Maybe Elon Musk is not as smart as he thinks he is

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
If I was a betting man, I'd short Tesla's stock. The company's the darling of Wall Street. One reason is the company's leadership. Investors love confident men who deliver. Tesla has been doing that in spades recently. Musk and his company also have a devoted following that like to go to Tesla events, go on forums and write testimonials about the car and they're willing to defend it anytime anywhere. This cult following is not unlike Apple. You can even see it on the company's website, which reeks of simplicity. However, all is not well at Tesla. There's a dealership a couple of blocks from where I live. The place is not big and, when I visited last month, it was empty and there were only two people on duty, sitting behind Apple computers. While the company's flagship car, the Model S, is a technological wonder, its creature comforts leave you wanting. The premium leather in the Model S pales in comparison to the Nappa leather in my X5. The one in the Tesla is much thinner. Also, the car felt cheap inside. The people at the dealership were quite knowledgable but they were not as excited about their product as I expected them to be. I left disappointed.

However, the aforementioned problems pale in comparison to Tesla's major problem: it's insistence that it run its own shops. This may create a larger margin (Tesla does not even offer discounts) and better customer service (maybe not, but at least they'd have more control over the narrative) but it leaves a lot of money on the table. Dealerships may not have the best reputations but what they do have is proximity to customers. Given the inherent limitation in Tesla vehicles, no one wants to drive hundreds of miles just to have the pleasure of being in a Tesla-owned dealership. What people do want is convenience and dealerships provide that. Third party dealerships also take part of the risk of expansion. This is great for a startup that cannot spend the capital in unfamiliar territories and it leaves headquarters to concentrate on how to make a great product. Finally, dealerships allow more people to test drive the vehicles. This is not possible when there are only like 3-4 Tesla-owned stores in New York state. The insistence on having your own stores limits Tesla's reach (there's an EV joke in there). In spite of what Elon Musk may think, third party dealerships are partners he should be embracing instead of demonizing.

Without him even realizing it, Tesla is letting himself be the guinea pig of the major auto manufacturers. EV have been around for over 100 years but, finally, someone has found a way to sell them. Enthusiasts aside, do you really think anyone will care whether this product is sold by GM or Toyota? No. Fact is, all the OEMs have to do now is just make a serious competitor to Tesla's flagship and the company may not be able to survive the competition. The distracting fight with dealerships can also only help the auto OEMs. If Tesla win, they can do the same. If Tesla loses, then it's business as usual. Either way, once the auto OEMs start taking the company seriously, Tesla will be done. They have the engineering and experience that Tesla simply lacks. Finally, like Apple, Tesla may have its own stores. But Musk needs to remember that Apple products can be purchased everywhere else. Tesla would be wise to rethink it's approach towards dealerships...
 

Via

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2009
4,670
4
0
Accomplishments of Elon Musk = A
Accomplishments of you = B

You vs. Elon Musk in mortal combat = c

A + B = ?

A - B = ?

c * A + B = ?
 

Born2bwire

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2005
9,840
6
71
Musk cofounded Paypal and Tesla, founded SpaceX and is worth billions. I do not know how smart he thinks he is but I think it would be hard for even him to overestimate it. Still, I think that the small retail coverage that he has is not a detriment because the service range of the Tesla is going to be limited to the roll out of the charging stations. There is not much point in placing dealers in regions that are not covered by the stations. This way he can concentrate roll outs in specific metros and routes while concentrating sales in these regions at the same time. It is not enough to have a decent EV; you need the infrastructure along with it and that is something that they are working to address.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
Musk cofounded Paypal and Tesla, founded SpaceX and is worth billions. I do not know how smart he thinks he is but I think it would be hard for even him to overestimate it. Still, I think that the small retail coverage that he has is not a detriment because the service range of the Tesla is going to be limited to the roll out of the charging stations. There is not much point in placing dealers in regions that are not covered by the stations. This way he can concentrate roll outs in specific metros and routes while concentrating sales in these regions at the same time. It is not enough to have a decent EV; you need the infrastructure along with it and that is something that they are working to address.

That's a separate issue. IMHO, his fight against dealerships isn't necessary and may prove expensive and disastrous, if not ego-shattering. A lot of the fights are in the state courts AND legislatures and the dealerships are being very aggressive about this because it's an existential fight for them. For Tesla, it's a minor convenience. I simply don't buy his argument that a Tesla car cannot be sold at a third party dealership...
 

Born2bwire

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2005
9,840
6
71
That's a separate issue. IMHO, his fight against dealerships isn't necessary and may prove expensive and disastrous, if not ego-shattering. A lot of the fights are in the state courts AND legislatures and the dealerships are being very aggressive about this because it's an existential fight for them. For Tesla, it's a minor convenience. I simply don't buy his argument that a Tesla car cannot be sold at a third party dealership...

