Disagree. Trump lost because of COVID and the economy being trashed. When the Republicans do everything they can to sabotage Biden Trump will run on how the Democrats never fixed anything. And I doubt there will be the enthusiasm on the Democrats' side in 2024 seeing how little Biden is pretty right-leaning. Trump has a huge base that isn't going anywhere. Unless he's dead there is a pretty decent chance Trump gets elected in 2024.
Trump will likely flee into exile to avoid all the criminal charges coming his way. The SDNY has wood for individual_1, just for starters. It'll be bunga-bunga for Donnie if he sticks around.