Markets in a tailspin

[Abwx]

All i can say about those markets is that they are awsome....if i except a nightmare in 2005 when i got stuck for months in an intenable short (and leveraged) position with 100% of the portfolio invested in this disaster..

At the end i didnt even bother to look at the opening of the stock markets, so one day in summer i got to my trading plateform one hour after the market opened in France, and to my surprise the stock i was invested in was losing 10%, wich did put me back on the money, and the trend kept being bear a few hours to the point that i closed the position with a huge benefit just before the market somewhat recovered..

It was July, 7 in 2005.....and it was said that rarely the speculators of the City made as much money in a single day, prove that the misfortune of the ones is the fortune of the others...

 

[Vic]

lol, no. Buy low, sell high.

This is a market collapse.

-John

Doesn't it ever bother you to be wrong about everything?

 

[JSt0rm]

But but but, in 2011 they said gold was heading to $3,000!!

I'd love to pull up some of those gold pumping threads from back then with people bragging about buying the shit out of it at $1600+ an ounce. Then add to their losses the compounding inflation since then which is what they were trying to protect against...

Total suckers game. People have figured out the right are gullible as fuck if you combine anything with obama.

 

[Victorian Gray]

Doesn't it ever bother you to be wrong about everything?

Beer.

 

[shady28]

Doesn't it ever bother you to be wrong about everything?

The only thing is, he's right.

Just take a look at asset classes. Gold, oil, copper, etc.

Treasury yields are not much off their low, which was a 30-35 year low. That means there's high demand for low-interest bearing relatively safe investments. They will make even lower lows before this is over.

Essentially, everything is down hard except the dollar.

It's classic debt driven deflationary bust.

Of course, unemployment is low and GDP looks good. It always looks good at a major top though. The markets are predictive of the economy, not the other way around.

3-9 months from now the economy is going to be in a tailspin too. Maybe sooner.

 

[Exterous]

I will admit I am slightly concerned at how heavy handed the Chinese are being in regards to their stock market. Not being content with the various measures already used:

People's Bank of China purchased blue-chip stocks and requested that state-owned banks buy more yuan on its behalf.

Shanghai's gains were also underpinned by news that pension funds will invest $313 billion in stocks and other assets as soon as possible,

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/japan-china-in-focus-for-asian-equities.html

 

[Exterous]

I just don't understand people who argue that once you're retired, you should shift your investments into something super-safe (which almost by definition is not even going to outpace inflation). Why are people so afraid of volatility? Assuming you're investing for the long-term, and don't try to pick "winners," over time volatility is totally irrelevant.

I don't think many recommend 100% invested into something 'super safe'. The goal is just to try and soften any blows caused by a decrease in stock market. If you have to draw down your funds during a crash in your one and only asset class you will be forced to sell at a much higher loss leaving fewer shares around to recover and make gains going forward. I am sure there is a piece of mind component as well

And if we are judging people on their investment choices we could wonder why you are investing all of your retirement money in the S&P 500 when its pretty well known that a substantial investment in mid and small cap to go along with large cap has a long history (going back to 1975) of better results than just large cap alone while having almost no increase in risk

http://www.morningstar.com/products/pdf/MGI_StockResearch.pdf

https://www.ridgeworth.com/includes/files/assets/files/1281968949_AddMidCapsWhitePaper.pdf

http://investing.covestor.com/2014/09/mid-cap-stocks-belong-portfolio

 

[piasabird]

The federal reserve is running a printing press. What this means is that the Federal Reserve is insolvent. Our economy is being run by an organization that is not financially solvent. The more fake money they print the less our real money is worth. Money has no real worth and could disappear tomorrow. Buy some gold.

I watched a video that looked and compared the Margin rate of the federal reserve in the 1970's and compared it to the margin rate of the federal reserve of today. The Federal reserve has printed Trillions in paper money or debt and only has assets in the billions.

If you have been watching the markets you should know that China is having serious financial problems. What happens if we can not borrow any more money from China?

The great depression is already here.

 

[Vic]

The only thing is, he's right.

Just take a look at asset classes. Gold, oil, copper, etc.

Treasury yields are not much off their low, which was a 30-35 year low. That means there's high demand for low-interest bearing relatively safe investments. They will make even lower lows before this is over.

Essentially, everything is down hard except the dollar.

It's classic debt driven deflationary bust.

Of course, unemployment is low and GDP looks good. It always looks good at a major top though. The markets are predictive of the economy, not the other way around.

