Marriage gap could sway elections

[ProfJohn]

From the USA Today some highlights:

House districts held by Republicans are full of married people. Democratic districts are stacked with people who have never married. This ?marriage gap? could play a role in the Nov. 7 congressional elections. Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take control of the House of Representatives.

Twenty-seven of the 38 Republican-held districts with seats considered vulnerable by independent political analysts have fewer married people than found in the average GOP district. The USA TODAY analysis also shows that:

?Republicans control 49 of the 50 districts with the highest rates of married people.

?Democrats represent all 50 districts that have the highest rates of adults who have never married.

The political tug-of-war is between people who are married and those who have never been.

The ?never married? group covers a variety of groups who form the Democratic base: young people, those who marry late in life, single parents, gays, and heterosexuals who live together.

and

Most serious Democratic challenges this fall are in Republican-controlled House districts that have lower marriage rates.

For example, the two seats most likely to switch from Republican to Democratic are Arizona's 8th District and Colorado's 7th District, according to the non-partisan National Journal. The districts ? in which Republican incumbents are not seeking re-election ? rank 251st and 307th respectively in marriage rates among the 435 districts.

Of the five Republicans who have the lowest rates of married people in their districts, four are in tough battles with Democrats. On the other side, Rep. Melissa Bean, D-Ill., whose district has a high marriage rate, faces a strong GOP challenge.

Rep. John Linder, R-Ga., whose district has the highest marriage rate (66.1%), says the gap exists because ?people get more conservative when they settle down.? Democratic pollster Mark Mellman says the gap is magnified because a greater percentage of married people vote than unmarried people.

and

Republican House members overwhelmingly come from districts that have high percentages of married people and lots of children, according to a USA TODAY analysis of 2005 Census Bureau data released last month.

GOP Congress members represent 39.2 million children younger than 18, about 7 million more than Democrats. Republicans average 7,000 more children per district.

Many Democrats represent areas that have many single people and relatively few children. Democratic districts that have large numbers of children tend to be predominantly Hispanic or, to a lesser extent, African-American.

This ?fertility gap? is crucial to understanding the differences between liberals and conservatives, says Arthur Brooks, a professor of public administration at Syracuse University. These childbearing patterns shape divisions over issues such as welfare, education and child tax credits, he says.

Wow so maybe if we let gay people marry we would end up with more Republicans hmmm
Marriage gap could sway elections
?Fertility gap' helps explain political divide
Finally
text chart of 50 districts with most and least married people

 

[Aisengard]

Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

 

[Strk]

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

 

[ProfJohn]

This data matches really well if you look at states and their political leanings compared to % of married people.

The northeast is the only part of the country where over half of adult are single, and it is very Democratic.
The rest of the country is over 50% married, and with some exceptions tends to lean Republican in Presidential elections.
Democratic states and % of married adults
Cali=47%
Hawaii=48%
Washington, Oregon and the midwest states are the only places in the country where this data does not ring to be true.
Census data
2004 electoral map

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Strk

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

That's because there are less of them getting married.

 

[Moonbeam]

Republicans have spend billions creating the fraudulent notions that they are for family values. This again is a case where Americans are such dick heads the f themselves in the ass. Because people hate themselves they have no healthy center from which to see when they are being manipulated. The result is that Republican policies are able to destroy the very families that worship them, as the real benefits go to the rich. Money is all that matters and the American family can rot in hell. The manipulator despised the people he can manipulate.

 

[Forsythe]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Strk

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

That's because there are less of them getting married.

Do you understand how percentages work?

 

[joshw10]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Strk

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

That's because there are less of them getting married.

There are slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans

 

[fornax]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
This data matches really well if you look at states and their political leanings compared to % of married people.

I was sure that a Prof... would know that one says these data

 

[Strk]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Strk

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

That's because there are less of them getting married.

