Could this be calm before terrorism storm?
Thomas L. Friedman
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So, here's a question I've been wrestling with lately: with all these reports about the bungling of U.S. intelligence, and the CIA relying on bogus informants with names like "curveball" or "knucklehead," why have there been no terrorist attacks in the U.S. since 9/11?
I've got my own theory about what's produced this period of calm ? and, more important, why it may be coming to an end.
Let's start with the facts.
Despite all the code reds and code oranges, and despite the mountain of newspaper articles about how underprotected our ports and borders are, the fact is that not only has there not been another 9/11, but there has not even been a serious failed attempt that we know of.
I'm not complaining ? I'm just wondering why. It still seems to me ridiculously easy to blow up a car in the heart of Chicago.
And anyone who has flown on a private jet since 9/11 can tell you that security at these private terminals is still so lax that, if you showed up in a Saudi headdress with a North Carolina driver's licence under the name of "Billy Bob bin Laden" and asked for directions for your chartered Lear jet to Lower Manhattan, there's a good chance no one would stop you.
So, how do we explain the calm? To begin with, I'd give a tip o' the hat to the CIA, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security.
I have no doubt their increased vigilance ? and co-ordination with European and Arab intelligence services ? has made it much harder for terrorists to organize.
Moreover, thanks to Gen. John Abizaid's Centcom forces in Afghanistan, Al Qaeda no longer has a whole country from which to plan, train and co-ordinate terrorist attacks with impunity.
The fact that Al Qaeda effectively controlled a country is what made it unique. Also, new U.S. visa policies have made it much harder for bad guys to get into America.
If your name is Mohammed and you are a 21-year-old single Arab man and you have not visited Disney World yet, well, you may want to consider Euro Disney, because your chances of getting a tourist visa are very low.
Frankly, I wish this were not the case, because we are preventing a lot of good, talented Arab men and women from getting educated in America, which is the best way of building friends.
This is one of the sad byproducts of 9/11 ? but it has undoubtedly made it more difficult for the few bad apples to get in. Despite all that, I fear we may be entering the most dangerous period since 9/11.
Why? Because I've always believed that one of the most important reasons there has been no new terrorist attack in America has to do with the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan.
It is not only that the Bush administration has taken the fight to the enemy, but also that the enemy has welcomed that fight.
To the extent that the Baathists and Jihadists have a co-ordinated strategy, their first priority, I think, is to defeat U.S. forces in the heart of their world.
If the Jihadists can defeat us in the heart of their world, it will have a huge impact on the Arab street and shake every pro-American Arab regime.
The Jihadists have always understood that Iraq is the ballgame. Winning there is what really advances their agendas.
The reason things may be getting more dangerous now is that the formation of a freely elected government in Iraq could signal that the insurgency is being gradually defeated.
The U.S. may even be able to withdraw some troops. And there is nothing worse for the Baathists and Jihadists than to be defeated in the heart of their world by other Arabs and Muslims who are repudiating their vision and tactics.
I fear that when and if the Jihadists conclude they have been defeated in the heart of their world, they will be sorely tempted to launch a spectacular, headline-grabbing act of terrorism in America that tries to mask, and compensate for, just how defeated they are at home.
In short, the more the Jihadists lose in Iraq, the more likely they are to use their rump forces to try something really crazy in America to make up for it.
