McCain/Obama Tax Plans Examined

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lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
260
126
Who cares. Income tax is an outdated idea. And it's the spending we care about as that's where your boy Hussein is gonna take the top cake.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
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Originally posted by: lupi
And it's the spending we care about as that's where your boy Hussein is gonna take the top cake.
I would hope so. Domestic spending has been woefully ignored for the last 7 years; time to start serving that cake to Americans instead of Iraqis and Afghanis.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,581
2,814
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Originally posted by: Genx87
If this is to be believed.

McCain: 4.5 Trillion
Obama: 3.3 Trillion

Gee I can hardly wait.

With these tax breaks they are trying to squeeze blood from a beat. Lower income people pay very little of the federal income burden. Thus when tax cuts are passed they see very little in money.

Originally posted by: jpeyton
You're right, we should keep the McCain/Bush plan of extravagant tax cuts for the wealthy, because that's worked so well for the last 8 years.

It's not like Bush's plan increased the national debt almost by over $3 trillion in 7 years. Oh wait, it did.

EDIT: I was wrong.

January 2001: $5.7 Trillion
June 2008: $9.4 Trillion

So we've actually seen a $3.7 trillion increase since Bush took office.

Am I reading this right? Anti-Bushies complain that the debt has increased $3,700,000,000,000 in 7 years like it's the end of the world. Obama's 'wonderful' plan increases the deficit 89% as much as Bush and it will only take 57% as long to do it?

Step away from the partisan rhetoric for a second: The "Bull-in-a-china-shop" you complain about could be considered FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE compared to the other option.

(I don't endorse either candidate, but just wanted to point out the apparent hypocrisy here)
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
142
116
Originally posted by: sactoking
Am I reading this right? Anti-Bushies complain that the debt has increased $3,700,000,000,000 in 7 years like it's the end of the world. Obama's 'wonderful' plan increases the deficit 89% as much as Bush and it will only take 57% as long to do it?
You're not reading it right. The estimates are over 10 years; $4.5 trillion for McCain, $3.3 trillion for Obama.

Bush is at $3.7 trillion for 7 years, which equals $5.3 trillion extrapolated over 10 years.
 

RichardE

Banned
Dec 31, 2005
10,246
2
0
Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Originally posted by: Craig234
Only a right-wing hack would equate all attacks on the Bush tax handouts to the richas 'hackery' by definition.
Buzzzzzzzz... Sorry, that's incorrect, thank you for playing, I'm anything but a right-wing hack, in fact I'm not an anything-wing hack, I think the zealotry on both sides of the isle is rediculous. Using the terms "reducing taxes for the rich" is pretty much a red light indicator that what follows is a partisan attack, not an objective analysis.

And we do know the effects of any tax reductions on the table now - they'll increase the deficit. You clearly have not read the economic studies of the effect of those cuts.
No, we do not. Tax cuts do not happen in a vaccuum, they are but one factor of millions. As such, the most you can do is figure out correlation, not causation, because you can't isolate the factors. Would the deficits have been more or less had there not been tax cuts? Nobody can answer that question. Anyone who says they can do so without a doubt is just spouting ideology, not economics.

You say the Bush tax cut effects have been 'debated ad nauseum', but clearly more is needed as you are not yet informed of the facts.
Wrong. I'm plenty informed of the facts. Just because I don't adhere to your interpretation of them does not make me uninformed.

Would you prefer the more scientific of "Reducing taxes for the top 1% in the country". Or is just the idea that offends you? Since if its just the idea, your no better than anyone else.
 

sactoking

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2007
7,581
2,814
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Originally posted by: jpeyton
You're not reading it right. The estimates are over 10 years; $4.5 trillion for McCain, $3.3 trillion for Obama.

Bush is at $3.7 trillion for 7 years, which equals $5.3 trillion extrapolated over 10 years.

Got it. Thank you for clarifying that for me. Since my other thoughts on the topic don't really fit within the confines of this thread, I will step away.
 

