Microsoft cell phone

[Rottie]

Do you guys think microsfot will ever made a new cell phone in the future tryning to kill apple iPhone just like what Microsoft did with zine?

 

[shortylickens]

Probably. Someday. They seem to be losing ground with their mobile OS. They havent had any real changes in quite a while. Either they will give up mobile stuff entirely or come back strong with a new mobile OS and new media & communication devices to put it on.

 

[pm]

The strategy with Apple has always been unified hardware and software. You buy the device and it comes as a closed software eco-system controlled by Apple.

The strategy with Microsoft has - until recently - been that they sell the software that works on many different hardware platforms.

The Zune and the XBox360 seem to be steps by Microsoft towards something similar to the Apple model - which is more than a bit ironic given the history of the two companies. I think Microsoft will continue to pursue both strategies - with the Zune/Xbox and Windows Mobile and will see how things play out. If they release a zunePhone hardware/software stack, then they will effectively kill their entire Windows Mobile market because they will then be competing directly with their OS customers.

WM 6.5 will appear in a month or two on new phones and should be a better user experience, and then next years WM 7.0 (Photon) will tie a Zune-like experience with Windows Mobile.

Microsoft has always been a reasonably pragmatic company - by which I mean that if they see that they are losing the mobile OS war massively to Apple they will leverage their Zune/Xbox business to compete head-to-head with a zunePhone. They have never struck me as a company who stubornly hold out to the bitter end when their strategy isn't working. But I think they are still doing well enough and have a solid roadmap to compete against Apple and Google that they shouldn't canabilize their mobile OS business by releasing a zPhone/zunePhone - or my personal favorite, microPhone.

 

[zerocool84]

Originally posted by: pm

WM 6.5 will appear in a month or two on new phones and should be a better user experience, and then next years WM 7.0 (Photon) will tie a Zune-like experience with Windows Mobile.

My only experience with 6.5 was on the Touch Pro 2 but that's loaded with the different interface that it felt too different to try to get a feel for 6.5 but WM needs to be updated so bad it hurts.

 

[Fingolfin269]

I just wish an app of some sort would surface that lets me sync my Zune Marketplace/Pass with my phone.

 

[erwos]

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
I just wish an app of some sort would surface that lets me sync my Zune Marketplace/Pass with my phone.

You mean like "Windows Media Player"? IIRC, Windows Mobile phones play Zune content just fine.

Originally posted by: zerocool84
My only experience with 6.5 was on the Touch Pro 2 but that's loaded with the different interface that it felt too different to try to get a feel for 6.5 but WM needs to be updated so bad it hurts.

The TP2 is loaded with WM 6.1. WM 6.5 isn't even finalized yet. Much as I love the custom ROM community, them calling ROMs "WM 6.5" is really pissing me off.

Anyways, I imagine the Zune HD will morph into a phone in another year or two. They'll want to use the cover of "just an AV device" to finish up some of the apps they'll need for the phone (email, PIM, GPS, etc.) and get feedback via firmware update.

 

[zerocool84]

Originally posted by: erwos

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269
I just wish an app of some sort would surface that lets me sync my Zune Marketplace/Pass with my phone.

You mean like "Windows Media Player"? IIRC, Windows Mobile phones play Zune content just fine.

Originally posted by: zerocool84
My only experience with 6.5 was on the Touch Pro 2 but that's loaded with the different interface that it felt too different to try to get a feel for 6.5 but WM needs to be updated so bad it hurts.

The TP2 is loaded with WM 6.1. WM 6.5 isn't even finalized yet. Much as I love the custom ROM community, them calling ROMs "WM 6.5" is really pissing me off.

Anyways, I imagine the Zune HD will morph into a phone in another year or two. They'll want to use the cover of "just an AV device" to finish up some of the apps they'll need for the phone (email, PIM, GPS, etc.) and get feedback via firmware update.

The early version I played with had 6.5 I checked with the Touch Flo on it but that was like 2 months ago so it was just probably an earlier version.

