Miners might target Nvidia Maxwell next

[3DVagabond]

It's more like, Cards come into vendor A who sells cards at or near MSRP. Someone sees it and posts here that supplier has cards at reasonable prices. 8 gamers go to the site to each buy a card or maybe 2. Before they get there though a miner comes along and buys every one the site has.

 

[ocre]

Very simple, nvidia sells 2 gpus per every one amd sales. This is from the latest marketshare data, real figures. No one bought nvidia cards for mining, no one. This is all u need to see that there are far more people buying gpus for gaming vs mining. To say otherwise is far far fetched. I did not say far more people are buying amd cards for gaming, so pay attention. Its not that hard to get.

As for that, the data points the other way. But we say that every amd card is sold for mining, it would still be true that far more ppl bought gpus from nvidia, which wouldnt be for mining. Also consider that nvidia grew market share. This is in support of amd having a supply issue not that more gpus are selling cause of mining. As we get more data, the picture should come into focus. But feom the data put today all one can conclude is.....
Yes, yes. Far more gpus are sold for gaming

 

[KingFatty]

Can you provide more information about sales of discrete GPUs?

The data I could find shows AMD has a larger market share than Nvidia, but I can't tell if they are mixing laptops and integrated GPUs here - that could throw things off:

Notice how AMD has 18.3% and Nvidia has 16.6%, overall. That is in contrast to the *changes* in percent for each company mentioned in the article, but depending on the math and what percentage of these totals are discrete vs integrated vs laptop, I could see either company coming out ahead in terms of who sells more discrete video cards? The data is probably available somewhere, I'm interested in that.

See: http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch/

Can anyone find actual numbers for discrete GPU sales of AMD vs Nvidia? Data that excludes the integrated and laptop GPUs? That way I think we can see what effect the miners have, because they would only be interested in buying AMD discrete video cards, and not laptops or integrated graphics, I think.

 

[Qwertilot]

That massive market share to Intel should be rather indicative that those figures are counting integrated graphics

 

[ShintaiDK]

Can you provide more information about sales of discrete GPUs?

The data I could find shows AMD has a larger market share than Nvidia, but I can't tell if they are mixing laptops and integrated GPUs here - that could throw things off:

Notice how AMD has 18.3% and Nvidia has 16.6%, overall. That is in contrast to the *changes* in percent for each company mentioned in the article, but depending on the math and what percentage of these totals are discrete vs integrated vs laptop, I could see either company coming out ahead in terms of who sells more discrete video cards? The data is probably available somewhere, I'm interested in that.

See: http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch/

Can anyone find actual numbers for discrete GPU sales of AMD vs Nvidia? Data that excludes the integrated and laptop GPUs? That way I think we can see what effect the miners have, because they would only be interested in buying AMD discrete video cards, and not laptops or integrated graphics, I think.

Discrete GPU:

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-up-in-q4-nvidia-gains-market-share/

 

[KingFatty]

Discrete GPU:

http://jonpeddie.com/press-releases/details/add-in-board-market-up-in-q4-nvidia-gains-market-share/

That looks more specific, but the article seems to suggest these are pre-installed or that the data also includes workstation/professional type applications?

AIBs are used in desktop PCs, workstations, servers, and other devices such as scientific instruments.

GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market because a GPU goes into every system before it is shipped; most of the PC vendors are guiding down to flat for the next quarter.

But ultimately, according to that data, AMD shipped fewer discrete video cards quarter-to-quarter. So I guess miners did not increase the number of AMD video cards sold, and instead were *LESS* interested in buying AMD video cards?:

AMD’s quarter-to-quarter total desktop AIB unit shipments decreased 3%

 

[tweakboy]

Try a workstation card.

Play games and enjoy your card. Instead of abusing it with benchies and numbers. Take a deep breath ,, and play a game and enjoy your card. gl

 

[ocre]

This is aib data which would include all add in vga cards. Everything from oem systems to gpus bought online, all counted. What is important is the trend. Amd has yet to show any large surge in sales or marketshare since cripto mining. There is just no way that there could be more miner gpus vs gamers as the data does not suppprt this. I would not doubt that amd is selling more and more of their gpus to miners because of the pricing, but the data suggest that they have a supply issue as their cards sell out while loosing total marketshare.

