let's make predictions about where the smart phone market is going...

[rudeguy]

I see BlackBerry taking Nextel's line and focusing on business. They are not doing well in the consumer market now that everyone has push email.

Microsoft will buy Palm and continue to make an OK phone OS but fail miserably with equipment.

Android will integrate into more and more things. It will replace Chrome as Google's OS of choice for anything not PC. Netbooks, indash units, possibly even DVR's.

Apple will continue to be the Bose of cellular. It will release things with lots of shine and even more hype that don't really innovate but they do intrigue.

 

[onza]

BB is the fail now. Shoulda known 2yrs ago!

 

[boomhower]

BB will live long and strong in the corporate world but regress in the consumer space. Android will continue to grow. The iphone is the iphone and will grow as they branch out to more carriers. WM7 will be a failure. Palm will be bought for their patents and WebOS will be killed, which is a damn shame.

 

[A5]

No way MS buys Palm. I'd guess HTC (may want their own OS or at least the patents to get Apple to go away) or Lenovo (they apparently make a ton of phones in China) are far more likely suitors.

Smartphones become more and more common, and the carriers eventually simplify their plans into 3 or 4 choices - Sprint is already going this way, but I'm not sure they'll be around to see it come to all carriers.
1) Limited Talk/Text for dumbphones (cheap sub-$40/mo)
2) Unlimited Talk/Text for dumbphones (not too expensive - $50/mo?)
3) Limited Talk/Text/Data for smartphones (100MB of data usage - $60-$70/mo?)
4) Unlimited Everything for smartphones ($100-$120/mo like it is now)
I think the carriers are going to clamp down hard on heavy data users to make sure their networks can handle the strain. You may see them relax the restrictions as they collect the capital needed to upgrade the networks. Conversely, I think all plans will come with at least some texts (100? 200?) included in the cost as the carriers begin having to compete with Sprint and Boost on the cost front.

Bold prediction (and low probability): Either Sprint or T-Mobile will go bankrupt or be bought by Verizon or AT&T. Sprint if they can't get anyone to make WiMax smartphones after LTE begins penetrating Europe and Asia. T-Mobile if they can't get the subscribers (aka cash) to build out an LTE network to compete.

 

[uli2000]

I see BlackBerry taking Nextel's line and focusing on business. They are not doing well in the consumer market now that everyone has push email.

Microsoft will buy Palm and continue to make an OK phone OS but fail miserably with equipment.

Android will integrate into more and more things. It will replace Chrome as Google's OS of choice for anything not PC. Netbooks, indash units, possibly even DVR's.

Apple will continue to be the Bose of cellular. It will release things with lots of shine and even more hype that don't really innovate but they do intrigue.

RIM and Nextel arn't competitors. Two completly different industies. Heck, you can get BB phones on Nextel. Sprint will kill off IDEN (Nextel) when they are completly overlaid with WiMax. The last PTT dinosaurs will have to suffice with Qchat. This could be the perfect time for someone like Motorola to go back to something they know best, radio communications, purchase the block D 700mhz spectrum, and build a nationwide two way radio network for public service and buisness kinda like the TETRA network in Europe.

MS won't buy Palm. They should have before they made WM7. And I disagree about WM. Hardware has almost allways been it's strength. Anything we see on a phone today (camera, bluetooth, wifi, apps) started out in WM. It's the OS that has always been the problem. And MS hasn't kept up with the trends, and now it's dead. WM7 will die a quiet death within 3 years.

And you summed up Apple to a T. Though they take good ideas that others have had and make them work simple and easy. That was always one of the problems with smartphones, too hard for the average person to use until the iPhone.

I see our phones becoming our computers. Look at Japan. Almost 100% phone penetration, but PC's are in less than 1/2 of homes now and falling. Requiring a PC/Mac for activation and syncing is one reason the iPhone is almost non existent in Japan. Apple really need to do away with requireing iTunes for the iPhone/iPad. Include MobileMe with iPhone service to the carriers. Bundle the cost either with the device or as a monthly charge, but keep it to a couple of dollars a month at most (since they don't do anything for free).

Completly agree about Android. Were gonna see it in almost everything. Yesterday there was an article on Engadget and Gizmodo about an Android powered TV. We may see Android in toasters in a couple of years if things keep going they way they are.

 

[theeedude]

I see Android gaining majority market share, developers enticed by this new marked and pissed off by arbitrary App Store approval processes and SDKs jumping ship, and Apple starting to sue companies left and right to try to slow this trend down and remain relevant.