 

[Rottie]

Ok hello Microsoft what are u reading this?

 

[Deeko]

They might - but I also can't see them abandoning the third party windows mobile platform. As much as they're losing ground, they do still sell a lot of WM phones and I doubt they want to give that up.

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

WinMo's a decent platform. HTC made it real nice. Just gotta wait now. LG said it's bringing out 50 WinMo phones earlier this year. Samsung's new Omnia phones show that it is once again behind WinMo.

 

[akugami]

I agree with what pm is saying. I think Windows Mobile 7 will tie the software much more closely with an app store. Probably the Zune app store. Which would make sense since you won't need to re-invent the wheel. Just add another spoke. My only concern with what MS is doing is that it might be too little too late.

Blackberries are king on the business front. It'll be tough, not impossible just tough, for them to compete with RIM. The Palm Pre has re-invented Palm and makes anything from Palm going forward a serious contender. Then there is Google's Android OS. Finally, the Jesus Phone (iPhone) which has, even with all the issues surrounding it, generated insane buzz. I really think MS dropped the ball (Nokia too) and are going to face insanely tough competition going forward.

All of this competition means that we the consumers win. It should spur innovation as each company competes for a bigger slice of the smartphone pie. Hopefully it'll lead to lower prices as well.

 

[shortylickens]

Originally posted by: akugami
I agree with what pm is saying. I think Windows Mobile 7 will tie the software much more closely with an app store. Probably the Zune app store. Which would make sense since you won't need to re-invent the wheel. Just add another spoke. My only concern with what MS is doing is that it might be too little too late.

Blackberries are king on the business front. It'll be tough, not impossible just tough, for them to compete with RIM. The Palm Pre has re-invented Palm and makes anything from Palm going forward a serious contender. Then there is Google's Android OS. Finally, the Jesus Phone (iPhone) which has, even with all the issues surrounding it, generated insane buzz. I really think MS dropped the ball (Nokia too) and are going to face insanely tough competition going forward.

All of this competition means that we the consumers win. It should spur innovation as each company competes for a bigger slice of the smartphone pie. Hopefully it'll lead to lower prices as well.

I was thinking Nokia needs to go with either Android or WebOS or make a kickass new OS for their high end phones. I looked at a bunch of reviews for the N97 and they all said the S60 isnt good enough anymore, even with massive tweaks.

 

[erwos]

There's no such thing as "too little, too late" in the mobile phone world. People upgrade their phones every 2-3 years, if not more. Since all these business phones run off Exchange, there's no particular barrier to switching.

 

[akugami]

Originally posted by: erwos
There's no such thing as "too little, too late" in the mobile phone world. People upgrade their phones every 2-3 years, if not more. Since all these business phones run off Exchange, there's no particular barrier to switching.

It's not quite "too little, too late" yet but in another two years it might be. Think about it. We're at the point, and Apple is responsible, where we make a lot of application purchases on our smartphones due to the ease of finding and purchasing said apps. Forget what platform you're on, if you spent $50-100 in apps and you find some of those apps very useful, you're not likely to switch to a competing smartphone. You'll likely upgrade your old smartphone to a newer model, be it Apple, Pre, or Android based.

It's much the same with Apple's iPod. While most of the music was from CD's (or illegal places), enough was bought from the iTunes store that most people opted to buy newer iPod models rather than some other equally serviceable (in some ways better) DAP. They also got used to how their music was organized in iTunes that they didn't want to bother with the hassle of something like the Zune store and app.

I believe this is what MS and Nokia will be facing with the Windows Mobile and Symbian OS's. Windows Mobile 7's release will be quite a while away and the longer it takes for them to release a cohesive package to compete with Android, iPhone OS and Pre, the harder it will be to shift those users back to the Windows Mobile Platform.

The are two trump cards that MS has (and which Nokia does not) and one is MS Office. Full support for Office files and better integration with MS server technologies is likely what will help save Windows Mobile. At least on the business front. Which would hurt RIM more than Apple, Palm or Google. But at least this gives them a base in which to chip away at Apple, Palm and Google.

