Math is fun: US economy prediction by David Schweikert (R)

[Brainonska511]

The best part will be when it's four years of 'let's see how it all plays out before criticizing' followed immediately by 'he's out of office so let's move on'. (assuming his next coup attempt is unsuccessful, of course)

"You can't hold me accountable for my past actions or future actions."

 

[repoman0]

Maybe a better way of making my point is that my example of 6% debt growth combined with 2% GDP growth, which you say can continue indefinitely, will eventually result in interest payments on the debt making up 100% of all economic activity. I am too lazy to calculate when but the math is simple and that is the end result. So what changes to make that result not happen? Obviously things break down far before that.

The answer to this btw is in 78 years. That’s when there’s another GDP of government interest payments for rich people alongside the GDP for peasants who have to work for their money. Something will break before we get there, not sure what.

It’s wild to me that discussing balancing the budget is taboo or something among liberals when it’s not balanced in the first place because of tax cuts and lack of tax enforcement for rich people.

 

[fskimospy]

"You can't hold me accountable for my past actions or future actions."

The goal is to avoid an awkward situation of criticizing someone on their political sports team.

Reminds me of Trump's various court cases. It went from 'he's innocent until proven guilty so let's see the court cases play out' to 'the court was unfair so that doesn't count'. They never cared about if Trump was convicted or not - they just wanted the problem to go away so as to not feel bad for supporting him.

 

[Brainonska511]

It’s wild to me that discussing balancing the budget is taboo or something among liberals when it’s not balanced in the first place because of tax cuts and lack of tax enforcement for rich people.

I think what's taboo among some is that taxes will have to go up on many people, not just the rich, to pay for social programs, and that's fine because Americans are generally well off and can afford to spread the wealth around more.

 

[fskimospy]

I think what's taboo among some is that taxes will have to go up on many people, not just the rich, to pay for social programs, and that's fine because Americans are generally well off and can afford to spread the wealth around more.

Also I don't think liberals are against balancing the budget at all. Right now balancing the budget makes a TON of sense! We have full employment and inflation that's running a bit higher than target - decreasing the deficit would lower inflation and we have some unemployment runway to use.

The debt hysteria stuff is nonsense but balancing the budget isn't really about long term debt it's about employment and inflation.

 

[Fenixgoon]

I think what's taboo among some is that taxes will have to go up on many people, not just the rich, to pay for social programs, and that's fine because Americans are generally well off and can afford to spread the wealth around more.

I don't think people realize how much better things can get for a little more tax money. And "taxes go up" doesn't say how it's distirbuted. The Uber rich should get the shit taxed out of them. I'm absolutely fine paying more taxes if it means we get UHC and many other benefits of a modern industrialized nation

 

[Brainonska511]

Also I don't think liberals are against balancing the budget at all. Right now balancing the budget makes a TON of sense! We have full employment and inflation that's running a bit higher than target - decreasing the deficit would lower inflation and we have some unemployment runway to use.

The debt hysteria stuff is nonsense but balancing the budget isn't really about long term debt it's about employment and inflation.

Yeah. Running a balanced budget or a surplus in good times is good - gives room to maneuver when we hit rocky roads again.

But I also agree the debt hysteria is fake outrage. Conservatives don't give 2 shits about it, and we should stop treating them like they're serious.

 

[Brainonska511]

I don't think people realize how much better things can get for a little more tax money. And "taxes go up" doesn't say how it's distirbuted. The Uber rich should get the shit taxed out of them. I'm absolutely fine paying more taxes if it means we get UHC and many other benefits of a modern industrialized nation

Yes. I saw it said a few weeks ago that if we didn't have Bush and Trump tax cuts, there would be a substantial surplus. And yes, extremely well off should be taxed way more

 

[Jaskalas]

It’s wild to me that discussing balancing the budget is taboo or something among liberals when it’s not balanced in the first place because of tax cuts and lack of tax enforcement for rich people.

In my lifetime...

• Only Democrat Presidents have seen the budget move closer to balanced.
• Only Republican Presidents have damaged and inflated the budget deficit.

