March Job Growth Strongest in 4 Years

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dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Michael
>>>"Best darned post in P&N yet, thank you Michael

"The companies I talk to are all slowly opening the hiring floodgates."

So, will they "open the floodgates" the next few months to assure their Fearless Liar gets re-elected and then just lay off the whole bunch they just hired right after the election?"<<<

Dave - I hate to interject reality into your world, but most busines speople I meet are split about 50/50 in terms of supporting or disliking Bush. Not too far off the national numbers. There would be an equal chance that they're holding off an hiring just to make sure he isn't reelected. Besides, much of our bonuses are decided by the profits we make? Why hire and fire (which is really expensive) and keep us from earning our incentive pay? I thought we were evil and greedy?

The truth is that demand has picked up, not only in the USA, but all over the world. That means that companies need to produce more which is driving hiring.

I haven't posted mch in P&N because I got tired of the dribble like you posted in response to my post. I haven't missed posting. In this case I thought I'd share a little data on an area that I happne to know well.

Michael

I wouldn't have to post drivel if so many of the Corporate Thugs you converse with didn't hold the world Hostage, and for what reason? Of course demand has picked up, you can only hold back for so long.

You really should post more often, I'm sure you could single handedly reduce the rhethoric from both sides of fence considerably. You don't post phony fraudalent numbers, you give the feedback from the field, the field of the Top Brass that are pulling the strings on the pions below which is a perspective few ever get to see.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
0
since the pres usually has to take the blame for anything bad that happens, he might as well take credit for anything good that happens.
Damn Americans are stupid. What sense does it make to mimick the idiocy of your accusers? Why not correct the misinformation instead of telling a different lie?

he definitely didn't cause it to happen, he got into office, while the anvil was dropping. His tax cuts and more business friendly policies definitely helped stem the losses and now, create 750,000 jobs in the last 7 months
See yet another ridiculous statement caused by taking somewhat factual information and treating it like Silly Putty. It's true he definitely did not cause the job losses (probably).

It's also true that his policies had a marginal (if any) effect on job creation over the past 7 months. If you drop the March report (which will likely be revised), then what you call "Bush job growth" decreases by 40%! Why not keep up the lunacy?! Just extrapolate the March report through a second term and claim Bush will generate 15 million jobs by 2008!

But I would leave off the part about many of those jobs being at Home Depot and McDonald's . . .
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,407
8,595
126
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
since the pres usually has to take the blame for anything bad that happens, he might as well take credit for anything good that happens.
Damn Americans are stupid. What sense does it make to mimick the idiocy of your accusers? Why not correct the misinformation instead of telling a different lie?
learning takes time and effort, and people aren't willing to learn the complexities, they'd much rather have one guy accountable. is it stupid? yes. but to expect everyone to know a good amount about economics isn't exactly practical.
he definitely didn't cause it to happen, he got into office, while the anvil was dropping. His tax cuts and more business friendly policies definitely helped stem the losses and now, create 750,000 jobs in the last 7 months
See yet another ridiculous statement caused by taking somewhat factual information and treating it like Silly Putty. It's true he definitely did not cause the job losses (probably).

It's also true that his policies had a marginal (if any) effect on job creation over the past 7 months. If you drop the March report (which will likely be revised), then what you call "Bush job growth" decreases by 40%! Why not keep up the lunacy?! Just extrapolate the March report through a second term and claim Bush will generate 15 million jobs by 2008!

But I would leave off the part about many of those jobs being at Home Depot and McDonald's . . .
perhaps the policies kept further job loss from happening. of course it's counter-factual so you can only speculate, but deficit spending tends to be expansionary.

 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
0
learning takes time and effort, and people aren't willing to learn the complexities, they'd much rather have one guy accountable. is it stupid? yes. but to expect everyone to know a good amount about economics isn't exactly practical.
Read my sig. If we all we can expect from our elected leadership is lies, half-truths, and obfuscation then we should elect deaf, mutes.

perhaps the policies kept further job loss from happening. of course it's counter-factual so you can only speculate, but deficit spending tends to be expansionary.
I can absolutely agree that some of Bush's policies may have prevented further job losses . . . but that is indeed speculative in almost every case. Yet Bushies extol the virtues while rarely noting the caveats. In my book, that's half-truths at best. In one clear case, the steel tariffs, it's difficult to ascribe job effects per se but even the respective industries clearly show that companies that use steel felt far more pain than the gain for steel makers.

Let's look at deficit spending for a moment. If we were making massive investments in modernizing healthcare to deal with our aging (and increasingly obese) population, modernizing our highway system (sans the pork), removing subsidies in agriculture, real reform for schools (not testing), and developing current and next generation technology for vehicles and energy production . . . then deficit spending would make a lot of sense. Instead the Medicare *cough* Modernization *cough* Act makes the current system look fiscally sound. We've blown up one country filled with rocks and another filled with oil and are now spending billions to help the world's top opium exporter and another which practices tactics that might make a Southern Klansman blush.