The other trump card is Zune. While the Zune is currently minuscule in the DAP front, at least it is a base from which to launch a Windows Mobile app store. Perhaps Windows Mobile will in fact be integrated with features from the Zune so it'll be a Zune/WinMobile hybrid much like the iPhone based many of it's features around the iTunes store. The new Zune HD looks like a pretty slick DAP and some of the processing power present in the Zune HD looks like it would be a pretty good fit in a smartphone.

Windows Mobile 7 won't be here until 2010. MS needs to wow OEM's like Samsung, Motorola and HTC (among others) if they want their mobile OS to remain relevant. Palm might decide to license the WebOS and if that happens, many OEM's will have a choice of Android, Windows Mobile or WebOS (Palm). And unlike established markets like the PC OS front, MS doesn't quite have a killer app to woo OEM's, developers and consumers. I don't think Symbian is a serious contender at this point without a major overhaul.

 

[pm]

I agree with Akugami.

The key is in the apps and the developers to write them. Once developers settle on a platform and a programming language and have an audience of customers for their product, they tend to settle. You could see this in the computer industry - in the 80's there were dozens of competing operating systems and desktop computers (Commodore 64/128, Amiga, Atari ST, Amstrad, Sinclair, Coleco, and of course, Apple, and the list goes on and on), by the '90's that list was winnowed down to just a few players, and then eventually just to one dominant operating system (Windows). This wasn't because of only the capabilities of the platforms - but because of developers. The Atari ST had better display technology and sound than the IBM PC, but once the developers moved to the PC, the Atari was doomed.

There are plenty of differences between smartphone cell phones and the desktop computers, but there's a lot more in common between the platforms than there are differences and there's no reason in my mind to think that the cell phone industry won't follow a similar track. Right now we have about a dozen volume smartphone OS's - within 4 years, I believe there will be only be a couple of key OS's going forward and that the list will gradually winnow down over time to just one or two.

I completely agree with Akugami - now is the time for the main players to solidify their positions, now is the growth period, and in a couple of years it will be the period of consolidation. If Nokia wants Symbian to stay revelant, now is the time to make their move and if they don't do much of anything, very soon it will be too late because the armies of developers will have made their choices. Back on the original topic of Microsoft, a zunePhone would alienate HTC and other WM vendors, and WM has a good roadmap (to my mind anyway) going forward if they execute to it, but I have no doubt that of all of the industry players Microsoft understands the rules of the OS game and know what is at stake, and I have no doubt that if they think they need to link the hardware and software to control the platform, I'm sure they will.

 

[Deeko]

I don't see the industry "settling" into an exclusive platform like Apple's, unless they plan on selling it to other manufactures. The iPhone could have a good place in the market, but it just won't have the entire market to itself. If the market is going to consolidate like that, it will be to a multi-manufacturer platform, like Windows Mobile, Android, or Symbian. That is, unless you're talking about smartphones exclusively - yes, that could settle to a couple of big carriers, I could see that.

 

[pm]

Originally posted by: Deeko
I don't see the industry "settling" into an exclusive platform like Apple's, unless they plan on selling it to other manufactures. The iPhone could have a good place in the market, but it just won't have the entire market to itself. If the market is going to consolidate like that, it will be to a multi-manufacturer platform, like Windows Mobile, Android, or Symbian. That is, unless you're talking about smartphones exclusively - yes, that could settle to a couple of big carriers, I could see that.

I'm talking about smartphones exclusively - although I think in less than 10 years pretty much all phones will be smartphones.

And I agree - the idea that Apple will be the only smartphone in existence seems a bit far-fetched. But I could picture a world where it's just Apple and Android and Blackberry. Or just Apple and Windows Mobile.

Right now it's Palm, Apple, Blackberry, Window Mobile, Android and Symbian. That doesn't seem sustainable from an active developer standpoint over the long term.