It's wild to me that you think there is even anything to discuss. Anyone who cares about the deficit is already, correctly, voting Democrat.

 

[repoman0]

In my lifetime...

• Only Democrat Presidents have seen the budget move closer to balanced.
• Only Republican Presidents have damaged and inflated the budget deficit.

It's wild to me that you think there is even anything to discuss. Anyone who cares about the deficit is already, correctly, voting Democrat.

You are stating the obvious dude, not sure why you even felt the need to say this to me. I’m not a republican lol.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

This economy will really be fun when the GOP cuts Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to loot that wealth to give to the robber barons like Elon with the reconciliation bill they're working on. Wonder how many grannies will have to die of starvation in the streets before the people burn the nation down like the French would.

 

[ivwshane]

You are stating the obvious dude, not sure why you even felt the need to say this to me. I’m not a republican lol.

Because the post he responded to made it sound like you were claiming that liberals don’t like to talk about balancing the budget when that’s absolutely not true.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

This economy will really be fun when the GOP cuts Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to loot that wealth to give to the robber barons like Elon with the reconciliation bill they're working on. Wonder how many grannies will have to die of starvation in the streets before the people burn the nation down like the French would.

- I'm 40 and have been told all my life by (usually laughing) Boomer's "thanks for the social security, shame it won't be there for you when you retire" so purely out of spite and vindictiveness I would love to see both SS and MC gutted and payouts reduced or eliminated NOW.

At least I have plenty of time to plan for the fallout, and in a perfect world my SS/MC taxes would go down.

Let's get Gramps back out in the fields to replace the missing migrant workers, his body can fertilize the soil where it falls.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

- I'm 40 and have been told all my life by (usually laughing) Boomer's "thanks for the social security, shame it won't be there for you when you retire" so purely out of spite and vindictiveness I would love to see both SS and MC gutted and payouts reduced or eliminated NOW.

At least I have plenty of time to plan for the fallout, and in a perfect world my SS/MC taxes would go down.

Let's get Gramps back out in the fields to replace the missing migrant workers, his body can fertilize the soil where it falls.

I mean we all have mothers and fathers don't we? And I have already paid into this system for more than 25 years.

 

[Jaskalas]

You are stating the obvious dude, not sure why you even felt the need to say this to me. I’m not a republican lol.

I see. Something was missed in my reading of the previous exchange.

 

[repoman0]

I see. Something was missed in my reading of the previous exchange.

I am only arguing that interest payments on the debt will eventually cause problems if we keep adding 6+% per annum because that is how exponential growth works. There are only no problems if debt ownership is pretty strictly domestic and fairly spread around the population.

It’s already a tool for the rich to get richer at the expense of taxpayers, wait until federal interest payments create an entire side GDP that has nothing to do with doing productive work.

 

[Jaskalas]

I am only arguing that interest payments on the debt will eventually cause problems because that is how exponential growth works.

Sep 2024: Interest payments on the national debt top $1 trillion​

With the Federal Reserve holding benchmark rates at their highest in 23 years, the government has laid out $1.049 trillion on debt service, up 30% from the same period a year ago.​

I do wonder, adding nearly $2 trillion to it and paying $1 trillion does sound like quite the achievement. "Thankfully" the voters voted to FAFO with regards to the budget. They keep doing that, so the debt keeps rising faster. I could agree it must have consequence at some point. Difficult to guess where that point may be without proper context and historical knowledge on such finance. It would take a course on the subject to yield proper reasoning one way or the other.

It has been argued here before that it, in essence, does not matter. Thus far it really hasn't. But Republican propaganda has added confusion to the mix as they equate Democrat spending with inflation. Not their own spending of course. But Biden happened to win the lottery to be left holding the bag as the consequences for COVID came due. Thus the Republican argument was given fuel and insanity rises.

 

[ElFenix]

This is exactly what they have been saying for roughly a half century of being wrong.

At some point people should just admit it.

they've actually been predicting it since david ricardo.

 

[ElFenix]

And 30% and rising is going overseas. What percentage of US GDP going from taxpayers to foreign creditors is acceptable to you?

this isn't even true.