Originally posted by: Mill
Originally posted by: BD2003
No, its not realistic at all. Youre living in a fantasy world where people do whats best for everyone else, not for themselves. This is a capitalist nation for crying out loud. In the real world, people do have brains and theyre using them. They can follow your logic to a point, and its good logic.
But then the realization hits them: no one else is going to listen to this. The more people that do, the better off I am. Therefore, itll be best for me if everyone else listens, and I dont.
Youre basically thinking of a classic prisoners dilemma. It would be beneficial for both of them if they both kept their mouths closed. But the gain is so huge if they do rat their boy out, and the loss so huge if they keep quiet while their friend rats them out, that both of them will independently and rationally come to the same conclusion, to sell out. And that doesnt make them any more of an idiot that these people running out and filling up.
It makes the ones who dont fill up suckers.
You are arguing something entirely different that I am. I'm arguing that they are idiots and causing their own problems. You are arguing that it is realistic behavior predicated on the notion that people are selfish and are out for themselves. I agree, they are selfish, and it is realistic behavior, but it isn't "realistic" logically or in an economic sense which is what I was saying. My whole point (aimed at Rainsford, too) is that the people are so stupid and selfish that they cannot see the forest for the trees. They feed off of each other and the media and drive the prices up.
Gas prices aren't going to hit 6 from thus unless it is from spiked demand. Venezuela is about to provide oil, OPEC is going to ramp up production a bit, although refining the rougher OPEC oil is tough, and the EPA is allowing the amount of blends to be whittled down, and Bush is tapping the SPR. All those multitude of tools are a reaction to the supply disruption. If given a chance they would have handled the market and made any prices increases modest and short in duration. Due to people not have a clue or a brain they fvcked themselves. Honestly, I don't see the disagreement. You are saying people are animalistic, selfish, and stupid in general nature and I agree. I relied on their behavior to help my future's contract. I wouldn't have done it had I not realized the inherent stupidity of the lemmings in this country -- or anywhere in the world.
I am, however, stating pure economic facts. If they had allowed the supply disruption to be fixed, Fouchon to come online, increased OPEC and SPR oil, etc then the price increase wouldn't have been bad. Creating a total lack of supply after spiking demand is only going to keep prices high for the foreseeable future.
Actually you're saying people as a group are stupid. You can't blame Joe Sixpack going to the station after work to fill up his car, after all, gas prices are climbing like crazy and he realizes (correctly) that if he waits, he might end up getting screwed over on the price...or worse, they won't have any gas. Maybe Joe realizes that if people would just behave rationally and see the big picture, we'd be fine. But that's not happening, so Joe hits up the nearest Amaco on his way home from work. And can you blame him?
Now multiply that by millions of other Americans, who might realize what the problem is, but they are powerless to do anything about it, and they don't want to be stuck with the short end of the stick. Who can you point at and tell them they are stupid? They are just doing what a reasonable person faced with a rapidly increasing price of a necessity would do.
It's not people being stupid, it's a real logical dilemma. All it takes is a few idiots, and gas stations providing the spark, and it's inevitable that a panic will happen. The only way to avert something like this is if everyone trusts everyone else to do the thing that's right for the group. And there is nothing in our society that makes ME trust everybody to do that, so why should anybody else? I'll admit it seems kind of stupid (kind of REALLY stupid), but it's not as simple as people being smart, it requries either individuals having control over other individuals, or individuals willing to trust others with their ability to get to work. Our society is simply not set up to allow that sort of thing.