 

[Deeko]

Its exploded the past few years. It was just Blackberry and Palm. Then Windows Mobile gradually took Palm's marketshare, to the point that Palm started using Windows Mobile. Then Symbian came in. Then iPhone. Then Android. Then Palm came back. Now its a huge mashing of OSes...I agree, that number will definitely settle back down to a few. Blackberry I can't see going anywhere. As much as I like Android more than Windows Mobile, I find it hard to believe Microsoft will give up on phones completely. We'll see what happens with WM 7 next year. If Android doesn't make a bigger dent, and WM7 is a hit, Android could fade away.

 

[erwos]

It will _probably_ fade back to Windows Mobile, WebOS, Android, and the iPhone OS. If I had to guess at one of them disappearing, it would be WebOS, if only because Palm could port their interface to Android. Symbian and Blackberry are both doomed to failure, IMHO, the companies are simply not investing in them like they need to be. I would have said the same of WinMo if it weren't for the Zune HD.

 

[Deeko]

Why is Blackberry doomed to failure? Blackberry still has a huge following in the business world - many companies run BES, a lot of places only allowed Blackberrys because they are the only one to offer camera-less models. If anything, Blackberry's popularity is increasing - they went from being the business standard with little to no consumer impact, to breaking into the consumer world with the pearl/curve/tour. Symbian, while weak in the US, is huge worldwide.

There is a market for all of these. As nice as Android/WebOS are, they don't have near the market share or impact of the others yet.

 

[boomhower]

I doubt they will. If they produced their own phone it would seroulsy piss of all the companies that produce WM phones. If HTC/Samsung/etc. told MS to screw off they would lose a ton of money. They could easily go to Android and be done with it. MS make more selling WM licenses than they stand to gain in hardware sales, IMHO.

 

[erwos]

Originally posted by: Deeko
Why is Blackberry doomed to failure?

Because it REALLY doesn't seem like RIM is investing BB-OS like they need to, and the strengths of Blackberries aren't in the OS per se. You yourself allude to this when you mention how the phones have no cameras - it's not like RIM has a patent on camera-less phones. RIM could do just as well using Android with a bit of proprietary software. Most of the BB's popularity at this point is from cachet, not function.

I think Symbian is on the way out because Nokia essentially split off from Symbian when they created the Symbian Foundation (or whatever it's called). That's not really a statement of "we think our OS is a competitive advantage", especially when they start talking about using WinMo and friends on their phones instead.

 

[Deeko]

I don't know - the key component to blackberry is BES. It depends on if they can (and are willing) to port BES functionality to another carrier. And while the OS isn't quite up to par, we don't know what they're working on - and they clearly HAVE been making a push to more consumer-friendly phones. Compare the Pearl, Curve, Tour, and Storm to all previous Blackberry phones - huge difference in terms of consumer-oriented features. I don't think they're giving up on BBOS anytime soon.

You may be right about Symbian - I was just pointing out that they are still very dominant outside the US, which may keep it alive longer than expected.

 

[akugami]

I think RIM's Blackberry is very vulnerable to poaching from Windows Mobile. If MS plays its cards right, they can devastate RIM. Let's face it, most of the customers for BB's are in the corporate world. Much of the corporate world runs on MS based software, from servers on down to the Office suite of apps. MS is well entrenched to say the least and it shouldn't be too hard for them to add functionality for accessing other services such as Lotus, Novel, Groupwise, etc. I think if MS doesn't screw up Windows Mobile 7 and integrates it with Server 2008, Sharepoint, Exchange, etc. then there is a huge chance of MS taking RIM's lunch.

Symbian may have a wide user base but that decreases as time goes by. As people replace their older Nokia phones with new smart phones, many of them are turning to phones other than those from Nokia. Unlike today's PC market where computers can be used for 5+ years, phones are replaced within 1-2 years. The smart phone market is in such a state of flux that it really is impossible to say who will ultimately win out. I do think that the next five years, and especially the next two, is crucial in establishing a hold on the market and whichever phone OS falters is gone.

 

[DivideBYZero]

A market place is coming to WinMo, but it will be fractured and not as simple as the other stores for competing devices.