 

[uli2000]

Forgot one-

I believe RIM will eventually start to focus more on the server/software side of things and maybe eventually split hardware off into a different company. As it stands right now, BB can't hang with iPhone and Android as far as a consumer product. What I would like to see is further development of the Blackberry Application Suite, which pretty much emulated BB OS on WM devices, allowing for BB email, BBM, and BES syncing. I know I would love this as the one thing thats keeping me on BB for the time being is BBM. My wife loves her BBs, and doesnt want to give them up. If I could get BBM on Android, we could still chat via BBM and I could have a OS I like to use and can tinker a bit with.

 

[AstroManLuca]

I see our phones becoming our computers. Look at Japan. Almost 100% phone penetration, but PC's are in less than 1/2 of homes now and falling. Requiring a PC/Mac for activation and syncing is one reason the iPhone is almost non existent in Japan. Apple really need to do away with requireing iTunes for the iPhone/iPad. Include MobileMe with iPhone service to the carriers. Bundle the cost either with the device or as a monthly charge, but keep it to a couple of dollars a month at most (since they don't do anything for free).

Agreed. When I visited China a few years ago, almost no one had landline phones. It wasn't like here in the US where the younger people are going mobile-only but older generations are still clinging to their landlines. The infrastructure essentially skipped a step.

I see that happening with higher-speed broadband in the US. Yes, cable is getting faster and fiber is (very slowly) working its way into some neighborhoods, but it seems that getting high speed, high capacity internet access is a big roadblock here. I'd like to see a big evolution in 4G coverage, enough to replace many people's home internet connections. With that will come the increased use of phones for tethering or even as partial replacements for computers.

I also agree about Apple's requiring you to use a computer to activate. I don't see this going anywhere for years. The iPad has demonstrated that although Apple may be moving in the direction of creating a simpler "casual computing" platform, they're not there yet. The iPad is too gimped to serve as your only computer (no access to file structure, no printing, etc.). I don't know if this is simply because of technological limitations or because Apple wants to keep encouraging people to buy Macs as well.

 

[vshah]

Up.

 

[Gooberlx2]

Palm is bought by either HTC or Lenovo. If Lenovo, then they'll concentrate on their asian markets and remove it from N.A. WebOS becomes extinct. The "Palm" brand gets licensed and you start seeing it on all kinds of unrelated cheap tech shit.

WM7 will be in WebOS's position, but MS won't care because they're rich. However, WM7 will have better consumer penetration than BB; who'll instead focus on and continue dominating the corporate market.

Android continues to expand. Google reconciles ChromeOS with Android and removes the fragmentation. Zillions of Android tablets roll out, becoming the new netbook.

iPhone continues to be iPhone and receives much attention and success by expanding to other carriers, but now has to more directly compete with Android.

Smartphones win generally because they become the new standard. Dumb phone plans become unlimited talk/text to compete with carriers like Cricket and MetroPCS (though still require contracts).

 

[Pliablemoose]

Hmmm, as someone said, smartphones have become the new PC.

The first company to allow tethering to a keyboard, monitor and storage device wins.

 

[Anubis]

No way MS buys Palm. I'd guess HTC (may want their own OS or at least the patents to get Apple to go away) or Lenovo (they apparently make a ton of phones in China) are far more likely suitors.

Smartphones become more and more common, and the carriers eventually simplify their plans into 3 or 4 choices - Sprint is already going this way, but I'm not sure they'll be around to see it come to all carriers.
1) Limited Talk/Text for dumbphones (cheap sub-$40/mo)
2) Unlimited Talk/Text for dumbphones (not too expensive - $50/mo?)
3) Limited Talk/Text/Data for smartphones (100MB of data usage - $60-$70/mo?)
4) Unlimited Everything for smartphones ($100-$120/mo like it is now)
I think the carriers are going to clamp down hard on heavy data users to make sure their networks can handle the strain. You may see them relax the restrictions as they collect the capital needed to upgrade the networks. Conversely, I think all plans will come with at least some texts (100? 200?) included in the cost as the carriers begin having to compete with Sprint and Boost on the cost front.

Bold prediction (and low probability): Either Sprint or T-Mobile will go bankrupt or be bought by Verizon or AT&T. Sprint if they can't get anyone to make WiMax smartphones after LTE begins penetrating Europe and Asia. T-Mobile if they can't get the subscribers (aka cash) to build out an LTE network to compete.

umm i pay 1/2 that now for the unlimited plan, i dont see prices increasing 2x

 

[speg]

I came here to make my own thread, but this one is new and close enough related. I was just reading an article about Google's earnings and how they want Android to become an integral part of Google as it continues it's success.