3-9 months from now the economy is going to be in a tailspin too. Maybe sooner.

I'm not going to argue with you. Instead, I'm just going to invite you to take a look at all of the investment advice that the RWN noise machine has been pumping out the past several years and compare it against actual market performance. Real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.

I understand why the right is so angry. I do. In 2007, they probably owned a house or 2 and had some other assets. Today, they probably rent their dwelling, have a foreclosure on their credit, and lost the last of their portfolio when gold tanked.
My issue with the right is that they are blaming the wrong people for their poor financial decisions.

 

[Abwx]

The federal reserve is running a printing press. What this means is that the Federal Reserve is insolvent. Our economy is being run by an organization that is not financially solvent.

It is not insolvent at all, it is backed by the state regalian right to levy taxes, so it will be insolvent the days the whole US citizenry become insolvent...

 

[Vic]

The federal reserve is running a printing press. What this means is that the Federal Reserve is insolvent. Our economy is being run by an organization that is not financially solvent. The more fake money they print the less our real money is worth. Money has no real worth and could disappear tomorrow. Buy some gold.

I watched a video that looked and compared the Margin rate of the federal reserve in the 1970's and compared it to the margin rate of the federal reserve of today. The Federal reserve has printed Trillions in paper money or debt and only has assets in the billions.

If you have been watching the markets you should know that China is having serious financial problems. What happens if we can not borrow any more money from China?

The great depression is already here.

Haven't you lost enough already?

 

[fskimospy]

The only thing is, he's right.

Just take a look at asset classes. Gold, oil, copper, etc.

Treasury yields are not much off their low, which was a 30-35 year low. That means there's high demand for low-interest bearing relatively safe investments. They will make even lower lows before this is over.

Essentially, everything is down hard except the dollar.

It's classic debt driven deflationary bust.

Of course, unemployment is low and GDP looks good. It always looks good at a major top though. The markets are predictive of the economy, not the other way around.

3-9 months from now the economy is going to be in a tailspin too. Maybe sooner.

So says the guy who predicted stocks tanking in 2014.

 

[fskimospy]

The federal reserve is running a printing press. What this means is that the Federal Reserve is insolvent. Our economy is being run by an organization that is not financially solvent. The more fake money they print the less our real money is worth. Money has no real worth and could disappear tomorrow. Buy some gold.

I watched a video that looked and compared the Margin rate of the federal reserve in the 1970's and compared it to the margin rate of the federal reserve of today. The Federal reserve has printed Trillions in paper money or debt and only has assets in the billions.

If you have been watching the markets you should know that China is having serious financial problems. What happens if we can not borrow any more money from China?

The great depression is already here.

Hey everyone, BUY GOLD :

Hasn't Glenn Beck and other hucksters fleeced you for enough of your money yet?

 

[dullard]

Hey everyone, BUY GOLD :

Hasn't Glenn Beck and other hucksters fleeced you for enough of your money yet?

Shhh. I'm making a killing shorting precious metals. I need people like piasabird to provide that money to me. Let him pump it, so I can dump it.

 

[brianmanahan]

The federal reserve is running a printing press.

actually that is the US mint

The Federal reserve has printed Trillions in paper money or debt and only has assets in the billions.

probably because they give most of their income back to the treasury every year

The great depression is already here.

this one sure seems better than the one in the 30's

 

[JSt0rm]

pissedbird is a retard.

 

[Balt]

I've moved 100% of my assets into gold and non-hybrid seeds. I suggest everyone else do the same.


In all seriousness, though, if your retirement is a ways off you should be increasing your 401k contributions and the like during the periods when the market is down. There is a risk, of course, but there's also a risk when your money is sitting under the mattress and not earning anything for you.

 

[JSt0rm]

I bought all ar15's and ammo. Expect to sell them for at least 500% profit when obama bans guns after declaring himself president for life.

 

[shady28]

I'm not going to argue with you. Instead, I'm just going to invite you to take a look at all of the investment advice that the RWN noise machine has been pumping out the past several years and compare it against actual market performance. Real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.

I understand why the right is so angry. I do. In 2007, they probably owned a house or 2 and had some other assets. Today, they probably rent their dwelling, have a foreclosure on their credit, and lost the last of their portfolio when gold tanked.
My issue with the right is that they are blaming the wrong people for their poor financial decisions.

Actually I was kind of hoping this might be a thread about markets, not politics.