2Xtreme21

Diamond Member
Jun 13, 2004
7,044
0
0
Unfortunately, we have to pony up and pay off the $9.4 trillion debt this wonderful administration got us in. I'm pissed that both candidates want to expand that deficit all for the sake of getting elected. Though I guess you can thank your current Idiot in Chief for that.

Hey I've got an idea. Since we can't reverse time and we're already raping Iraq for all its worth, why not give the riches we're already acquiring to the American people? That would sure put a dent in it... and maybe give some of us some kind of inkling as to why we're still fucking there.
 

PELarson

Platinum Member
Mar 27, 2001
2,289
0
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Originally posted by: 2Xtreme21
Unfortunately, we have to pony up and pay off the $9.4 trillion debt this wonderful administration got us in. I'm pissed that both candidates want to expand that deficit all for the sake of getting elected. Though I guess you can thank your current Idiot in Chief for that.

Hey I've got an idea. Since we can't reverse time and we're already raping Iraq for all its worth, why not give the riches we're already acquiring to the American people? That would sure put a dent in it... and maybe give some of us some kind of inkling as to why we're still fucking there.

You will have to convince the holder of those fortunes. You know Halliburton, KBR, and other now foreign corporations!
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
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From genx87-

I dont think Obama's plan is bad. But lets be realistic in what to expect for the poor. They dont pay fed income tax to begin with. Why do people expect them to benefit from a tax cut?

Reading comprehension, please. Obama's plan also increases EIC payouts, which supplement extremely low working family incomes. They're also an indirect subsidy to low paying employers, as well.

The short-sightedness of many posters never ceases to amaze me- this isn't about just the Bush taxcuts, it's also about all the taxcuts that have primarily benefitted those at the top and particularly those at the very top beginning in the Reagan era.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/250.html

Reference charts 5 and 8, and the fact that taxes are actually regressive in the top 1%. Taxrates for the top 1% have fallen by 1/3, and their share of income increased 2-1/2X over 25 years... while most everybody else lost in that regard, with the bottom 50% actually losing purchasing power due to inflation...

The top 1% didn't appear to have any trouble making ends meet in 1980, so their situation today is clearly no more desperate... And Obama's plan, raising taxes for those incomes above $600K, would not increase taxes at all for many at the lower end of the top 1%... Those affected would still be paying a lower rate than the top 1% of 1980...

Pretty rough, huh?

My only problem with it is in cutting taxes for those of us in the upper 80-99% or so of incomes. For example, the wife and I, with 2 children, paid $10K in federal income tax on just over $100K of AGI. We're not quite in the top 10%. That's slightly above the average rate for our income, and I certainly don't feel like the taxman was pounding us hard, at all... Frankly, I'd be thrilled to death to pay 30% on $600K, as would any American not completely spoiled by wealth or out of their anti-tax minds...



 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
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Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Really, we get it. You like Obama and can't stand McCain. Great. When will you partisan hacks (on the left or the right) get the idea that you're not going to convince anyone?

When I read an article that talks about "reducing taxes on the rich" etc, I immediately know it's a hack attempt at discrediting the Bush tax cuts. Those have been debated ad nauseum.

Then they try to compare the effect on deficits for each approach -- knowing perfectly well that there's no real way to measure the impact because reducing taxes may or may not increase deficits. If they increase total income by spurring economic activity, they may reduce the deficit. If they don't, the deficit increases. Only someone with a partisan agenda (left or right) would make such an assumption as part of an "analysis".

no tax cut will ever lead to a large enough increase in taxable income to offset the amount of the taxcut. The only possiblity under which that could occur would be if the cuts triggered inflation and subsequent bracket creep.
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Frankly, I'd be thrilled to death to pay 30% on $600K, as would any American not completely spoiled by wealth or out of their anti-tax minds...
Hogwash. I'd be thrilled to death to pay much less...as little as I can legally get away with in fact. Why put a number on it? Why 30%? The gov't is taking your money that you rightfully earned and redistributing it. Now I agree some services are needed, but 30% is a bit effing much. It has nothing to do with being spoiled by wealth. It's about keeping as much of what is yours.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
1
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Originally posted by: PokerGuy

Wrong. I'm plenty informed of the facts. Just because I don't adhere to your interpretation of them does not make me uninformed.