Sometimes it makes a lot of sense to spend money you do not have . . . but the return on investment for the Bush administration looks a lot like his private business dealings . . . and that ain't pretty b/c he ALWAYS left someone else holding the bag.
 

LordJezo

Banned
May 16, 2001
8,140
1
0
My dad lost his job when Clinton was in office, my dad got a new job when Bush was in office.

Win!
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: Zipp
This good news must be a real bummer for John Kerry.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how he spins this. His apologists(or just plain bush haters) are already out in force here trying to make all sorts of excuses.

CkG
 

YellowRose

Senior member
Apr 22, 2003
247
0
0
Ok smart people please explain how with the unemployment rate rising (meaning a loss of jobs) and the Labor department releases numbers saying that there is job growth. Job growth means a decreasing unemployment rate not an increasing one.
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,529
3
0
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Originally posted by: Zipp
This good news must be a real bummer for John Kerry.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how he spins this. His apologists(or just plain bush haters) are already out in force here trying to make all sorts of excuses.

CkG
The unemployment rate will only matter this coming summer and early fall. BTW, I hear there are a lot of job openings for contract work in Iraq;)
 

Ferocious

Diamond Member
Feb 16, 2000
4,584
2
71
Nearby a new all you can eat Pizza buffet restaurant is opening.

A video game store is opening.

And TWO new gas stations.

Jobs GALORE!!

I try not to time the market.....but today seems like a good day to cash in some mutual funds of mine and exit the market for awhile. Not sure yet.
 

LordJezo

Banned
May 16, 2001
8,140
1
0
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
My dad lost his job when Clinton was in office, my dad got a new job when Bush was in office.
Good for you. Bad for the millions of Americans that you are willing to sacrifice for your family's benefit.


monthly job growth of recent Presidents


That chart means nothing to me unless I get the statistics behind it completely explained.

The way I read it.. during the Bush administration the amount of jobs declined. Ok.. and? Of course they are going to decline. Bush came into office during a recession and the collapse of one of the biggest bubbles in the US economy history. How would it suprise anyone then that there are not as many jobs now as when the boom was going on?
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: YellowRose
Ok smart people please explain how with the unemployment rate rising (meaning a loss of jobs) and the Labor department releases numbers saying that there is job growth. Job growth means a decreasing unemployment rate not an increasing one.

Umm....maybe an increased amount of people who join the "workforce pool"? I really think you should read up on economics and how these numbers are worked out. What they count, how they count, what they don't count, and etc. People were asking almost the same question in months prior because there was an unemployment rate reduction but only small gains in actual employment figures.

bls.gov for more info on how this all works.

CkG
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,407
8,595
126
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
learning takes time and effort, and people aren't willing to learn the complexities, they'd much rather have one guy accountable. is it stupid? yes. but to expect everyone to know a good amount about economics isn't exactly practical.
Read my sig. If we all we can expect from our elected leadership is lies, half-truths, and obfuscation then we should elect deaf, mutes.
thats all well and good for scientists, but telling people the truth is not the way to get elected. most wouldn't understand the truth anyway.
Yet Bushies extol the virtues while rarely noting the caveats.

and that is different from any politician how? and i'll fully agree that there should be better controls for what is spent, that we should spend on more investment type projects than fivolity, but that is how congress works. the constitution doesn't require any particular restraint on the part of congress while budgeting. alexis d'toqueville's prediction is coming true, i'm afraid
 

ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,407
8,595
126
Originally posted by: YellowRose
Ok smart people please explain how with the unemployment rate rising (meaning a loss of jobs) and the Labor department releases numbers saying that there is job growth. Job growth means a decreasing unemployment rate not an increasing one.

unemployment measures people seeking jobs. if people are not seeking jobs they are not unemployed. bill clinton called people not seeking jobs and not working, but "willing to work" hidden unemployment. and as soon as he got into office he changed the definition so that less people would be in the hidden unemployment category. (the new definition is far more accurate, though)
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
YellowRose - The math is fairly simple for your question.

You want to know how can jobs be created and yet the unemployment rate go up?

"Jobs created" is simply the total number of jobs this measurement period less the number of jobs last period. The numbers go through all sorts of seasonal and other adjustments, but the theory says that it makes them much more comparable.

So there were 308K more jobs than when the last report comes out.

The unemployment rate is the percentage of people without a job who are looking for a job over the total number employed.

