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Love or Hate the stock market so far this year?

Hate it. Gains now mean those of us saving for retirement will be much, much poorer when we retire. We need huge losses now, so our retirement plans will be able to buy many shares. Then when it goes back up, we'll be fabulously wealthy.

Unless they are retireing in 2006, most likely ATOT readers should hate it for the same reason. Heck, even if you are day trader, you could be able to make a killing on a falling market.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Hate it. Gains now mean those of us saving for retirement will be much, much poorer when we retire. We need huge losses now, so our retirement plans will be able to buy many shares. Then when it goes back up, we'll be fabulously wealthy.

Unless they are retireing in 2006, most likely ATOT readers should hate it for the same reason. Heck, even if you are day trader, you could be able to make a killing on a falling market.
Click to expand...

Bah! I've made about 10% overall (paper) gains in my IRA since the end of December through a few nice buys. 🙂 I'm not relying on my 401k to make me rich.
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Hate it. Gains now mean those of us saving for retirement will be much, much poorer when we retire. We need huge losses now, so our retirement plans will be able to buy many shares. Then when it goes back up, we'll be fabulously wealthy.

Unless they are retireing in 2006, most likely ATOT readers should hate it for the same reason. Heck, even if you are day trader, you could be able to make a killing on a falling market.
Click to expand...

dullard,

I still have to disagree with you on this one. What difference if it "averages" 10% per year on a year over year basis or if the average is brought up to 10% with a huge run up at the end? It's still a 10% average. I can see where it could be beneficial to have either but would rather see a steady gain (not necessarily spectacular). I might even tend to agree with you on a shorter term basis (stay somewhat flat for about 3 years or so and then spike up), but wouldn't want a sustained period of "flat growth". People are easily discouraged and would tend to shun the market that has long periods of "flat or negative" growth...IMO.

Dollar cost averaging FTW! 😀
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
I still have to disagree with you on this one. What difference if it "averages" 10% per year on a year over year basis or if the average is brought up to 10% with a huge run up at the end? It's still a 10% average.

People are easily discouraged and would tend to shun the market that has long periods of "flat or negative" growth...IMO.
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Let the sheep be discouraged. They'll sell low, making it go even lower, and then I can be that much richer as I buy. Lets try some dollar cost averaging.

Case 1: Start at $1000. $100 put in a month. Stock starts at $10/share. Stock goes up at 8% a year (we will lump dividends in with stock prices to make it simpler). Look at value in 30 years. Final stock price: $109.36. Final shares: 1462.8. Final value: $159,971.

Case 2: Start at $1000. $100 put in a month. Stock starts at $10/share. Stock goes down 8% a year for 3 years, then goes up 9.791% a year after that. Final stock price: $109.36. Final shares: 1955.65. Final value: $213,864.

I gotta go, and I rushed the math. So I may have made a silly mistake. But the idea is the same. Assuming the stock value in 30 years is independent of fluctuations now, a sinking market now is much, much better. Have a great weekend.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: Cooler
day trading FTW.
Click to expand...

I thought we cleaned out all of those suckers after the Dot-Com bust in the late 90's! 😛
Click to expand...

Must have re-emerged with this latest Bull Market. As long as you're bringing up the prices of my stocks, day-trade away!
 
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Engineer
I still have to disagree with you on this one. What difference if it "averages" 10% per year on a year over year basis or if the average is brought up to 10% with a huge run up at the end? It's still a 10% average.

People are easily discouraged and would tend to shun the market that has long periods of "flat or negative" growth...IMO.
Click to expand...
Let the sheep be discouraged. They'll sell low, making it go even lower, and then I can be that much richer as I buy. Lets try some dollar cost averaging.

Case 1: Start at $1000. $100 put in a month. Stock starts at $10/share. Stock goes up at 8% a year (we will lump dividends in with stock prices to make it simpler). Look at value in 30 years. Final stock price: $109.36. Final shares: 1462.8. Final value: $159,971.

Case 2: Start at $1000. $100 put in a month. Stock starts at $10/share. Stock goes down 8% a year for 3 years, then goes up 9.791% a year after that. Final stock price: $109.36. Final shares: 1955.65. Final value: $213,864.

I gotta go, and I rushed the math. So I may have made a silly mistake. But the idea is the same. Assuming the stock value in 30 years is independent of fluctuations now, a sinking market now is much, much better. Have a great weekend.
Click to expand...

That's why I posted the conditional short term drops with occasional ups above. I thought you were saying (you still might be) to have the price drop for decades and then run up for a few years. I tend to agree with the downs (or flats) for several years then nice runs...then flats or downs....and nice runs. That's esentially what the market has done for the last 5 years or so. Time to make a little run! 😉

 
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