Let's say N. Korea hits Hawaii with a non-nuke missile

[Hayabusa Rider]

Shit would get real for NK but the premise is off. What would NK possibly gain by launching a non nuke at Hawaii?

In this context NK does not exist. What we have is a crazy guy named Kim who is much like a feudal lord with the population as attendant serfs. NK is Kim's lawn.

Kim has no understanding of the reality of the world. He was raised in a nation where his father was a demigod and all were forced to "love him and despair". When the Immortal One died he became the All Father because from the day he was born he was raised to be just that.

So at one level Kim was doomed since day one and that I think is important to keep in mind. All the propaganda NK spouts is likely believed at some level, the US being the Demogorgon and he being the Righteous One of Blah Blah Blah.

With the psychopathy firmly embedded in his nature it may be his personal mandate to rid the world of "The Great Satan" equivalent he sees us as. What happens after he slays that great beast is immaterial because he's made of god-stuff.

If I'm wrong it's hard to demonstrate it I think. He has the right to kill anyone even his own family by whatever "divine right" he thinks he has.

He's a nutter with nukes, and no, even Trump isn't his equal.

 

[NTMBK]

...The real question here is what would the Soviets do? ...

...While things appear relativety peaceful between the Soviets, China and the west we have to remember there is an all out desire for China and or the bto advance into the slot of leader of the free world...

... to not think the Soviets or China would not immediately poise themselves to take over the role of would leadership at any cost would be foolish thinking...

...The Soviets and China would need to fight it out between themselves until one emerges the victor.
Let the nukes fly...

I'm not taking foreign policy advice from someone who appears to have failed to notice that the USSR ceased to exist 25 years ago.

 

[pauldun170]

I'm not taking foreign policy advice from someone who appears to have failed to notice that the USSR ceased to exist 25 years ago.

LOL!!!!!


(As a cold war kid, who spent way to much time paying attention to cold war nonsense instead of getting laid, I have let "Soviets" drop on occasion)

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I just read a Facebook click bait story on what if NK launched...
It wasn't pretty for NK, their best option was a forced apology from China and fat boy leaving NK to live in China.
One smart point was setup time, the best NK could hope for was 1 hour out in the open for all the major powers to see. That would either lead to a preventative strike which would likely be a artillery strike by the South, massive drone & cruise misled bombardment followed by air power to clean up what's left

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

NK is China's bitch and NK is not going to do anything without the permission of China. So it comes down to the likelihood of China allowing it happen at all. It's not gonna happen.

I think you overestimate anyone's control over Kim. As long as he continues to develop his personality suggests he will deploy. Your statement implies rationality and an understanding of consequences and recognizing a superior controlling authority. That doesn't fit Kim.

 

[DarthKyrie]

I think you overestimate anyone's control over Kim. As long as he continues to develop his personality suggests he will deploy. Your statement implies rationality and an understanding of consequences and recognizing a superior controlling authority. That doesn't fit Kim.

This is so very true up until the point that the DPRK puts China's interests at risk by being stupid.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

This is so very true up until the point that the DPRK puts China's interests at risk by being stupid.

That's why China needs to become involved far more right now than we currently see. At this time they can act to contain or remove Kim, however there is a point of no return- that being when Kim can press "the button" and fire a working nuclear ICBM.

What we can't know is the balance China wishes to strike between Kim being a worrying dog snapping at the heels of the rest of the world and their perceived self interest, in short when "enough is enough" for them.

This isn't a very comforting situation.

 

[mistercrabby]

The US military and intelligence has been planning and practicing DPRK regime change for 50 years. If North Korea attached the US or an ally, China would step back and let it happen. They just have to much to lose. The counter-attack by the US would be effective but no cakewalk. The tragedy of that scenario is the loss of life and limb of the North Korean populace, with some casualties in the South. The North does have some potential to bombard Seoul and the areas between there and the border.

 

[brandonbull]

My question is: if Trump was ever so foolish as to call for a nuclear strike, would the people responsible for the launch actually obey the order?

He carries so little trustworthiness that I can't help but wonder if those tasked with the launch procedure would refuse the order unless it was obviously necessary. You don't want to kill millions of unarmed people simply because Trump can't control his temper.