Of course, there is the iPhone as well.

So my thread was going to be about the other guys. Google and Apple are both VERY new to this game. Yet they are dominating.

WTF have Samsung, Motorola, and Nokia being doing? They ran this industry forever and just let these new guys come in and take the rug out from under them? I know they don't specialize in software but how hard was it to come up with something better than that god awful typical phone menu system. They may still have the dumbphone market, but the smartphone was such a logical progression I don't understand why we had to wait so long, and why we had to wait for someone else to do it.

As for the future, I'm of the opinion that Apple will continue to lead, Android will continue to catch up and along with WM7 the three of them will push everything forward and hopefully leave those old giants behind. May they rot in hell for make us suffer for so long!

 

[YoungGun21]

I never thought about that, but that is a great point. Google and Apple have (in terms this forum will understand) PWNED the competition. They came in and took over in a very short period of time. The veterans must have been sitting on their hands to allow this to happen.

 

[zerocool84]

Hmmm, as someone said, smartphones have become the new PC.

The first company to allow tethering to a keyboard, monitor and storage device wins.

That's a good idea but the only company I see that would even do that is Google since it has nothing tied to it to sync to. Apple will never get rid of iTunes syncing and that's a big thing that hurts it in the long run.

 

[Pantlegz]

Bold prediction (and low probability): Either Sprint or T-Mobile will go bankrupt or be bought by Verizon or AT&T. Sprint if they can't get anyone to make WiMax smartphones after LTE begins penetrating Europe and Asia. T-Mobile if they can't get the subscribers (aka cash) to build out an LTE network to compete.

I could sees Sprint possibly going under, T-mobile is backed by Deutsche telekom, one of the largest telephone companies in Europe. I could see them getting pissed that T-Mobile isn't doing well and sell it off or just stop doing business. But going bankrupt isn't going to happen.

 

[Pliablemoose]

That's a good idea but the only company I see that would even do that is Google since it has nothing tied to it to sync to. Apple will never get rid of iTunes syncing and that's a big thing that hurts it in the long run.

Agreed, Apple is too invested in an upgrade path to really make an all in one device, I love my iPad, but its a mis step in the wrong direction.

I think we will see one of the other players make this type of device first as Google is getting locked into the tablet mindset as well.

The next generation of phone CPU/graphic chips should be powerful enough to support something like this.

I want a dock that recharges my phone, has video out, and USB 3.0 that will support a HD dock, and a printer, and the device should pair with a bluetooth keyboard. The phone should support voice dialing via a BT headset.

The phone should support WiMax, and its a done deal.

 

[Deeko]

I never thought about that, but that is a great point. Google and Apple have (in terms this forum will understand) PWNED the competition. They came in and took over in a very short period of time. The veterans must have been sitting on their hands to allow this to happen.

Android is a great product and is expanding rapidly, but I don't think I'd put them in position of "PWNING" anyone just yet.

For as much anti-Blackberry talk I see here, talk about how they'll die off, or only focus on business customers, Blackberry sales are continuing to rise. I don't really understand why anyone assumes they'll fade off.

 

[dguy6789]

I can't wait until they have smartphones that are at least as powerful as current netbooks and allow a mouse, keyboard, monitor, and speakers connection. That will be so awesome.

 

[GrumpyMan]

They do, it's called a laptop, lol.....

 

[dguy6789]

They do, it's called a laptop, lol.....

Huge difference between carrying around a laptop and carrying around a smartphone.

 

[theeedude]

I can't wait until they have smartphones that are at least as powerful as current netbooks and allow a mouse, keyboard, monitor, and speakers connection. That will be so awesome.

It's probably coming within a year. Android smartphones and next gen Android netbooks are basically going to be same chips, just different IO and form factors. So a smartphone with HDMI output and bluetooth or microusb keyboard should be able to do nettop and light HTPC duty. Unless it's an Apple. Then a smartphone + Apple TV + iMac mini is what you'll need to buy

 

[Deeko]

Dual core 1.3ghz snapdragon-based phones are coming soon enough....those will be beefy lil devices.

 

[rudeguy]

Dual core 1.3ghz snapdragon-based phones are coming soon enough....those will be beefy lil devices.

Link? I just got a chubby

 

[Deeko]

http://gizmodo.com/5443976/qualcomm...dragon-smartphones-are-about-to-go-hyperspeed

I was wrong, its 1.3ghz single core and 1.5ghz dual core. No handsets that I've heard of have been announced to use them, but the chips should be out this year.