The anti-crypto thread

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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
6,824
7,187
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SteveGrabowski said:
Refresh the cards moving them down tier, like how 680 became the 770. Would be hilarious to see if Nvidia would have the nerve to do a refresh with mined on chips.
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- Wow, yeah that would really be something. I meant NV would basically sell "refurbished B stock" mining cards purchased back from miners at an artificially inflated rate to preserve the value of their 4xxx series cards.

So for example you have a 4080 going for $900, NV might sell a refurb 3080 at $750, while card may have actually gone for $650 or $550 on the open market. NV basically gets to double dip, makes sure than used prices don't make their new gen look like a joke and help them retain their value.
 
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beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,210
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MrTeal said:
The end of Eth has been coming for a long time now, and that same advice has been given before. PoS will come eventually, but even earlier 5-6 months ago people were saying you'd better sell now with EIP1559 coming. If you'd done that and sold a 3080 in May you'd have missed out on mining $1000+ of Eth in the last 5 months, and used prices for non-LHR cards are even higher now than they were back then. The end will come eventually but it's not at all inconceivable that a half year from now we might still have the same GPU prices we do now, and you just gave up a half year of profitable mining for no gain.
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All I'm reading is that you want to perfectly time the market which by definition is pure luck and hindsight 20/20. You can never time the market. Forget it that is why dollar cost averaging existis (DCA).

Here DCA applies as well just for selling. You sell of your cards in small batches (mining organization) or even one at a time if you "solo-mine". In 6 months, PoW on Ethereum will very likely be dead. But the real point isn't about making money from the GPUs but being able to safe as much ETH as possible so you can stake as much as possible.
 
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MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
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beginner99 said:
All I'm reading is that you want to perfectly time the market which by definition is pure luck and hindsight 20/20. You can never time the market. Forget it that is why dollar cost averaging existis (DCA).

Here DCA applies as well just for selling. You sell of your cards in small batches (mining organization) or even one at a time if you "solo-mine". In 6 months, PoW on Ethereum will very likely be dead. But the real point isn't about making money from the GPUs but being able to safe as much ETH as possible so you can stake as much as possible.
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Not at all, kind of the opposite actually. Just saying the statement that you'd be pretty stupid not to sell right now has been made before, several times. In those cases it's turned out to be bad advice; not only was it not stupid it was actually a good idea to hold onto the cards. It's a crapshoot to say whether the value of coins mined in 6 months + the value of the cards in 6 months will be lower or higher that the value of cards right now. Could be lower and you should sell now, but it could just as easily be the same or higher. PoS is coming, but their track record for meeting deadlines has been pretty abysmal so far.
 
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Aikouka

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
126
naotoyoshida64 said:
I agree that it's not a great idea to hold on to your coins for too long before selling them. Always always observe the trends on the market and check when it will be best to sell them. It's just too volatile to be held for too long.
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That's kind of the problem with crypto as a whole... there's not always an idea of its inherent value. Back when BTC was at $30 and then dropped to $3, I freaked out and sold when it got close to $30 again. It doesn't take a mathematician to know how bad of an idea that was given current knowledge, but being worried about volatility and potential drops just doesn't go well with crypto.
 
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DrMrLordX

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,637
10,855
136
Aikouka said:
That's kind of the problem with crypto as a whole... there's not always an idea of its inherent value. Back when BTC was at $30 and then dropped to $3, I freaked out and sold when it got close to $30 again. It doesn't take a mathematician to know how bad of an idea that was given current knowledge, but being worried about volatility and potential drops just doesn't go well with crypto.
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If you are serious about investing in crypto, it's important to have entrance and exit points and stick to them. Yeah there's a lot of "woulda coulda shoulda" that goes on, but that is all hindsight being 20/20. How many projects have hit impressive ATHs only to never return and/or flame out? Quite a few, especially among pump n' dump scams.

Anyone who (for example) bought BTC at $1 and sold for $30 might feel the fool now, but in reality, a 30x gain is NOT a bad thing. Just like anyone who got into Ethereum at $1 or even $12 back when it first started picking up steam in 2016. If you sold during the 2017/2018 bull run you might feel the idiot now, but at the same time, if your gains were 30x, 40x, 50x, or higher, were you really foolish to sell? Nah. Those kind of returns are ridiculous by most standards.

If you're playing "vulture capitalist" and buying up crippled assets during/after a crash, you may set a price target of 10x or 20x the crash value and HODL, only to feel like an idiot for selling out too soon. Or you could just lose everything as the asset continues to devalue itself and delists. But why risk HODLing forever? There's just no guarantee that a particular token that is successful once or twice during bull markets will go up in perpetuity.
 