And? Only those who really want to get married are likely to get married in blue states, it seems. I don't think a person is taking marriage very seriously if they're getting married right away and then, by the end of his or her life, has three or four divorces.

The truth is that the deep south -- probably our most conservative/fundamentalist Christian section of the country -- has a divorce rate of nearly 3x what my "liberal" state of MA. We may have less getting married, but who is taking it more seriously? The person who got married at 18, divorced at 19, married at 20, divorced at 23 and married again at 25 or the person(s) who waited until they were 25-30 and lived together for the rest of their lives.

Oh, and it's based off a percentage, which is kind of a key point.

 

[glugglug]

Originally posted by: Strk

Originally posted by: Aisengard
Democrats are divorced. Republicans are unhappily married.

Democrats have a lower divorce rate, so try again

Makes perfect sense. Repukelicans are more trigger happy, and like to jump in to things.

Like Iraq, or marriage.

 

[ProfJohn]

Nice to see that everyone pretty much ignores the OP and instead engages in an argument on the semantics of who gets married or divorced and at what age and how many times.

Let's go back to the point of the story.
People who are married tend to vote Republican, while single people tend to vote Democratic.

That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

 

[Craig234]

I think this was very interesting information. And I think it's a concern as well, why marriage affects those political views so much - and in such a harmful, wrong direction.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Craig234
I think this was very interesting information. And I think it's a concern as well, why marriage affects those political views so much - and in such a harmful, wrong direction.

You mean in the right direction

 

[Craig234]

I'll agree to your correction. In a harmful, right(-wing) direction.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

No surprise. Once you get married and walk in to the "real world" you realize that pesky little things like "tax cuts" are a wee bit more important to you.

 

[Aisengard]

Oh, so only people who are married can experience the 'real world'?

You are so clueless.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

No surprise. Once you get married and walk in to the "real world" you realize that pesky little things like "tax cuts" are a wee bit more important to you.

I was with you guys right up to this horseshit (well, most of the horseshit is from Pabster, but ProfJohn is a little off base too). Getting married doesn't suddenly make you more conservative across the board, it simply changes what you view as the most important issues. A person who is pro-gay rights BEFORE they get married is going to be just as pro-gay rights AFTER they get married, the difference is where fighting for those rights will land on the list of issues they care about. This isn't some defect in either married or single people, no particular world view is more valid than the other, it's simply a matter of what you care about. Single people have much higher disposable income and far fewer of them have children, so trying to buy their support with tax cuts and "think of the children!" issues is not all that effective. Similarly, married people with families end up focusing a lot more of their time an energy on things related to their own families, so coming out in support of issues that don't directly effect them isn't a very good strategy. The validity of tax-cuts in the "real world" is a null argument, as the importance you place on issues like that is directly related to your particular life.

Again, this doesn't mean married people are more conservative or liberals tend to be single, it means that being single or married makes you focus on different things in politics...which means you might vote for a different party than when you were single, even though none of your views on individual issues might have changed. When you're single, a pro-gay rights candidate might get your vote, even though he isn't in favor of tax cuts, because you care more about gay rights than tax cuts. If you get married, that same candidate might seem a lot less attractive to you, although you still care about gay rights, because a tax cut sounds pretty good to you to help support your family.

 

[Tab]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

No surprise. Once you get married and walk in to the "real world" you realize that pesky little things like "tax cuts" are a wee bit more important to you.

I was with you guys right up to this horseshit (well, most of the horseshit is from Pabster, but ProfJohn is a little off base too). Getting married doesn't suddenly make you more conservative across the board, it simply changes what you view as the most important issues. A person who is pro-gay rights BEFORE they get married is going to be just as pro-gay rights AFTER they get married, the difference is where fighting for those rights will land on the list of issues they care about. This isn't some defect in either married or single people, no particular world view is more valid than the other, it's simply a matter of what you care about. Single people have much higher disposable income and far fewer of them have children, so trying to buy their support with tax cuts and "think of the children!" issues is not all that effective. Similarly, married people with families end up focusing a lot more of their time an energy on things related to their own families, so coming out in support of issues that don't directly effect them isn't a very good strategy. The validity of tax-cuts in the "real world" is a null argument, as the importance you place on issues like that is directly related to your particular life.