funny, what i've read you seem to have a pretty naive understanding of economics, as well as the facts.
 

miketheidiot

Lifer
Sep 3, 2004
11,060
1
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Originally posted by: brencat
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Frankly, I'd be thrilled to death to pay 30% on $600K, as would any American not completely spoiled by wealth or out of their anti-tax minds...
Hogwash. I'd be thrilled to death to pay much less...as little as I can legally get away with in fact. Why put a number on it? Why 30%? The gov't is taking your money that you rightfully earned and redistributing it. Now I agree some services are needed, but 30% is a bit effing much. It has nothing to do with being spoiled by wealth. It's about keeping as much of what is yours.

The government provides the very mechanisms that allow you to earn money and own property. I don't think 30% is very much to ask when someone has received so much through government action.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Originally posted by: brencat
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Frankly, I'd be thrilled to death to pay 30% on $600K, as would any American not completely spoiled by wealth or out of their anti-tax minds...
Hogwash. I'd be thrilled to death to pay much less...as little as I can legally get away with in fact. Why put a number on it? Why 30%? The gov't is taking your money that you rightfully earned and redistributing it. Now I agree some services are needed, but 30% is a bit effing much. It has nothing to do with being spoiled by wealth. It's about keeping as much of what is yours.


30% is about what the Obama plan would demand of those making $600K and above, brencat. Still less than they'd have paid in 1980.

Myself? Hey, under the proposed scenario, my takehome pay would increase by ~4X- only self-important fools with a twisted sense of entitlement would whine about such a vast increase, dwelling on what they'd lost in taxes rather than what they'd gained...
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
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Originally posted by: miketheidiot
funny, what i've read you seem to have a pretty naive understanding of economics, as well as the facts.
Riiiiight, I make a living in finance and economics, and I'm the naive one about economics :roll:

no tax cut will ever lead to a large enough increase in taxable income to offset the amount of the taxcut. The only possiblity under which that could occur would be if the cuts triggered inflation and subsequent bracket creep.
Wow, all these researchers and economic analysts have tried for decades to figure it out, but you already have the answer! Why didn't you say so, you could have saved all those economists a lot of analysis!

You do your user ID justice......

Originally posted by: RichardE
Would you prefer the more scientific of "Reducing taxes for the top 1% in the country". Or is just the idea that offends you? Since if its just the idea, your no better than anyone else.
Has nothing to do with the "idea". If I start an article on drilling ANWR by saying "we'll examine both sides of the issue, the pro-energy side and the anti-progress side", would it not be reasonable to assume that what follows is simple ideology and not an objective analysis?

When you hear blah blah blah "more tax cuts for the rich", it means you're hearing ideology, not real analysis.

If the top 1% in terms of income get 30% of the tax cuts, is that disproportionate? Maybe, maybe not. If that 1% is paying 40% of the total taxes, then getting 30% of the cuts is not disproportionate. If the 1% is paying 20% of total taxes, then getting 30% of the cuts is disproportionate. As usual, nothing is a simple as a political soundbyte wants you to think it is.
 

Xavier434

Lifer
Oct 14, 2002
10,373
1
0
Originally posted by: sactoking
Am I reading this right? Anti-Bushies complain that the debt has increased $3,700,000,000,000 in 7 years like it's the end of the world. Obama's 'wonderful' plan increases the deficit 89% as much as Bush and it will only take 57% as long to do it?

Step away from the partisan rhetoric for a second: The "Bull-in-a-china-shop" you complain about could be considered FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE compared to the other option.

(I don't endorse either candidate, but just wanted to point out the apparent hypocrisy here)

I don't believe it has so much to do with the amount that Bush has increased the debt although that is most certainly a good chunk of the pie. The other big chunk has to do with how poorly that borrowed money has been spent. Let's face it. Most Americans agree that over the course of the past 8 years this country has gone downhill for many reasons. I would have hoped that borrowing an additional 3.7 trillion would have prevented a lot of that from happening.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
funny, what i've read you seem to have a pretty naive understanding of economics, as well as the facts.
Riiiiight, I make a living in finance and economics, and I'm the naive one about economics :roll:

no tax cut will ever lead to a large enough increase in taxable income to offset the amount of the taxcut. The only possiblity under which that could occur would be if the cuts triggered inflation and subsequent bracket creep.
Wow, all these researchers and economic analysts have tried for decades to figure it out, but you already have the answer! Why didn't you say so, you could have saved all those economists a lot of analysis!