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thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
11,871
2,076
126
DrMrLordX said:
Kinda makes you wonder what would happen if RDNA2 had been paired with HBM2e instead.
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I really wish HBM had stuck around for consumer cards. My Vega is so easy to cool (GPU and memory) with a universal GPU water block. I'm not a believer in full cover blocks since they are useless (and wasteful) once you upgrade. I've used my universal block on 3 different generations of cards but the Vega has been the easiest to cool...the other cards with regular GDDR I had to hack together cooling for the VRAM.
 
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VirtualLarry

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,352
10,050
126

Crypto "collapse"? Hardly. Looks like GPU mining is going to survive ETH moving to PoS, this vid has some numbers. Granted, earnings are projected to be only 1/4-1/5 as profitable, but looks like it will still be profitable, which means... probably no GPU mass selloff.
 
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moonbogg

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,635
3,095
136
It's not likely for GPUs to serve gaming and mining markets at the same time without an unrealistic increase in supply. You'd have to flood the entire planet with GPUs to satisfy miners. It doesn't look good for the PC gaming industry to be honest. Mining dictates the price and mainstream gamers won't pay it. Enthusiasts will pay literally anything for a GPU, but not mainstream gamers.
 
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fleshconsumed

fleshconsumed

Diamond Member
Feb 21, 2002
6,483
2,352
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VirtualLarry said:

Crypto "collapse"? Hardly. Looks like GPU mining is going to survive ETH moving to PoS, this vid has some numbers. Granted, earnings are projected to be only 1/4-1/5 as profitable, but looks like it will still be profitable, which means... probably no GPU mass selloff.
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Didn't watch the video as it's 25 minutes. I'm mining ETH on 2 cards that I have, 3070 and 3060ti in wife's computer that give about 55-60 Mh/s per card at 130W measured in MSI afterburner. I'm too lazy to pull actual earning numbers, but ethermine currently estimates monthly payout of about 0.03ETH per card. At current $3600/ETH price that works out to be about $110 per month per card. If mining profitability went down to 1/5th, which I still think is too optimistic, that would bring monthly net to just $22 per card. And that's before electricity costs. At 130W per card and 10c/1KW electricity costs that's about $9 per month per card, so real profit of just $13 per month per card. No one is going to be paying $1200 for 3070 just to make $156 per year. It makes no sense to risk any kind of capital for a measly payout like that. I'll get almost as much money just putting money in ETFs without any risk or hassle.
 
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VirtualLarry

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,352
10,050
126
fleshconsumed said:
If mining profitability went down to 1/5th, which I still think is too optimistic, that would bring monthly net to just $22 per card. And that's before electricity costs. At 130W per card and 10c/1KW electricity costs that's about $9 per month per card, so real profit of just $13 per month per card. No one is going to be paying $1200 for 3070 just to make $156 per year.
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That's a good point. Even if mining is "profitable", if the ROI times really stretch out, then retail street prices of cards MUST come down. It makes sense.
 
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ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
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fleshconsumed said:
Didn't watch the video as it's 25 minutes. I'm mining ETH on 2 cards that I have, 3070 and 3060ti in wife's computer that give about 55-60 Mh/s per card at 130W measured in MSI afterburner. I'm too lazy to pull actual earning numbers, but ethermine currently estimates monthly payout of about 0.03ETH per card. At current $3600/ETH price that works out to be about $110 per month per card. If mining profitability went down to 1/5th, which I still think is too optimistic, that would bring monthly net to just $22 per card. And that's before electricity costs. At 130W per card and 10c/1KW electricity costs that's about $9 per month per card, so real profit of just $13 per month per card. No one is going to be paying $1200 for 3070 just to make $156 per year. It makes no sense to risk any kind of capital for a measly payout like that. I'll get almost as much money just putting money in ETFs without any risk or hassle.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Mining after the merge is effectively dead and yes, a massive GPU sell off with occur. I'm planning to slowly unload my GPUs starting a month or two out from the merge. Latest news is that the client devs are a whole lot closer to the merge than most people realize.
 
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moonbogg

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,635
3,095
136
ozzy702 said:
Exactly. Mining after the merge is effectively dead and yes, a massive GPU sell off with occur. I'm planning to slowly unload my GPUs starting a month or two out from the merge. Latest news is that the client devs are a whole lot closer to the merge than most people realize.
Click to expand...

You're forgetting about Nvcoin. When it drops, GPU mining will explode and Nvidia will rebrand every product they have as mining products and charge 5X the price.
 
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nurturedhate

Golden Member
Aug 27, 2011
1,743
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moonbogg said:
You're forgetting about Nvcoin. When it drops, GPU mining will explode and Nvidia will rebrand every product they have as mining products and charge 5X the price.
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You sir are so far off it hurts! Nvidia will stop selling gpus. They will go from the Nvidia gpu factory to the Nvidia mining farm, situated next to the Nvidia power plant that's killing Lake Nvidia.
 
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