And I'm not sure who you think you're talking to. I have not been unemployed since 1994 and my income has doubled in the last 8 years.

 

[BoberFett]

I understand why the right is so angry. I do. In 2007, they probably owned a house or 2 and had some other assets. Today, they probably rent their dwelling, have a foreclosure on their credit, and lost the last of their portfolio when gold tanked.
My issue with the right is that they are blaming the wrong people for their poor financial decisions.

Then I assume you have the same issue with the left? I mean, it's poor financial decisions that's hurting the poor and middle class left, right?

Oh wait, that's not their fault. Only the right is responsible for their own situations. The left is only poor because all of those damn rich people.

I'll give you a 9.5 for your mental gymnastics floor routine.

 

[Vic]

Then I assume you have the same issue with the left? I mean, it's poor financial decisions that's hurting the poor and middle class left, right?

Oh wait, that's not their fault. Only the right is responsible for their own situations. The left is only poor because all of those damn rich people.

I'll give you a 9.5 for your mental gymnastics floor routine.

I don't think you understand what I'm saying here so please let me rephrase it.
If I could go back in time to 2007 and then make all my investment decisions by doing nothing more than exactly the opposite of what the conservative media has been telling its followers to do, I would be a very very wealthy person.
This isn't political opinion. This is fact.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't think you understand what I'm saying here so please let me rephrase it.
If I could go back in time to 2007 and then make all my investment decisions by doing nothing more than exactly the opposite of what the conservative media has been telling its followers to do, I would be a very very wealthy person.
This isn't political opinion. This is fact.

The media, which at the time was mainly CNBC, was and probably still is worthless. And some online forums completely misled people. I don't know if Fox Business is any better but I suspect it's not. The only network I bother with anymore is Bloomberg. They tend to interview analysts mainly rather than c-suite types so you tend to get a more objective viewpoint. You'll always have people on tv who are talking their book, but you're better off listening to the analysts and hedgies if you want to at least try to get a balanced perspective.

 

[Exterous]

conservative media

Why only conservative media? Its been my experience that the media in general gives terrible advice and is focused more on what makes people tune in\read\click than real market advice

 

[shady28]

So says the guy who predicted stocks tanking in 2014.

Reference? Or are you talking about this post from June 2014?

Pay attention to what was actually said.

Commodities and stocks are entirely different.

Commodities are still down about 40-50% from their 2008 peak. In most economic books, this spells deflation :

(click the 10 year chart)
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:DJUBS

The bailout money does not for the most part flow into commodities. It flows into big banks and Wall Street, where much of it then flows into stocks. I say flows because the Fed is still throwing ~$85B / month at it.

In reality all that these trillions of dollars - $4T by the Federal Reserve, and 2 or 3 trillion by the Treasury - all it has done is tread water.

Most like to put it in perspective vs GDP. So vs GDP in the USA, it looks like this (1989- June 2014) :

My take on the above two charts is :

1 - Commodities collapsed and haven't recovered

2 - Stocks are in an artificially created bubble (thanks to trillions in bail-outs aimed at wall street that continue to this day) that will likely end in another collapse.

There is definitely a wealth effect to stocks in that people feel wealthier and hence spend more - which should in turn increase GDP. But ultimately the stock prices have to be backed up by actual "production" in the form of that GDP.

If stock prices aren't backed up by growing GDP (something real and not funny money from an electronic print press) - and it doesn't look like they are - then it will correct to whatever actual production can support.

Or maybe this one from 2013 where I said we were 4-6 years from a bottom in the cycle? 2017-2019 sounds about right for a bottom.

I don't think that anything the Fed has done has really impacted things, certainly not as much as one would think.

Printing money really doesn't do anything except destroy savers. It doesn't produce anything, it doesn't cause anything to be produced.

Consider: If the money had not been printed, then we would have had deflation. At the same time, wages would have gone down much more.

So we would have made less, and things would cost less, but we would be losing income more than the decrease in costs.

Instead we make more, but things cost more than the extra we make.

No one knows if we'll have hyper inflation or deflation in the currency. That's up to the money presses. But as in the above example - the net result will be the same either way.

But it's pretty much for sure we have another 4-6 years left in this business cycle before things bottom. Even Soros and Buffett have alluded to this many times over the last decade.

 

[shady28]

Hate to interrupt all the critical talk about Trump, Hillary, redefining personal pronouns, gay marriage, etc with trivial stuff but...

It's not over.