- Jan 15, 2000
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I'll start with Romney, since his path to the Presidency is far more interesting IMHO than Obama's.
I think once you start analyzing the demographics of this election, the motives of each campaign become a lot clearer. Mitt Romney's path to victory is essentially 61/74. He needs to capture at least 61 percent of white voters so long as white voters constitute at least 74 percent of the vote as they did in 2008. Just to give you an idea of how high a mountain Romney has to climb, if he were to reach 61 percent amongst whites he would equal the best performance ever for a Republican presidential candidate with this demographic. That's right, better than Eisenhower, Reagan, and Bush in '88. They all won between 56-61 percent of the white votes according to polling at the time. This all assumes that white voters maintain their 2008 share of the vote. The reality is that whites have declined as a portion of the electorate in every presidential election since 1992.
Now let's have a look at what Romney's campaign has been doing thus far. He's shown little indication that he's going to reach out to minority voters which means he has to go all in on the white vote in order to win this election. This is the main reason we are seeing welfare ads, birther jokes, and subtle messaging from his campaign aimed directly at attracting white voters.
It's simple electoral math.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/then...te-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824
I think once you start analyzing the demographics of this election, the motives of each campaign become a lot clearer. Mitt Romney's path to victory is essentially 61/74. He needs to capture at least 61 percent of white voters so long as white voters constitute at least 74 percent of the vote as they did in 2008. Just to give you an idea of how high a mountain Romney has to climb, if he were to reach 61 percent amongst whites he would equal the best performance ever for a Republican presidential candidate with this demographic. That's right, better than Eisenhower, Reagan, and Bush in '88. They all won between 56-61 percent of the white votes according to polling at the time. This all assumes that white voters maintain their 2008 share of the vote. The reality is that whites have declined as a portion of the electorate in every presidential election since 1992.
Now let's have a look at what Romney's campaign has been doing thus far. He's shown little indication that he's going to reach out to minority voters which means he has to go all in on the white vote in order to win this election. This is the main reason we are seeing welfare ads, birther jokes, and subtle messaging from his campaign aimed directly at attracting white voters.
It's simple electoral math.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/then...te-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824