If the number of people looking for a job (that haven't found one) rises faster than the total employment, the percentage will increase. Essentially, more than 308K additional people than the last measurement looked for and couldn't find a job.

If you think about it, the news release is good news, but not a homerun.

308K more people are working which means more salaries earned and should mean more spending which helps the economy.

However, over 308K people are having the negative experience of looking for but not finding a job.

If the job numbers start following the typical pattern in a recovery, more and more jobs will be created. This news will cause more people that have given up or hadn't thought about it to go and try and get work. Since we're coming out of a recession, I expect that the unemployment rate will show less improvement than the jobs number over the next few quarters until the backlog is cleared away.

Michael
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Originally posted by: YellowRose
Ok smart people please explain how with the unemployment rate rising (meaning a loss of jobs) and the Labor department releases numbers saying that there is job growth. Job growth means a decreasing unemployment rate not an increasing one.

Umm....maybe an increased amount of people who join the "workforce pool"? I really think you should read up on economics and how these numbers are worked out. What they count, how they count, what they don't count, and etc. People were asking almost the same question in months prior because there was an unemployment rate reduction but only small gains in actual employment figures.

bls.gov for more info on how this all works.

CkG

Yeah, according to CAD there was no population increase while Clinton was President.
rolleye.gif
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
Originally posted by: YellowRose
Ok smart people please explain how with the unemployment rate rising (meaning a loss of jobs) and the Labor department releases numbers saying that there is job growth. Job growth means a decreasing unemployment rate not an increasing one.

Umm....maybe an increased amount of people who join the "workforce pool"? I really think you should read up on economics and how these numbers are worked out. What they count, how they count, what they don't count, and etc. People were asking almost the same question in months prior because there was an unemployment rate reduction but only small gains in actual employment figures.

bls.gov for more info on how this all works.

CkG

Yeah, according to CAD there was no population increase while Clinton was President.
rolleye.gif

Yet another post by dave that doesn't come close to the truth.

CkG
 

FrodoB

Senior member
Apr 5, 2001
299
0
0
This is incredible news. The liberals will be relentless in their attempt to spin this news as meaningless or negative, but the fact is that the economy is on fire right now.
I'm shocked that when people talk about the recession and job less the past 4 years, they neglect to mention one of the main causes - 9/11. It's absolutely amazing that the economy is doing this well considering the large amount of uncertainty in this world.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: FrodoB
This is incredible news. The liberals will be relentless in their attempt to spin this news as meaningless or negative, but the fact is that the economy is on fire right now.
I'm shocked that when people talk about the recession and job less the past 4 years, they neglect to mention one of the main causes - 9/11. It's absolutely amazing that the economy is doing this well considering the large amount of uncertainty in this world.

Bush is that you?

4-2-2004 Gov't Warns of Summer Bomb Plots in U.S.

WASHINGTON - Terrorists might try to bomb buses and rail lines in major U.S. cities this summer, according to a government bulletin issued to law enforcement officials nationwide.

 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: FrodoB
This is incredible news. The liberals will be relentless in their attempt to spin this news as meaningless or negative, but the fact is that the economy is on fire right now.
I'm shocked that when people talk about the recession and job less the past 4 years, they neglect to mention one of the main causes - 9/11. It's absolutely amazing that the economy is doing this well considering the large amount of uncertainty in this world.

Bush is that you?

4-2-2004 Gov't Warns of Summer Bomb Plots in U.S.

WASHINGTON - Terrorists might try to bomb buses and rail lines in major U.S. cities this summer, according to a government bulletin issued to law enforcement officials nationwide.


This has what to do with the March Job report? That's what I thought...

CkG
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,528
605
126
Over 500000 jobs added in the first quarter of 2004 is really good news.

We need more. If 300000 a month were added over the next 6 months that would nearly or completely wipeout the job loss over the last few years.

I think if unemployment falls a bit but job creation is steady for the next year or so it will be a really good sign of a truly recovered economy.
 

classy

Lifer
Oct 12, 1999
15,219
1
81
I laugh at these reports. The economic growth has been the worst since the depression the last 4 years. So to have the best growth in the "last" 4 years really isn't saying much.
 

YellowRose

Senior member
Apr 22, 2003
247
0
0
hey I learned the answer to my question.

The unemployment rate uses one set of data and the job growth uses a completly different set of data. An I won't bother asking why different sets of dat are used to measure the same thing.
 

CADsortaGUY

Lifer
Oct 19, 2001
25,162
1
76
www.ShawCAD.com
Originally posted by: classy
I laugh at these reports. The economic growth has been the worst since the depression the last 4 years. So to have the best growth in the "last" 4 years really isn't saying much.

No, you are talking about job growth maybe, but not economic growth. But sure, believe what you want if it helps you sleep at night.

CkG