You never mentioned his fight against the dealerships and the associated legal issues. You only talked about the inadequacies if not following the dealership model. I do not think that is currently a problem for them now or in the near future. They are not looking to sell everywhere and they are not looking to sell in large volume. Wikipedia says that they have sold almost 10,000 Tesla Model S and they are having a backlog to fill those. So selling outside their current charging network with a large volume sales model would be detrimental for them. There is a dealership that changed hands in town and they were quoted as hoping to get the sales volume up to 140 cars a month like in one of the other rural dealerships in the state. So a modest dealership in central IL pushes 1/10 the volume that Tesla is selling. I do not think that they are ready to move to a dealership model, especially since they are turning a profit with the current sales volume.
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,133
38
91
You never mentioned his fight against the dealerships and the associated legal issues. You only talked about the inadequacies if not following the dealership model. I do not think that is currently a problem for them now or in the near future. They are not looking to sell everywhere and they are not looking to sell in large volume. Wikipedia says that they have sold almost 10,000 Tesla Model S and they are having a backlog to fill those. So selling outside their current charging network with a large volume sales model would be detrimental for them. There is a dealership that changed hands in town and they were quoted as hoping to get the sales volume up to 140 cars a month like in one of the other rural dealerships in the state. So a modest dealership in central IL pushes 1/10 the volume that Tesla is selling. I do not think that they are ready to move to a dealership model, especially since they are turning a profit with the current sales volume.

They are barely turning a profit. Without government subsidies their product would be a harder sell. When you price a Model S on their website, the government discount are incorporated. Regarding the dealership, the issue seems to be philosophical rather than strategic. If all this is a ruse until they build up capacity to make and sell more products then it's a stupid one. Right now, because they are small, suppliers charge them more per component. That cuts into their profit. The legal battles cut into their profits. The limited stores cut into their profit. If they consider themselves a niche product (and plan to stay that way) then maybe the philosophy of selling only in their own stores may work but how is it better from how other exotics sell their products? I just don't see the upside of what they're doing.
 

Codewiz

Diamond Member
Jan 23, 2002
5,758
0
76
They are barely turning a profit. Without government subsidies their product would be a harder sell. When you price a Model S on their website, the government discount are incorporated. Regarding the dealership, the issue seems to be philosophical rather than strategic. If all this is a ruse until they build up capacity to make and sell more products then it's a stupid one. Right now, because they are small, suppliers charge them more per component. That cuts into their profit. The legal battles cut into their profits. The limited stores cut into their profit. If they consider themselves a niche product (and plan to stay that way) then maybe the philosophy of selling only in their own stores may work but how is it better from how other exotics sell their products? I just don't see the upside of what they're doing.

Simple question, do most dealerships have good reputations for vehicle service AND sales?

Fuck no. Why? Because there are so many scummy dealerships. Personally, I want to see the third party dealerships go the way of dodo. At this point in time, there is zero reason to have a third party represent you.

All your "problems" with Tesla not having third party dealerships are bogus. Tesla has to expand at a level they can support from a manufacturing and infrastructure perspective. What good would it do them to have some third party dealership they can't get enough cars to sell? That would look REALLY bad for them. Since they have limited production capabilities, the current model is far superior. And when they actually produce a MASS MARKET car, they will need dealerships and I have no doubt you will see Tesla owned dealerships pop up everywhere.
 

NFS4

No Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
72,636
47
91
You do realize that Tesla has partnerships with Toyota and Mercedes, right? They build electric motors, controllers, and batteries for both companies.

And you have to realize, the big manufacturers don't really have an incentive to make a competitor to the Model S when gasoline-powered vehicles are their bread and butter. The Ford Focus Electric flopped, the Volt doesn't sell without thousands in incentives on the hood (in addition to the $7,500 tax credit) and Nissan dropped nearly $10k off the MSRP of the Leaf.

Tesla "gets it", hence why Toyota and Mercedes are partnering with them.

As for dealerships, why the hell would they partner with dealerships? Compared to your average car, the number of things mechanically that could go wrong compared to a gas car are minuscule. No oil changes, no tranny flushes, no brake jobs, no fuel filters -- do you realize that there are few moving parts in an EV motor?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Accomplishments of Elon Musk = A
Accomplishments of you = B

You vs. Elon Musk in mortal combat = c

A + B = ?

A - B = ?

c * A + B = ?

But if you added a D option to that list, what would the chance that you would get the right answer if you randomly picked an answer? :hmm:
 

yllus

Elite Member & Lifer
Aug 20, 2000
20,577
432
126
Their product's scarcity and thus exclusiveness can work for them - not against them - if the product lives up to the hype. Part of the appeal of a Mercedes is that it is a Mercedes, not a Ford or GM car, even if some Ford or GM cars come close or are equal to a Mercedes product.

Tesla ups the ante on that brand label exclusivity x 10. Their cars are a more rare sight than the established luxury brands. In an age where (at least pretending to be) environmentally aware/friendly is a social boon, their product excels. And they're a discussion-worthy subject ("Where do you charge up? How fast is it? Have you met Musk?") whereas a BMW is just another BMW. Those are all powerful advantages.

