Math is fun: US economy prediction by David Schweikert (R)

[biostud]

Not being American I didn't know him, but Wow! Why is he not more known? There's a sensible well articulated Republican politician.

It's a long view, but it looks pretty bad for you guys.

Is there something off about him?

 

[Greenman]

Only watched the first bit, but I've been assured by several people here that the debt doesn't matter at all. I think that's insane and that the system has to crash, but I've also been assured that I'm not bright enough to understand complex economics. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

 

[JD50]

Only watched the first bit, but I've been assured by several people here that the debt doesn't matter at all. I think that's insane and that the system has to crash, but I've also been assured that I'm not bright enough to understand complex economics. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

In 4 years Trump added 8.4 Trillion in debt and you voted for him again, it seems you're the one who thinks debt doesn't matter.

Trump and Biden: The National Debt | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

The national debt is on course to reach a record share of the economy under the next presidential administration, due in part to policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden during their ti

www.crfb.org

 

[repoman0]

This guy sounds like an old school fiscal conservative which is a respectable position to hold, IMO. I also don't think we can grow our way out of increasing taxes, reducing expenses, generally balancing the budget. It's exponential growth where the debt is growing faster than GDP, so the ratio goes to infinity eventually -- obviously something has to change.

Hopefully he can stick to his principles and not vote for the explosion of debt caused by tax cuts for rich people that Trump and his cabinet of lords and dukes want.

 

[Greenman]

In 4 years Trump added 8.4 Trillion in debt and you voted for him again, it seems you're the one who thinks debt doesn't matter.

Trump and Biden: The National Debt | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

The national debt is on course to reach a record share of the economy under the next presidential administration, due in part to policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden during their ti

www.crfb.org

Seems like he's on a different trajectory this time, guess we'll know in 4 years.

 

[biostud]

Only watched the first bit, but I've been assured by several people here that the debt doesn't matter at all. I think that's insane and that the system has to crash, but I've also been assured that I'm not bright enough to understand complex economics. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Try watching it all, as it is not about blaming either sides, but rather some af the major financial troubles you're looking into.

 

[JD50]

Seems like he's on a different trajectory this time, guess we'll know in 4 years.

LMAO he has another round of tax cuts planned that will cost Trillions more. He claimed the tariffs would pay for these tax cuts... and then stopped the tariffs when Mexico said they'd add 10k troops to the border. Do you even pay attention to the shit he's doing?

 

[biostud]

This guy sounds like an old school fiscal conservative which is a respectable position to hold, IMO. I also don't think we can grow our way out of increasing taxes, reducing expenses, generally balancing the budget. It's exponential growth where the debt is growing faster than GDP, so the ratio goes to infinity eventually -- obviously something has to change.

Hopefully he can stick to his principles and not vote for the explosion of debt caused by tax cuts for rich people that Trump and his cabinet of lords and dukes want.

It is not just growth, but increased efficiency and a demographic challenge.

With a growing part of population being retired, who will pay for Medicaid/Medicaid.

 

[sdifox]

It is not just growth, but increased efficiency and a demographic challenge.

With a growing part of population being retired, who will pay for Medicaid/Medicaid.

Those are pinko commie ideas that has no place in the Capitalist Paradise!

 

[brycejones]

Seems like he's on a different trajectory this time, guess we'll know in 4 years.

You have a "SUCKER" tat on your forehead don't you?

 

[MrSquished]

LMAO he has another round of tax cuts planned that will cost Trillions more. He claimed the tariffs would pay for these tax cuts... and then stopped the tariffs when Mexico said they'd add 10k troops to the border. Do you even pay attention to the shit he's doing?

You have a "SUCKER" tat on your forehead don't you?

Too many people act like @Greenman is acting in good faith. He loves the shittiness and the Nazi white nationalist bigoted agenda of Trump and is not capable of acting in good faith - these tens of millions of Americans lack basic decency and are morally and intellectually bankrupt. Please, for the love of God, learn what these evil people are. Like all the worst populations in history.

 

[brycejones]

Too many people act like @Greenman is acting in good faith. He loves the shittiness and the Nazi white nationalist bigoted agenda of Trump and is not capable of acting in good faith - these tens of millions of Americans lack basic decency and are morally and intellectually bankrupt. Please, for the love of God, learn what these evil people are. Like all the worst populations in history.

If I thought he was acting in good faith I would be less snarky.

 

[soulcougher73]

Too many people act like @Greenman is acting in good faith. He loves the shittiness and the Nazi white nationalist bigoted agenda of Trump and is not capable of acting in good faith - these tens of millions of Americans lack basic decency and are morally and intellectually bankrupt. Please, for the love of God, learn what these evil people are. Like all the worst populations in history.

easier to just put him and others like him on ignore. if nobody responds to their shit points they will eventually get bored and leave. he has nothing of value to add to our lives.

 

[Moonbeam]

Too many people act like @Greenman is acting in good faith. He loves the shittiness and the Nazi white nationalist bigoted agenda of Trump and is not capable of acting in good faith - these tens of millions of Americans lack basic decency and are morally and intellectually bankrupt. Please, for the love of God, learn what these evil people are. Like all the worst populations in history.

You become easily unhinged. Do you think you’re rational? Such righteous indignation suggest it’s sourced in anger at yourself. Remember deplorables are deplorable because they were made to feel that way.

 

[MrSquished]

You become easily unhinged. Do you think you’re rational? Such righteous indignation suggest it’s sourced in anger at yourself. Remember deplorables are deplorable because they were made to feel that way.

Oh look. It's the guy who is completely ignorant of History and actual human nature.

I wish I could live in as much ignorance as you go let me tell you

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Only watched the first bit, but I've been assured by several people here that the debt doesn't matter at all.