Again, this doesn't mean married people are more conservative or liberals tend to be single, it means that being single or married makes you focus on different things in politics...which means you might vote for a different party than when you were single, even though none of your views on individual issues might have changed. When you're single, a pro-gay rights candidate might get your vote, even though he isn't in favor of tax cuts, because you care more about gay rights than tax cuts. If you get married, that same candidate might seem a lot less attractive to you, although you still care about gay rights, because a tax cut sounds pretty good to you to help support your family.

Agreed, as I've gotten older I've got a lot more responsibilities as a twenty year old adult. I never really cared about the $50 the government would take out of my paycheck. I was going to High School at that point in my life, didn't need a car and didn't have $15k in college debt. Now, that I?ve moved beyond being a bus boy at a local restaurant I tend to care a lot more when the government takes $250 out of my paycheck.

Maybe, if we didn't mess around in the world I'd be able to keep more of my hard earned money.

 

[Zorba]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Nice to see that everyone pretty much ignores the OP and instead engages in an argument on the semantics of who gets married or divorced and at what age and how many times.

Let's go back to the point of the story.
People who are married tend to vote Republican, while single people tend to vote Democratic.

That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

If you think about what the people above were saying about divorce rate, etc. you'd get a lot of your answer right there.

People in republican states are more likely to get married young. If the majority of marriages happen at age 20 instead of 28 (random number for argument), there will be a higher percentage of married people.

You have to look at which part is the cause and which is the effect. In this case: the cause is that conservatives are more likely to get married young. Effect: conservative states have a higher rate of marriage.

 

[imported_Tango]

Correlation is not causation.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Rainsford
I was with you guys right up to this horseshit (well, most of the horseshit is from Pabster, but ProfJohn is a little off base too). Getting married doesn't suddenly make you more conservative across the board, it simply changes what you view as the most important issues.

Where did I say that?

I simply said that once you become married you tend to be a little more concerned with certain issues, and pay more attention. WTF did your spiel about gays come from? Let's try to stay on-topic here.

 

[ScottyB]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Nice to see that everyone pretty much ignores the OP and instead engages in an argument on the semantics of who gets married or divorced and at what age and how many times.

Let's go back to the point of the story.
People who are married tend to vote Republican, while single people tend to vote Democratic.

That means that getting married causes people to become more conservative. (i.e. Republican)

Right, because correlation is causation. Will you tell me what school you attended? I really would like to know what the greatest institute of education in the world is.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
I was with you guys right up to this horseshit (well, most of the horseshit is from Pabster, but ProfJohn is a little off base too). Getting married doesn't suddenly make you more conservative across the board, it simply changes what you view as the most important issues.

Where did I say that?

I simply said that once you become married you tend to be a little more concerned with certain issues, and pay more attention. WTF did your spiel about gays come from? Let's try to stay on-topic here.

That was an EXAMPLE there, chief, try to keep up.

And that's NOT what you said, you implied that being married somehow makes you part of the "real world" and that being single does not.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: Rainsford

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Rainsford
I was with you guys right up to this horseshit (well, most of the horseshit is from Pabster, but ProfJohn is a little off base too). Getting married doesn't suddenly make you more conservative across the board, it simply changes what you view as the most important issues.

Where did I say that?

I simply said that once you become married you tend to be a little more concerned with certain issues, and pay more attention. WTF did your spiel about gays come from? Let's try to stay on-topic here.

That was an EXAMPLE there, chief, try to keep up.

And that's NOT what you said, you implied that being married somehow makes you part of the "real world" and that being single does not.

People who live in delusions like to call their world real. It's a part of the delusion.