It all falls apart though if the product isn't truly luxurious. I've never touched a Tesla car so I've no idea, but I've read good things. I hope for their sake most people think they're worth the money and risk.
 

Murloc

Diamond Member
Jun 24, 2008
5,382
65
91
Musk is a billionaire afaik so he can do however he pleases, he has no one to answer to.
 

Wreckem

Diamond Member
Sep 23, 2006
9,547
1,127
126
You do realize that Tesla has partnerships with Toyota and Mercedes, right? They build electric motors, controllers, and batteries for both companies.

And you have to realize, the big manufacturers don't really have an incentive to make a competitor to the Model S when gasoline-powered vehicles are their bread and butter. The Ford Focus Electric flopped, the Volt doesn't sell without thousands in incentives on the hood (in addition to the $7,500 tax credit) and Nissan dropped nearly $10k off the MSRP of the Leaf.

Tesla "gets it", hence why Toyota and Mercedes are partnering with them.

As for dealerships, why the hell would they partner with dealerships? Compared to your average car, the number of things mechanically that could go wrong compared to a gas car are minuscule. No oil changes, no tranny flushes, no brake jobs, no fuel filters -- do you realize that there are few moving parts in an EV motor?

The Volt only has the numbers it has because of the $199/month lease they had for awhile. They were more or less giving them away for several months.
 

waggy

No Lifer
Dec 14, 2000
68,143
10
81
Musk is a billionaire afaik so he can do however he pleases, he has no one to answer to.

wrong.


but the tesla is a good vehicle. wish i could afford one. though where i live it would be useless.

i hope he wins with the "no dealership' lawsuit.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
52,648
46,344
136
Their product's scarcity and thus exclusiveness can work for them - not against them - if the product lives up to the hype. Part of the appeal of a Mercedes is that it is a Mercedes, not a Ford or GM car, even if some Ford or GM cars come close or are equal to a Mercedes product.

Tesla ups the ante on that brand label exclusivity x 10. Their cars are a more rare sight than the established luxury brands. In an age where (at least pretending to be) environmentally aware/friendly is a social boon, their product excels. And they're a discussion-worthy subject ("Where do you charge up? How fast is it? Have you met Musk?") whereas a BMW is just another BMW. Those are all powerful advantages.

It all falls apart though if the product isn't truly luxurious. I've never touched a Tesla car so I've no idea, but I've read good things. I hope for their sake most people think they're worth the money and risk.

I'm seeing an increasing number around downtown Chicago in wealthy areas, often accompanied by ironic vanity plates poking fun at oil. They are becoming a new status symbol...for the moment anyway. In a land of BMWs and Mercs that all look the same it's a way to stand out.
 

Markbnj

Elite Member <br>Moderator Emeritus
Moderator
Sep 16, 2005
15,682
14
81
www.markbetz.net
The OP's analysis is a good one. If Tesla's technology is sufficiently proprietary then they get bought once the market is proven. If the technology is not sufficiently protected then they get stomped once the market is proven. One of those two things will likely happen.
 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
He's clearly a capable guy. Wall Street is incredibly stupid at any given time, but in the long run it's outstanding.

So Tesla may be incredibly overvalued (currently at 7.5M in market cap per vehicle sold each month) or maybe not.
 

Doppel

Lifer
Feb 5, 2011
13,306
3
0
If his cult status is truly like Apple's I am going to max all my credit cards out tomorrow and buy as much damn stock as I can.

And yeah the guy is probably a genius, he's unbelievably successful for his age in multiple fields.
 

BladeVenom

Lifer
Jun 2, 2005
13,365
16
0
Musk is a billionaire afaik so he can do however he pleases, he has no one to answer to.

The law. There are dealership laws in some states that require new cars to be sold by 3rd party dealers. He may have money, but not more money and power than all the dealerships in a state.
 

mnewsham

Lifer
Oct 2, 2010
14,539
428
136
My neighbours had a volt, got rid of it and picked up a tesla model S performance(upgraded faster version).
My boss is currently looking for a new car, he drives an '08 XJ-R but dislikes the newer XJ designs, he has been looking at Maserati but doesn't like it as much as his current jag. He has however just started looking at the tesla model S and is thinking about picking one up.
 

Baked

Lifer
Dec 28, 2004
36,052
17
81
If his cult status is truly like Apple's I am going to max all my credit cards out tomorrow and buy as much damn stock as I can.

And yeah the guy is probably a genius, he's unbelievably successful for his age in multiple fields.

I still kick myself for not buying Apple stocks with my life savings in my early college years when Jobs was out and the stock was valued at under $20. Fuck.
 

NFS4

No Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
72,636
47
91
I'm planning to get the Tesla that looks like the BMW X6... :biggrin:

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