Also, nvidia is growing in both marketshare and sales. This is in a shrinking market. My guess is nvidia is picking up more of the gamers that would have bought amd but went nvidia due to prices. You can seethere isnt a huge amount of miner gpus. Even if every amd card sold is used for mining, there would be far more nvidia gpus sold. Overall, combined the dgpu grew 10%. That is all i can give to the mining surge. And that is all i would give. But this isnt known, could be less. Pc gaming interest may have gone up a bit. We dont know. But either way, nvidia gained those sales. Amd was shipping less cards

 

[KingFatty]

I wish there were tracking for the data on *only* the discrete video cards that are sold at retail in a box, like what a gamer would buy at the store to install in an existing machine. But from what it looks like, nobody publishes or collects this bit of information? They just mix it in with the other sales?

 

[MrK6]

This discussion is pointless. You guys are trying to deduce what a minute market segment is doing based upon gross sales figures, it's impractical at best.

For example:

This is aib data which would include all add in vga cards. Everything from oem systems to gpus bought online, all counted. What is important is the trend. Amd has yet to show any large surge in sales or marketshare since cripto mining. There is just no way that there could be more miner gpus vs gamers as the data does not suppprt this. I would not doubt that amd is selling more and more of their gpus to miners because of the pricing, but the data suggest that they have a supply issue as their cards sell out while loosing total marketshare.

Miners and gamers are interested in totally different GPU purposes. Miners are looking at buying the enthusiast-tier hardware, which historically is 1% or less of either manufacturer's volume. AMD could double its sales there and it wouldn't really make much of a dent in its volume or marketshare. Even "gamers" are a small subset of the total market, there's no way to accurately generalize who is buying what from such weak data.

 

[Keysplayr]

It's very very simple.
Mining drives up AMD GPU prices to ludicrous levels almost all across the 7xxx series through the R9 series. For a miner, it's no biggie because it's looked at as an investment. Right?
For a gamer, it's a big disappointment because they know what they should be paying for the card that they want and not these exhorbitant prices. So what do they do? They don't buy the AMD card. This may explain why AMD actually went down a few percent. Their GPU's pricing is a deterrent to potential buyers. Instead they will look to Nvidia and pay what they feel they should be paying for the given level of performance they expect.

Now, you can disagree with this idea all you want. Doesn't matter. I think the numbers do speak for themselves.
Yes, AMD has sold a truckload of GPUs to miners.
And Yes, I think they have actually turned away more gamers than they gained in miners.
So while it may look good, AMD being able to collect a hefty sum for a GPU, it actually hurts them subtracting from their gamer numbers.

" Miners are looking at buying the enthusiast-tier hardware, which historically is 1% or less of either manufacturer's volume."

Really? Nobody is buying 78xx series mainstream cards to mine? Only 290/X ish? Doesn't appear that way and certainly miners are not interested in only the top 1% top end tier hardware.

 

[ShintaiDK]

So while it may look good, AMD being able to collect a hefty sum for a GPU

Remember, AMD didnt get a dime from the increased US/CA prices at those retail outlets that did the extreme pricing.

I am surprised that AMD havent done anything about it and threaten with sanctions for example. Because its hurting their image bigtime.

 

[MrK6]

It's very very simple.
Mining drives up AMD GPU prices to ludicrous levels almost all across the 7xxx series through the R9 series. For a miner, it's no biggie because it's looked at as an investment. Right?
For a gamer, it's a big disappointment because they know what they should be paying for the card that they want and not these exhorbitant prices. So what do they do? They don't buy the AMD card. This may explain why AMD actually went down a few percent. Their GPU's pricing is a deterrent to potential buyers. Instead they will look to Nvidia and pay what they feel they should be paying for the given level of performance they expect.

Evidently it's not so simply because this post just shows a complete misunderstanding of the numbers and statistics in general. Discrete markets cover everything from entry level all the way up to flagship, with an exponential decrease in sales volume as one moves upwards through the tiers. Even being completely ignorant of how the GPU market works, you could still do simple math and realize your explanation makes little sense.

Now, you can disagree with this idea all you want. Doesn't matter. I think the numbers do speak for themselves.
Yes, AMD has sold a truckload of GPUs to miners.
And Yes, I think they have actually turned away more gamers than they gained in miners.
So while it may look good, AMD being able to collect a hefty sum for a GPU, it actually hurts them subtracting from their gamer numbers.

AMD hardware is sold out everywhere. It doesn't matter who buys it as long as it's sold, which is what these numbers are also showing. No company holds on to hardware for giggles because it's lost profits. Also, if it wasn't selling, prices would drop. Again, your conjectures show a complete ignorance of basic business and economics.

" Miners are looking at buying the enthusiast-tier hardware, which historically is 1% or less of either manufacturer's volume."

Really? Nobody is buying 78xx series mainstream cards to mine? Only 290/X ish? Doesn't appear that way and certainly miners are not interested in only the top 1% top end tier hardware.

But you just said that miners wouldn't be opposed to buying enthusiast-tier hardware since they can still turn a profit, so which is it? Are you also ignorant on the basics of mining as well? This is why it's too bad stahlhart removed all of Erenhardt's testing as it was probably the most redeeming feature of this thread.

Posts restored.
-- stahlhart

 

[Rezist]

I think the Mt.Gox issues should drop the prices for AMD cards atleast for a while.

 

[Artorias]

So is this generation of R9's a write off with the prices where they are at? Am I right to assume these prices wont go back to normal levels until the next series of AMD GPU's and or NVDIA's counter card?

It now seems like a waste of time and money for me buy into these series of cards for gaming, might as wait for real new cards instead of rebrands.

I think the Mt.Gox issues should drop the prices for AMD cards at least for a while.

I did notice the day Mt.Gox flopped R9280X's dropped from the wonderful price of $599 to $519 over at Newegg.

 

[ShintaiDK]

So is this generation of R9's a write off with the prices where they are at? Am I right to assume these prices wont go back to normal levels until the next series of AMD GPU's and or NVDIA's counter card?

It now seems like a waste of time and money for me buy into these series of cards for gaming, might as wait for real new cards instead of rebrands.




I did notice the day Mt.Gox flopped R9280X's dropped from the wonderful price of $599 to $519 over at Newegg.

You can usually find it on amazon now and then for MSRP. Else you can just shop almost anywhere but US/CA and buy it at MSRP or below. As long as the retailers you shop at does as they do. Simply put your money elsewhere and boycott them for good.

 

[Artorias]

You can usually find it on amazon now and then for MSRP. Else you can just shop almost anywhere but US/CA and buy it at MSRP or below. As long as the retailers you shop at does as they do. Simply put your money elsewhere and boycott them for good.

Most local retailers are sold out in the T dot(Toronto), otherwise you still find $100-$150 markups.

 

[Keysplayr]

Evidently it's not so simply because this post just shows a complete misunderstanding of the numbers and statistics in general. Discrete markets cover everything from entry level all the way up to flagship, with an exponential decrease in sales volume as one moves upwards through the tiers. Even being completely ignorant of how the GPU market works, you could still do simple math and realize your explanation makes little sense.
AMD hardware is sold out everywhere. It doesn't matter who buys it as long as it's sold, which is what these numbers are also showing. No company holds on to hardware for giggles because it's lost profits. Also, if it wasn't selling, prices would drop. Again, your conjectures show a complete ignorance of basic business and economics.

But you just said that miners wouldn't be opposed to buying enthusiast-tier hardware since they can still turn a profit, so which is it? Are you also ignorant on the basics of mining as well? This is why it's too bad stahlhart removed all of Erenhardt's testing as it was probably the most redeeming feature of this thread.

Posts restored.
-- stahlhart

As expected, you either mistook me, or took me out of context. Whatever.

 

[KingFatty]

Well I still feel like very large pieces of the puzzle are missing, because I'm so ignorant of the actual numbers of sales etc.

I guess it's just assumed that the enthusiast cards, which miners want to buy, are such a small fraction of the collected sales information, that even if such sales doubled or tripled, that data would be lost in the sea of other non-enthusiast sales. So we simply cannot determine that information.

But Keys brings up a good point about the data showing something at least - it shows the data is shifting to Nvidia cards. Now how can this be? We are assuming that sales of enthusiast cards are obscured, so we must be seeing movement at the lower mass-sales tiers of video cards that your average non-enthusiast would buy, at least I think?

Why would those people shift to Nvidia, when their market is not affected by increased pricing of AMD flagship/enthusiast cards?

Is this some kind of halo effect, where the average buyer is turned off altogether based on pricing of top-tier products, and so switches allegiance when they buy their average product that is much lower priced?

I dunno, I just find this kind of speculation fascinating, but I don't see what choice there is because there are no facts to show this level of detail?

Just the contradiction between the two principles that 1) the data we have shows a trend toward Nvidia, but 2) that trend shows up based on mass-sales of lower-tier video cards that are *not* affected by mining insanity/pricing.

I don't know how to reconcile item 1 with item 2, unless it's a weird reverse-halo or hatred effect? (apologies if I'm misusing the proper marketing/economic terms, my college training is not in economics or marketing).

 

[hungtran]

There's this common perception that AMD GPUs and CPUs are trash. I see comments all the time that AMD can't make drivers right, their products run hot and crash systems, and the top-tier AMD CPUs can't hold a candle to bottom-tier Intel i3s in single threaded performance, where things count. There's a stigma AMD has about it that no one wants to buy a computer with AMD CPUs or GPUs. Even Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and Apple try hard to downplay the fact that they use AMD products. I think AMD goes for $/performance, but that lack of performance damages their brand so much that people shell out more money for less $/performance going with Nvidia just to not have to buy trashy AMD products. AMD really needs to come up with a performance line and name it something other than AMD.

 

[Keysplayr]

There's this common perception that AMD GPUs and CPUs are trash. I see comments all the time that AMD can't make drivers right, their products run hot and crash systems, and the top-tier AMD CPUs can't hold a candle to bottom-tier Intel i3s in single threaded performance, where things count. There's a stigma AMD has about it that no one wants to buy a computer with AMD CPUs or GPUs. Even Microsoft, Sony, Samsung and Apple try hard to downplay the fact that they use AMD products. I think AMD goes for $/performance, but that lack of performance damages their brand so much that people shell out more money for less $/performance going with Nvidia just to not have to buy trashy AMD products. AMD really needs to come up with a performance line and name it something other than AMD.

A futile effort. People would find out rather quickly that whatever the name is, it is ultimately created by AMD. Back to square one. Might as well save the advertising and box art cost and stay where they are.

 

[hungtran]

I just think they need to distance themselves from the AMD of pre-2013. There's too much baggage in the name to escape from. And the GF WSA is killing them slowly.

 

[daxzy]

Back to Maxwell...

Anyone have a roadmap of when the higher end Maxwell cards are launching?

 

[ocre]

Well I still feel like very large pieces of the puzzle are missing, because I'm so ignorant of the actual numbers of sales etc.

I guess it's just assumed that the enthusiast cards, which miners want to buy, are such a small fraction of the collected sales information, that even if such sales doubled or tripled, that data would be lost in the sea of other non-enthusiast sales. So we simply cannot determine that information.

But Keys brings up a good point about the data showing something at least - it shows the data is shifting to Nvidia cards. Now how can this be? We are assuming that sales of enthusiast cards are obscured, so we must be seeing movement at the lower mass-sales tiers of video cards that your average non-enthusiast would buy, at least I think?

Why would those people shift to Nvidia, when their market is not affected by increased pricing of AMD flagship/enthusiast cards?

Is this some kind of halo effect, where the average buyer is turned off altogether based on pricing of top-tier products, and so switches allegiance when they buy their average product that is much lower priced?

I dunno, I just find this kind of speculation fascinating, but I don't see what choice there is because there are no facts to show this level of detail?

Just the contradiction between the two principles that 1) the data we have shows a trend toward Nvidia, but 2) that trend shows up based on mass-sales of lower-tier video cards that are *not* affected by mining insanity/pricing.

I don't know how to reconcile item 1 with item 2, unless it's a weird reverse-halo or hatred effect? (apologies if I'm misusing the proper marketing/economic terms, my college training is not in economics or marketing).

where is the data to back up such claims? don't take any of that as fact. It is just left over from the doom and gloom attempts back when nvidia was exiting the chipset biz and Intel was talking about getting into the hd integrated into their cpus. Back then there was all kind of talks about how nvidia was doomed because 90% of their income comes from their 50$ GPUs. That business was big for them at the time but since then the discrete gpu has been growing while the rest of pc shrinks. PC gaming has been growing and it is not just in the entry level chips. nwith Kepler nvidia's margins have climbed sky high and this is because they are selling more and more high margin chips. The gk104 was hugely popular, there is data all around to support this.
if you go by what you replied to it doesn't make a lot of sense, as your conclusion shows you already know. Of course less people buy a 780ti or 290 than will buy a 750ti, but by how much we don't know. but there is no way that all the AMD cards that's have seen prices inflated don't add up to anything. that is absolutely the most ridiculous thing I have read today. it's 90% of all the dgpus they sale.
I tend to believe they amount to something. and even if the low end out sales the high end, all the cards inflated would be a significant portion. don't listen to anyone claiming otherwise

i think the steam surveys and nvidia gross margins are enough to see that this increase in discrete gpus Jon peddie keeps seeing Q after Q is not just in the lowest of the low. nvidia is completely getting pushed out of that area and as they do their margins are going up. that's should tell you something. t

 

[ShintaiDK]

Back to Maxwell...

Anyone have a roadmap of when the higher end Maxwell cards are launching?

No roadmap. The higher cards are 20nm based. So expect Q4 2014.