Are you saying that because Trump is the President, the US cannot retaliate against hostile military action from a sovereign nation? The US is being attacked in the scenario but Trump has the temper issues? Do lefties go to some special training session to come up with the most insane thoughts? How do we know that it wasn't a nuke armed missile that was a dud and a fully operational might be on the way if we don't strike back? You psycho progressives will not rest until the US is a pile of smoking ruins because you have so much hate for anyone not in your cult. Total destruction is a better solution than getting along with the majority.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Are you saying that because Trump is the President, the US cannot retaliate against hostile military action from a sovereign nation? The US is being attacked in the scenario but Trump has the temper issues? Do lefties go to some special training session to come up with the most insane thoughts? How do we know that it wasn't a nuke armed missile that was a dud and a fully operational might be on the way if we don't strike back? You psycho progressives will not rest until the US is a pile of smoking ruins because you have so much hate for anyone not in your cult. Total destruction is a better solution than getting along with the majority.

I think he's saying if Trump ordered a completely inappropriate response what would happen but I'm not sure

 

[woolfe9998]

NK is China's bitch and NK is not going to do anything without the permission of China. So it comes down to the likelihood of China allowing it happen at all. It's not gonna happen.

I don't agree. Chinese influence over NK has waned in recent years. China still has more influence over NK than any other nation, but I don't think anyone can dissuade Kim from doing whatever he wants to do. Defectors have said that Kim will never agree to give up NK's nuclear program under any circumstances. He's apparently obsessed with it.

To a point, I support Trump's approach of trying to get the Chinese to pressure NK, because I see no other options. But I doubt it will prove fruitful.

In my view, the only thing that could happen to end and/or diminish this threat is for Kim to be assassinated or otherwise deposed, preferably before NK has the delivery systems to really threaten the US.

 

[zinfamous]

Depending on where the nuke detonates, normal weather patterns would take the fallout east. Minimal impact on South Korea and their government hates North Korea anyway. So they would tolerate some war to take out that dictator, especially if he is the one that starts the trouble.

uh, the only place to strike DPRNK is Pyong Yang, and it's what, 15 miles north of SK border?

 

[zinfamous]

Bad hair Cut will be taken out by a Chinese orchestrated Coup..then China will blame the Russians. The Chinese do not want a smoldering nuke pile on their border and 20 million Korean mutants storming their nation.

A Chinese-led coup is going to take out President Turnip of the US? This is confusing.

 

[Blackjack200]

Why would KJU fire a missile at Hawaii?

I feel like we're being asked to forecast a realistic response to a totally unrealistic circumstance.

If there was any kind of attack, it would almost certainly be on American/Korean forces during military exercises with N. Korea claiming that somebody crossed a border or was targeting them. A missile at Hawaii makes zero sense.

 

[BurnItDwn]

If N Korea attacks USA, China will will likely assasinate the dictator there and install a new one very quikly, before US even has a chance to respond. China wants to keep their dog on a leash.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

This might as well be "How would Trump respond if the USA is attacked by aliens?" because that's as likely a scenario as NK attacking Hawaii. As bat shit crazy as NK *sounds* they are ruled by their own self-interest. The military and leadership likes to stir the pot a little because it helps them paint the rest of the world as being out to get them and that helps them stay in charge. The moment they attack anyone they get turned into a giant smoking crater and then the people in charge are not in charge anymore. They're not that crazy. They use us as a bogeyman to justify what they do and keep themselves in power and we use them as a bogeyman to justify our military spending. It's all a co-dependent charade.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Why would KJU fire a missile at Hawaii?

I feel like we're being asked to forecast a realistic response to a totally unrealistic circumstance.

If there was any kind of attack, it would almost certainly be on American/Korean forces during military exercises with N. Korea claiming that somebody crossed a border or was targeting them. A missile at Hawaii makes zero sense.

I think you are right in selecting Hawaii as a target since there is no doubt that the untouchable mainland would retaliate in kind. If I were batshit insane but able to think about an attack scenario while accepting death as an unavoidable outcome, I'd wait for the ability to strike the US mainland. Fortunately I'm not Kim.

 

[Blackjack200]

I think you are right in selecting Hawaii as a target since there is no doubt that the untouchable mainland would retaliate in kind. If I were batshit insane but able to think about an attack scenario while accepting death as an unavoidable outcome, I'd wait for the ability to strike the US mainland. Fortunately I'm not Kim.

Two thoughts on that, first, Japan is a far more likely target for an attack than Hawaii. Hawaii is almost 5,000 miles from Pyongyang, which would mean an ICBM. When an ICBM goes up, you don't really know what the target is going to be. So if DPRK launched at Hawaii, we'd have essentially no way of knowing if they were targeting Hawaii or L.A. until the missile came down.