You do your user ID justice......

Originally posted by: RichardE
Would you prefer the more scientific of "Reducing taxes for the top 1% in the country". Or is just the idea that offends you? Since if its just the idea, your no better than anyone else.
Has nothing to do with the "idea". If I start an article on drilling ANWR by saying "we'll examine both sides of the issue, the pro-energy side and the anti-progress side", would it not be reasonable to assume that what follows is simple ideology and not an objective analysis?

When you hear blah blah blah "more tax cuts for the rich", it means you're hearing ideology, not real analysis.

If the top 1% in terms of income get 30% of the tax cuts, is that disproportionate? Maybe, maybe not. If that 1% is paying 40% of the total taxes, then getting 30% of the cuts is not disproportionate. If the 1% is paying 20% of total taxes, then getting 30% of the cuts is disproportionate. As usual, nothing is a simple as a political soundbyte wants you to think it is.


Heh. And when I hear the supersonic whine from the kind of spin in your last paragraph, I know for sure it's more of the same ideological drivel used to sucker the public for the last 30 years...

And the economists, researchers, etc that you reference have merely been shills in support of an ideology of illusion made possible only by huge and ongoing governmental debt acquisition. The charts and figures I linked above speak for themselves. There's no trickle down in trickledown economics except from the perps pissing down our collective leg as they tell us it's raining...

The Laffer curve is a laugh as applied to American incomes, and the notion that cutting taxrates will somehow miraculously increase revenue has been discredited every time taxes have been cut w/o the much-promised result ever occurring. One step forward, two steps back, spinning the step forward as "progress".

Ultimately, what's been proven is that the only people who benefit from taxcuts are those who receive them.
 

lupi

Lifer
Apr 8, 2001
32,539
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Originally posted by: jpeyton
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Now let's take these numbers and add their spending proposals. Wonder what the totals are then.
Have you finished calculating what a 100-year occupation of Iraq will cost us?

The 100 year occupation of Cuba, Puerto Rico, Phillipines, and the 60 year occupation of Germany and Japan, and the 50 year occupation of Korea doesn't seem to have cost uf that much, so I imagine it won't be much of a financial burden.
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
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Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Heh. And when I hear the supersonic whine from the kind of spin in your last paragraph, I know for sure it's more of the same ideological drivel used to sucker the public for the last 30 years...
Interesting that you think of my position as "ideological drivel" since I haven't even identified my position on the tax cuts. All I said was that just by the terminology used one can tell the following is not going to be objective analysis, I said nothing about the actual merits of the tax cuts.

And the economists, researchers, etc that you reference have merely been shills in support of an ideology of illusion made possible only by huge and ongoing governmental debt acquisition.
That sounds a lot like those who seek to discredit global warming science. You believe all economic researchers and analysts all over the world have entered into some vast conspiracy pact? Really? Of course not. That's why you have bunch of different analysis and different results, and there is no conclusive answer. For example, in the numbers you linked to, there is an implicit assumption that all other factors remain equal over time so effects of tax decreases can be easily measured by using resulting aggregate numbers for those years. It's not that simple.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
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Yeh, riight, PokerGuy. Name an occasion when cutting top echelon tax rates actually increased revenue enough to offset the losses from the lower rate and the borrowing necessary to provide the proper illusion, cover the difference. Trickledown won't sell w/o huge permanent and ongoing deficits- the effects would be entirely too obvious.

I realize that you haven't actually offered an opinion, but attacking the source and then obfuscating and distracting are time-honored traditions from those supporting the anti-tax flimflam artists... WTF does global warming have to do with any of this, anyway?
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
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Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: FDF12389
We should have just voted for Ron Paul and eliminated income tax.
But I like roads.

