We need to remember that big.LITTLE in current incarnations is largely geared towards 4-threaded performance. Some benchmarks may be able to push all 8 cores to a degree, but normal usage mode is switching between LITTLE cores and big cores to maximize power efficiency. You see this from all of Samsung's big.LITTLE SOCs as well as Qualcomm's.
This is another reason why I think this "consumers go for moar cores" theory is wrong. Because the octa-core SOCs from Mediatek and Kirin(?) are also based on this 4-threaded performance concept. They do not act like a full-blown 8 cores in majority of the operations. They just have been, for the most part, using two clusters of LITTLE cores at different frequencies instead of actual big cores. (at least until this 10-core monster was announced)
I am guessing the cheapness of ARM's LITTLE cores (both financially and electrically) as well as varying yields of LITTLE cores per different revision play a role here. It is instructive that we see some newer versions of LITTLE cores clocking upwards of 2.0 GHz which was previously thought to be impractical. It naturally follows that not all LITTLE cores are created equal, and that may as well be another motivating factor for the OEMs to create little.LITTLE SOCs.
None the less, the bottom-line here is that these SOCs are still quad performers. OEMs advertising of these as octa-cores is, while technically accurate, not based on any consumer demand but based on technical and financial reality. So again, I reiterate that the "consumers demand moar cores in a smartphone" myth is, well, a myth.
Given the apriori obvious thermal constraints, I'd wager that yes, a lower ipc dual core will beat a higher ipc 8c in actual use.
I have one counter-example here, albeit an anecdotal one (from a credible source, though). I was curious why we did not see more 2+2 configurations that should be more power-friendly than typical 4+4 configurations. One of the reasons I have heard is that for typical Android operation two LITTLE cores are not nearly adequate for a smooth user experience. That causes more big core access and scheduler overhead in 2+2 configurations than 2+4 or 4+4 configurations to the point that whatever theoretical power savings in a 2+2 configuration is not realized in the OS environment.
An assumption that a lower IPC dual-core beats a higher IPC octa-core is not sound in theory and in practice.
P.S. Apple's A8X was clearly designed to be a quad-core, as seen in the floor plan. Apple must have disabled one of them for power reasons, yield reasons (TSMC 20nm..), or possibly even financial reasons. It is difficult to imagine that Apple engineers designed a quad-core in order to purposefully fuse off one of the cores eventually (while saving its cache..). So yes, Apple have already moved towards 4-threaded performance. I predict that this is where things will settle for the foreseeable future, just as they have on desktop. So please stop the nonsense that Apple will stay with dual-cores forever thanks to Cyclone's high IPC. (but as poofyhairguy pointed out they REALLY need to add more RAM to their devices first. A7 + 1GB RAM on my iPad Air is a miserable experience)