I could see Romney winning the primaries.
skip Iowa (where the religious fundies have an outsized influence) and hope that fringe candidates fracture the vote there (Bachmann, Santorum, Ron Paul), pick up New Hampshire + Nevada, have a strong showing in South Carolina, and then hope the momentum propels him towards some big Super Tuesday pickups.
he might not be able to carry the deep south in the primaries, but that won't matter if he wins the Northeast and West. who are they going to vote for in the general election, Obama? 48% of the country is going to vote for the candidate who has an R next to his/her name regardless of who the actual person is.
much like McCain, he'll need a VP candidate who can appeal to the base in a general election.
really, though, the 2012 is pretty lackluster. unseating a sitting president is hard -- it's what, like 5 presidents ever that have lost their reelection campaigns? it's rough to compete against a guy who gets to have Air Force One fly him anywhere in the world at the drop of a hat, has "Hail to the Chief" playing in the background whenever he walks into a room, and gets to speak from behind the seal of the president.
I'd imagine that any Republican who's already got a job and is young enough to still be relevant in 2016 will be sitting out this year.
skip Iowa (where the religious fundies have an outsized influence) and hope that fringe candidates fracture the vote there (Bachmann, Santorum, Ron Paul), pick up New Hampshire + Nevada, have a strong showing in South Carolina, and then hope the momentum propels him towards some big Super Tuesday pickups.
he might not be able to carry the deep south in the primaries, but that won't matter if he wins the Northeast and West. who are they going to vote for in the general election, Obama? 48% of the country is going to vote for the candidate who has an R next to his/her name regardless of who the actual person is.
much like McCain, he'll need a VP candidate who can appeal to the base in a general election.
really, though, the 2012 is pretty lackluster. unseating a sitting president is hard -- it's what, like 5 presidents ever that have lost their reelection campaigns? it's rough to compete against a guy who gets to have Air Force One fly him anywhere in the world at the drop of a hat, has "Hail to the Chief" playing in the background whenever he walks into a room, and gets to speak from behind the seal of the president.
I'd imagine that any Republican who's already got a job and is young enough to still be relevant in 2016 will be sitting out this year.
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