Second, KJU is a miserable tyrant like his father was, but I don't think he's batshit insane. Everything he does, all his posturing, is to make DPRK a credible threat to retaliate if they are attacked. That's why the guns are pointed at Seoul, that's why they're building nukes, and that's why they're trying to build ICBMs.

 

[woolfe9998]

Two thoughts on that, first, Japan is a far more likely target for an attack than Hawaii. Hawaii is almost 5,000 miles from Pyongyang, which would mean an ICBM. When an ICBM goes up, you don't really know what the target is going to be. So if DPRK launched at Hawaii, we'd have essentially no way of knowing if they were targeting Hawaii or L.A. until the missile came down.

Second, KJU is a miserable tyrant like his father was, but I don't think he's batshit insane. Everything he does, all his posturing, is to make DPRK a credible threat to retaliate if they are attacked. That's why the guns are pointed at Seoul, that's why they're building nukes, and that's why they're trying to build ICBMs.

Or they could use a sub launched missile from shorter range. This is actually more likely than them having an ICBM which can be delivered with accuracy at that distance.

As for KJU, I disagree. I think he's far worse than his father. Not pragmatic. An insane psychopath. When he had his uncle killed, he executed his uncle's entire branch of the family just in case any turned out to be subversive. Some were executed with flamethrowers. Next to KJU, the Ayatollah is Ghandi.

IMO, unless he is deposed, he is more likely than not to eventually nuke someone, be it S. Korea, Japan or the US.

 

[Blackjack200]

Or they could use a sub launched missile from shorter range. This is actually more likely than them having an ICBM which can be delivered with accuracy at that distance.

I don't think DPRK has the capability to launch land attack missiles from subs. Then again, they don't ICBMs either.

As for KJU, I disagree. I think he's far worse than his father. Not pragmatic. An insane psychopath. When he had his uncle killed, he executed his uncle's entire branch of the family just in case any turned out to be subversive. Some were executed with flamethrowers. Next to KJU, the Ayatollah is Ghandi.

That's the behavior of a paranoid dictator. That's how he's trying to keep his grip on power, by murdering anyone he perceives to be any kind of threat. Launching missiles at American-allied nations or America herself is almost a guarantee that you will be removed from power (and then killed, one way or another).

IMO, unless he is deposed, he is more likely than not to eventually nuke someone, be it S. Korea, Japan or the US.

So why hasn't he done it yet?

 

[Pens1566]

If they really did launch a non-test missile (of any kind), I'd hate to live in Seoul. Any ensuing conflict would almost immediately result in it becoming the largest pile of rubble since Dresden.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

^^ the click bait article I read said no possibility of sub launch, maybe a small limited range missle however NK subs are so rickety they make tons of noise and are unlikely to survive an open ocean long range trip without a break down or sinking.

 

[woolfe9998]

I don't think DPRK has the capability to launch land attack missiles from subs. Then again, they don't ICBMs either.

They appear to be closer to subs than ICBM's.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a24381/north-korean-nuclear-missile-sub-update/

That's the behavior of a paranoid dictator. That's how he's trying to keep his grip on power, by murdering anyone he perceives to be any kind of threat. Launching missiles at American-allied nations or America herself is almost a guarantee that you will be removed from power (and then killed, one way or another).

NK propaganda promotes him as a demigod. That is heady stuff for a pathological narcissist. It could make him believe he is indestructible.

So why hasn't he done it yet?

You're asking a meaningless question. Why didn't Hitler start exterminating the Jews in 1933 instead of waiting until 1941? The fact that he did it later didn't mean he had no capacity or intent to do it.

 

[hal2kilo]

LOL!!!!!


(As a cold war kid, who spent way to much time paying attention to cold war nonsense instead of getting laid, I have let "Soviets" drop on occasion)

Everybody does let it slip from time to time. Product of years of cold war I guess.

 

[hal2kilo]

Or they could use a sub launched missile from shorter range. This is actually more likely than them having an ICBM which can be delivered with accuracy at that distance.

As for KJU, I disagree. I think he's far worse than his father. Not pragmatic. An insane psychopath. When he had his uncle killed, he executed his uncle's entire branch of the family just in case any turned out to be subversive. Some were executed with flamethrowers. Next to KJU, the Ayatollah is Ghandi.

IMO, unless he is deposed, he is more likely than not to eventually nuke someone, be it S. Korea, Japan or the US.

Wow, now we are going from, they might have a miniaturized bomb in 5 years to submarine launched ICBMs. It takes years to develop submarine launched capability.