettiness, in the face of what can best be described as total war. You have no idea what you're dealing with. You think you win something if obama wins? No, you dont win jack. Nothing good comes from it.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
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I expect a reasonably good jobs report tomorrow, but doubt it will have much impact. That said, there is a slight upward trend for Obama right now in the polls. I don't think this can hurt. Any further movement in favor of Obama, even very small, is intolerable for Romney given the current poll numbers.

I agree, I don't think it will be a big shift, but to your point any shift toward Obama at this point is a big problem for Romney. The economy is still Obama's weakest area, and a good jobs report makes him less vulnerable on that front.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
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ADP has revised it's methodogy, but I think it still might be a (strong?) upside surprise: http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow...port-shows-private-sector-jobs-up-158000.aspx


Morningstar Video Commentary: http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=573203


Historic Forecasting Errors and Revisions:

OB-UM272_jobsch_P_20120907152424.jpg


OB-UM275_jobcha_P_20120907152801.jpg


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...-report-isnt-as-bad-as-it-looks/?mod=yahoo_hs



Gallup Preview: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadjusted-unemployment-mid-october.aspx (their previous month commenary, too: http://behavioraleconomy.gallup.com/2012/10/time-to-replace-unemployment-rate.html)
"U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.3% in mid-October, down considerably from 7.9% at the end of September and at a new low since Gallup began collecting employment data in January 2010. Gallup's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 7.7%, also down from September. October's adjusted mid-month measure is also more than a percentage point lower than October 2011."

0ifue-mpz0-f1vk2eurmea.gif


And trend towards employers using more part-time workers has been occuring for a few decades:
"While there have always been part-time workers, especially at restaurants and retailers, employers today rely on them far more than before as they seek to cut costs and align staffing to customer traffic. This trend has frustrated millions of Americans who want to work full-time, reducing their pay and benefits.

“Over the past two decades, many major retailers went from a quotient of 70 to 80 percent full-time to at least 70 percent part-time across the industry,” said Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director of the Strategic Resource Group, a retail consulting firm.

No one has collected detailed data on part-time workers at the nation’s major retailers. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has found that the retail and wholesale sector, with a total of 18.6 million jobs, has cut a million full-time jobs since 2006, while adding more than 500,000 part-time jobs.

Technology is speeding this transformation. In the past, part-timers might work the same schedule of four- or five-hour shifts every week. But workers’ schedules have become far less predictable and stable. Many retailers now use sophisticated software that tracks the flow of customers, allowing managers to assign just enough employees to handle the anticipated demand.

“Many employers now schedule shifts as short as two or three hours, while historically they may have scheduled eight-hour shifts,” said David Ossip, founder of Dayforce, a producer of scheduling software used by chains like Aéropostale and Pier One Imports.

Some employers even ask workers to come in at the last minute, and the workers risk losing their jobs or being assigned fewer hours in the future if they are unavailable."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/part-time-life-hours-shrink-142806402.html




Morningstar analyst Bob Johnson has also previously speculated that companies may have gotten too cautious in August, and had to scramble after the fact to meet demand (i. e. consumer kept spending (http://news.morningstar.com/all/dow...1025/000487/us-consumer-confidence-rises.aspx), even if corporations got overly cautious because of rhetoric on tv and uncertainties still lingering around the world). Spike in Challenger Gray layoff report might reflect overseas job cuts more so than new domestic ones.

Don't think tomorrow's number or unemployment rate will change any minds, because depending upon who you support, the numbers are either real, or the books are cooked...
 
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Londo_Jowo

Lifer
Jan 31, 2010
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londojowo.hypermart.net
158,000 jobs added at US companies, nearly double the 88,000 that had been expected.

Last months figures revised up to 114,000 from 88,000

363,000 initial jobless claims, 6,000 lower than expected

Manufacturing expanded faster than expected...

Damn, so if the BLS report tomrrow is in line with this, it's pretty much game over for Romney, isn't it?

Are you sure having 200k more initial jobless
claims than new jobs added is good news?
 

buckshot24

Diamond Member
Nov 3, 2009
9,916
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Mittens will say government doesn't create jobs. Then he will say under his administration, he will add 10 million jobs to the economy by his 4th year.
This is a pretty dishonest complaint. You know exactly what he means by saying government doesn't create jobs.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
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This is a pretty dishonest complaint. You know exactly what he means by saying government doesn't create jobs.

So how is that a criticism of the current administration when they have been decreasing public sector jobs?
 

SheHateMe

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2012
7,251
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Imma add 12 million jerbs when I get in The White House....

Gobment doesn't create jerbs...
 
Jan 25, 2011
17,056
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Are you sure having 200k more initial jobless
claims than new jobs added is good news?

People lose their jobs every day and file jobless claims. Doesn't mean the jobs themselves were eliminated. The 200k is new jobs that did not previously exist.
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
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Were in all these reports does it say how many people retired? without that number these other numbers are meaningless. Replacing a retired worker is not a new job its a new employee replacing a retired one . Yes its a new job to the worker but payroll should go down as new employees start at lower wages than retiring employees
 

Nemesis 1

Lifer
Dec 30, 2006
11,366
2
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People lose their jobs every day and file jobless claims. Doesn't mean the jobs themselves were eliminated. The 200k is new jobs that did not previously exist.

300,000 people retire every month. show were they use that number . they count it as a new job . but it adds 300,000 more to the gooberment SS program each and every month for the forseeable future. NOT good
 

hardhat

Senior member
Dec 4, 2011
434
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300,000 people retire every month. show were they use that number . they count it as a new job . but it adds 300,000 more to the gooberment SS program each and every month for the forseeable future. NOT good

Please provide evidence that ADP counts people retiring and being replaced in the workforce as a new job. It certainly doesn't sound like they do anything of the sort in their methodology:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/docs/ADP-NER-Methodology-Full-Detail.pdf
"ADP’s weekly files: number of employees, frequency of payment,​
processing date of
payment, industry and location of establishment (where payrolls are processed), and

whether the establishment is active or terminated"