LOL bitching when you keep voting for the people who blow the deficits to hell to fund tax cuts to the oligarchy every single time they get elected.

 

[biostud]

Hey guys please stay on topic.
@DAPUNISHER

 

[JTsyo]

If you take out COVID spending tax cuts account for about half the deficit we have.

Tax Cuts Are Primarily Responsible for the Increasing Debt Ratio

Without the Bush and Trump tax cuts, debt as a percentage of the economy would be declining permanently.

www.americanprogress.org

 

[Moonbeam]

Oh look. It's the guy who is completely ignorant of History and actual human nature.

I wish I could live in as much ignorance as you go let me tell you

Do you ever suspect that history might be what the historians who wrote it wanted to see it as themselves? Wouldn't history be tainted by the people who define what it is. Wouldn't then what you call history also just be how you imagine it to be based on whatever facts you chose to believe are actual? Wouldn't then what others call history, like your own idea of what history is, just be an alternative subjective point of view you don't happen to agree with. Isn't it arrogance to assume you know what history is? Couldn't that grandiose assumption just be a form of self flattery there to hide how you truly feel about yourself?

And doesn't the same apply to what human nature actually is, just received opinions from from your particular background and culture. Seems to me you don't really reflect much or examine yourself very carefully. Wouldn't human nature be known only to people who have died, overcome their conditioning and experienced their native birth state. Isn't human nature really just human being, untainted by conditioning. I'm betting ignorant people don't believe such a state exists.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I figure it's generally well understood that if you give a flying fuck about the deficit you would get on your knees and pray for a long run of slightly conservative Congress working with a dem president.

As far as I can tell, that is the only mix that ever seems to produce real meaningful reductions in our national deficit.

Every other combo appears to be nightmarish:

- Dem Congress + Dem president: easy on the tax policy, heavy on the govt services + regs.

-Pub Congress + Pub President: Pubs gone wild on tax cuts, but also their meth addicted mid-western base is hopelessly addicted to the govt teat, so no meaningful spending cuts.

- Dem Congress + Pub President: rare, but when it happens you still see heavy services + regs legislation only somewhat curbed by the president. Either you get gridlock, or govt shutdowns, or whatever, none of which reduces debt.

Dems being center right and pubs being fucking whacko right usually means a Pub legislature + Dem president = substantial cuts/leaning of government + public private partnerships etc to increase "efficiency" while generally social liberties etc are preserved.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Hey guys please stay on topic.
@DAPUNISHER

The admins police this forum.

 

[brycejones]

It is not just growth, but increased efficiency and a demographic challenge.

With a growing part of population being retired, who will pay for Medicaid/Medicaid.

Three things:

1. GOP loves to spend without taxing. Making the challenge harder.
2. Democrats (who in the 80s were hammered as "Tax and Spend") - Generally believe revenues need to be increased to cover spending.
3. The way out of the demographic problem is sustained immigration inflows. Without immigration the US already be looking at population decline and a rapid worsening of the situation.

Three is why it's especially stupid for the GOP to be so virulently anti-immigrant. Often times the like to talk about "making sure people do it the right way". But the truth is they have worked to narrow and make it more difficult to "do it the right way". One of the things on their hit list this time around is so-called chain migration where migrants who have become citizens bring their family members over.

There are ways out of our problem, we lack the political will to fight for them.

 

[biostud]

Three things:

1. GOP loves to spend without taxing. Making the challenge harder.
2. Democrats (who in the 80s were hammered as "Tax and Spend") - Generally believe revenues need to be increased to cover spending.
3. The way out of the demographic problem is sustained immigration inflows. Without immigration the US already be looking at population decline and a rapid worsening of the situation.

Three is why it's especially stupid for the GOP to be so virulently anti-immigrant. Often times the like to talk about "making sure people do it the right way". But the truth is they have worked to narrow and make it more difficult to "do it the right way". One of the things on their hit list this time around is so-called chain migration where migrants who have become citizens bring their family members over.

There are ways out of our problem, we lack the political will to fight for them.

But with immigration, as is also the challenge in Europe, there is a influence from culture of the immigrants, which can lead to conflicts and the fear of loosing "your own" culture, which as I understand is one of the major fears of MAGA, and maybe rightfully so. If we look at Sweden, the integration of foreign culture and immigratants has been less than successful. And if you move from being a majority in a society to a minority, it is understandable why you might feel threatened.

Most developed countries are facing a demographic challenge, and it can take a lot of political currage to handle it. In Denmark every five years, the politicians have made an agreement about raising the retirement age, depending on the average living age, so now the public retirement age for my generation will be 70 years.

I know it is much more difficult to change a large country like the US, but maybe after Trump has burned everything to the ground, you can find common ground to build next generation of public sector.

 

[fskimospy]

Only watched the first bit, but I've been assured by several people here that the debt doesn't matter at all. I think that's insane and that the system has to crash, but I've also been assured that I'm not bright enough to understand complex economics. I guess we'll find out soon enough.

All that was pointed out to you was that conservatives have made this exact same prediction for literally decades and have been wrong over and over again.

What I think is most interesting is that being obviously wrong repeatedly does nothing to change your mind.

 

[repoman0]

All that was pointed out to you was that conservatives have made this exact same prediction for literally decades and have been wrong over and over again.

What I think is most interesting is that being obviously wrong repeatedly does nothing to change your mind.

They’re wrong until they’re right, and they will be right eventually.

When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels? — Penn Wharton Budget Model

PWBM estimates that---even under myopic expectations---financial markets cannot sustain more than the next 20 years of accumulated deficits projected under current U.S. fiscal policy. Forward-looking financial markets are, therefore, effectively betting that future fiscal policy will provide substan

budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu