Let's talk about polling

[OneOfTheseDays]

Most major trusted polls are still using landlnes to conduct their surveys. I wonder how many people in the 18-30 group are simply not being polled due to only having cellphones.

It would seem a huge chunk of that crowd would be pro-Obama by possibly a 2:1 margin. I think that would definitely shift the poll numbers heavily if this bracket were included.

What do you guys think? Are pollsters accounting for this shift in communication?

 

[Stunt]

Polls have been collected the same way over the last few weeks and most are showing a drop in support for Obama. While your reasoning makes sense and the polls might not be an accurate representation of true votes on election day, Obama is going to want those 'hidden' votes as a cushion not to justify winning while the polls are dropping.

 

[woodie1]

As said above, if the same method is being used throughout this election period then the rise and fall of BHO is still reflected properly.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I agree, that is the rise and fall of Obama amongst older Americans who typically still have land lines. But we are not accounting for the significant portion of Obama supporters that do not have land lines. This is why I think we need to change the way we poll, it just isn't representative of America today.

 

[RY62]

Is the polling today any different than it was during the primaries? Obama would have had the young vote edge, over Senator Clinton, at that time too. My memory is kind of hazy but I seem to remember Obama polling a little higher than he actually performed.

 

[pstylesss]

Would you be questioning the polls if Obama were still polling ahead? Do you have any numbers to back up your assumption? If the same method is being used then these polls are about as accurate as the ones take earlier this year.

 

[dennilfloss]

I have a land line but, thankfully, the 2-3 polls I answer each week tend to be internet polls. Spending 10-15 minutes answering a telephone poll is way more tiresome (but I still do it a few times each year).

 

[QED]

Doens't matter much anyway-- the people who are least likely to have a landline are also the same people least likely to vote.

 

[ScottMac]

The question about cell phone impact has been put to the pollsters a couple times. So far they are consistent: it is not a significant factor now, but (probably) will a few years down the road.

Pollsters are not allowed to intentionally call a cellular line, but they do get a few from "number portability" where the number used to be a landline, but has since moved to cell.

This was brought up as a concern in the primaries, and (with a few notable exceptions) the polling was reasonably accurate.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I can tell you right now, nobody I know under the age of 30 even has a land line. Why would they?

Unless you have a family there really isn't a need to have one.

 

[bbdub333]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
I can tell you right now, nobody I know under the age of 30 even has a land line. Why would they?

Unless you have a family there really isn't a need to have one.

I can tell you right now, hardly anybody I know under the age of 30 votes, so that probably makes up for your premise.

 

[nageov3t]

I would assume that they'd account for it by weighting before their final numbers.

 

[Dari]

I can't think of any reason why anyone would have a landline. They're so impersonal.