Then your state can pay for them. Why do the feds have to take the money and then dole it back out to the states, always with strings attached and always less than what they collected in the first place? Oh, you thought the feds did their jobs for free?
 

PokerGuy

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
13,650
201
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Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Yeh, riight, PokerGuy. Name an occasion when cutting top echelon tax rates actually increased revenue enough to offset the losses from the lower rate and the borrowing necessary to provide the proper illusion, cover the difference. Trickledown won't sell w/o huge permanent and ongoing deficits- the effects would be entirely too obvious.
I personally <hint: this is an opinion> don't much see the logical reason for lowering taxes for the top 1% income earners, because the slight increase in their retained income will likely not be spent into the economy as quickly as a decrease in the tax rate of another income group. You're making assumptions, there is no conclusive evidence that cutting tax rates works or does not work. Given that you can't isolate the variables, I'd say its a very difficult thing to do.

but attacking the source and then obfuscating and distracting are time-honored traditions from those supporting the anti-tax flimflam artists
Not obfuscating or distracting anything, the source is clearly biased, as evidenced by the type of language used. As such, it's not more believable or credible than anyone else's conjecture or opinion.
 

blackangst1

Lifer
Feb 23, 2005
22,902
2,359
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Originally posted by: PokerGuy
Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Yeh, riight, PokerGuy. Name an occasion when cutting top echelon tax rates actually increased revenue enough to offset the losses from the lower rate and the borrowing necessary to provide the proper illusion, cover the difference. Trickledown won't sell w/o huge permanent and ongoing deficits- the effects would be entirely too obvious.
I personally <hint: this is an opinion> don't much see the logical reason for lowering taxes for the top 1% income earners, because the slight increase in their retained income will likely not be spent into the economy as quickly as a decrease in the tax rate of another income group. You're making assumptions, there is no conclusive evidence that cutting tax rates works or does not work. Given that you can't isolate the variables, I'd say its a very difficult thing to do.

Is there a study to back this up?
 

naddicott

Senior member
Jul 3, 2002
793
0
76
There is definitely some debate among economists of what the effects of tax cuts are on the economy and the federal budget, but politicians on the right regularly misrepresent even the conservative (academic) view.

To establish a baseline, take a sampling of (mostly) conservative economists' views (compilation, but individual sources are linked):

"The consensus view is that tax cuts indeed influence national income, but not to the extent that they are fully self-financing."

"Republican candidates are fond of saying we should cut tax rates because doing so would incentivize more rapid economic growth (true) and raise tax revenue (wishful thinking)."
- Gregory Mankiw - Chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers 2003-2005

"No thoughtful person believes that this possible offset more than compensated for the first effect for these tax cuts. Not a single one."
- Andrew Samwick - Chief Economist on Bush's Council of Economic Advisers 2003-2004

"Tax cuts that reduce marginal tax rates will likely improve the efficiency of the economy and boost overall economic activity. Because they increase economic activity, cuts in marginal tax rates typically lead to revenue losses that are smaller than implied by so-called static analyses, which hold economic activity constant. However, under normal conditions, tax cuts do not wholly pay for themselves."
- Henry Paulson - Bush's Current Treasury Secretary

"Will the tax cuts pay for themselves? As a general rule, we do not think tax cuts pay for themselves. Certainly, the data [we have] presented above do not support this claim."
- Edward Lazear - Current Chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers

"The general view is tax cuts don't pay for themselves."
- Ben Bernanke - Chairman of the Federal Reserve

"It is very rare, and very few economists believe that you can cut taxes and you will get the same amount of revenues. But it is also the case that if you cut taxes, you will not lose all the revenue that is implicit in the so-called static analysis."
- Alan Greenspan - Former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, 1987-2006

"If there's one thing that economists agree on, it's that these claims are false. We're not talking just ivory-tower lefties. Virtually every economics Ph.D. who has worked in a prominent role in the Bush Administration acknowledges that the tax cuts enacted during the past six years have not paid for themselves--and were never intended to."
- Justin Fox - Business and economics columnist at Time Magazine, formerly at Fortune